Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 06-10

Gold is in a strengthening bear market as it fails to make any move up regardless of factors which aid higher prices as selling is seen at higher levels and lack of demand even at lower levels seem to keep the momentum on the downside. Gold continued to form lower highs-lower lows pattern but both the extremes got rejected and it closed with cuts of less than $10. Metal is facing the heat from the sellers as every spike is getting sold into. Even fundamentals supportive of gold failed to make any decisive positive impact on the prices.

On the chart –

Gold is in a bear territory where every rise is getting sold into and new lows are being created every week. Such a trend is being followed ever since it broke the crucial support at $1295. This week, being not only bearish minded gold took support at $1205 which earlier acted as a good support and if this is held we might see some short term relief rally as the overall trend remains bearish. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1205 and bounced higher which had earlier too acted as a good support. If this is held we can see some rally on the upside restricted to $1243 as the metal is largely oversold.

2. Gold’s trend remains intact and it made a new low on closing basis breaking the support of $1217. Since this is breached it can fall towards $1208. If this is broken it can slide till $1198. And if this crucial support gives way it can fall further to $1185 and even lower.

There is no bullish view as the support remains broken. Only thing to take note is the level of $1205, if this holds then a relief rally cannot be ruled out.

Bearish view – Bears are becoming powerful every passing week as the metal is losing its luster even at lower prices. Bears are on the prowl for 8 weeks now and this may continue even further as factors aiding gold prices on the higher side is also failing in this unforgiving bear market. With this trend a breach of $1200 is highly likely and if its achieved then gold can have a nasty ride much lower towards $1180s.

On larger terms, Gold remains in a firm bear grip with prices expected to trend lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, but largely on short side, gold can be sold below $1217 for the targets of $1208 and $1198 with a stop loss placed above $1237. Longer term target $1185.
There are no long trades until the price takes support, though a relief rally cannot be ruled out if $1205 is held.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 30 – Aug 03

Gold is seeing a clear downward momentum creating fresh lows for the year every week on closing basis. It suffered yet another such week where the price fell from the highs of $1230s to test the support before closing near the lows of the week at $1223. Even a weaker dollar index failed to garner any demand for the yellow metal as all rallies were sold into. With the trendline tested in the previous week and a failure to go above indicates loss of momentum and ability to go higher even in a favorable situation. Next week is full of activities again with Fed rate decision being the strongest influencer amongst all.

On the chart –

A clear breakdown is visible where previous support has been tested. Narrowing down to technicals, gold is in a oversold state but such is also not helping the metal to post any gains despite pullbacks happening every week which is used to sell into. With lower lows and lower highs getting created its very much clear that the pressure is on the sell side as no demand is emerging even at lower levels. We have 2 scenarios –

1. There are no possible long trades as the support is broken.

2. Gold is seeing a ride towards the lows of $1200s. Once the support at $1208 breaks it can fall lower. If this is taken out it can head towards its next crucial support at $1198. Once this is breached it can fall to $1185.

There is no bullish view as the support remains broken.

Bearish view – Bears are emerging victorious every week. With bias so strong on the downside along with technical support bears have their way to deal with the prices which they are registering at fresh lows every week on closing basis. Even global situations apt for a respite from the downfall is not aiding rather its making bears more ferocious at eroding the prices. Every rally is getting sold into, with this sort of momentum its very likely that the crucial support zone of $1196-$1200 will give way sooner than expected.

On larger terms, Gold is in a firm bear grip with prices expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, but largely on short side, gold can be sold below $1217 for the targets of $1208 and $1198 with a stop loss placed above $1237. Longer term target $1185.
There are no long trades until the price takes support, though bounces seen in the week can be regarded as long opportunities.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 16-20

Gold slipped over $15 testing the bottom once again which was created last week. Gold’s current scenario is a treacherous one, as technically it seems to have made a bottom which has been tested but a lower close from last week isnt making the bullish picture look stronger. With number of events lined up in the week, its really hard to determine the movement of gold as these can create big moves on either side. All in all gold remains bullish till the low is held, once its broken conclusively bears take the control again.

In the chart –

Gold didnt had a green week as expected rather it created a new low on closing basis but also respected the lows created in the last week suggests confusion in the trend as this low is a very important make or break for the prices moving ahead on a longer term basis. All eyes will be on a stream of fundamental developments due to take place which can create volatile swings in the prices thus there may not be a guarantee that the low will be held in such uncertain situations. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s respecting of lows again suggest the downside is next to over. If this low is held it can move towards $1243. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1260. And if this is taken out it can surge towards $1276.

2. Shorting gold before the low is taken out conclusively may not be a good idea. Once the low is broken it can resume its slide towards $1210-$1200 where next big support can be found.

In the given situation, both bullish and bearish view exists, the pivot being the low created last week. Bulls will win the battle if the low is held and the prices move higher which is more likely. Alternatively bear’s attack will increase with a lot of ferocity once the low is broken. This week should be the decider for the trend as both technically and fundamentally gold is placed at a very crucial point. Maybe the fundamental events take the center stage in deciding the fate of the gold as technically its experiencing push and pull at higher and lower levels.

On larger terms, Gold is sideways and may take any course preferably a bullish one. For the trend to emerge we need to keep an eye on how gold reacts to protecting the lows.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1243 for the targets of $1260 and $1276 with a stop loss placed below $1236.
There are no immediate short trades as the low was respected. Trades come alive if this low of $1236 breaks making gold move towards $1200s.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 09-13

Gold’s continued weakness and an expected turnaround from the lows captured the weekly price action. Gold slid to its lowest point of 2018 but recovered sharply from the lows gaining over $20 before settling for gains of just under $20 mark for the week. This price movement created a double bottom and also respected the weekly trendline support which is a bullish sign and thus a reversal in the trend. Fundamentals were and are as it is but technically the situation has changed in favor of the bulls.

On the chart –

Gold’s reversal from lows speaks for itself about the change in the trend. Technically, now the upmove is supported by patterns which were absent from past few weeks. Gold should also take ques from a falling dollar which may help the price move upward faster than expected. Fundamentally, events are lined up to support higher prices and with a confirmation from technical side journey back towards the breakdown point at $1295 starts which if successfully crossed can lead the metal higher to its 52 week highs. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s respecting of the weekly trendline support suggests the downside is over for sometime if not fully. With this price action gold can move towards $1260. If this is crossed it can rally till $1276. And if this is conquered it can test the crucial point at $1295.

2. There are no short trades as the support was respected.

Bullish view – After 3 weeks of pain, the situation has turned in favor of the bulls who seem to be in a firm control over the scene after having plenty of action-less days. Finally it was a bullish week, and bulls can continue this momentum in the coming days/weeks as price action suggests a reversal in the trend. Alternatively, this bullishness may be short-lived if the breakdown point is not crossed and the price reverses back from there but that’s a slightly longer story as immediate trend is sounding very bullish.

There are no bearish views as gold took support of the trendline.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1260 for the targets of $1276 and $1295 with a stop loss placed below $1243.
There are no immediate short trades as $1243 was respected. Trades come alive if this support breaks or if gold fails to go higher above breakdown point.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 02-06

Gold continued it downtrend falling over $15 in the week creating fresh lows for the current year. This movement was based on the lack of demand even at lower levels as the dollar index supported the price action on the upside but gold failed to prosper on that opportunity. Sentiment overall remains weak since fundamentally some events are supportive of higher prices but technically its suffering from a major breakdown. Its largely expected that gold should find support at its trendline which sort of it already did in the past week but more confirmations are required to solidify any reversal occurring due to taking of support.

On the chart –

Gold remains a bear property as it is finding very hard to attract buyers who seem to have dumped the idea of this yellow metal. Globally many events are shaping up to bolster gold prices but its inability to capitalize on such oozes ample honey for the bears. We have 2 scenarios –

1. For any bullish moves it needs to confirm that the trendline is good enough to provide support thus signaling a reversal in the prices. Though price can move up in short term but its unlikely to change course unless the support is tested.

2. Gold has some more room to fall before it finds support and may climb higher. The prices can fall till $1243. If this is broken then its a really hard time for gold as prices can dip towards $1200s which will be extremely bearish.

There are no bullish views until gold finds support of the trendline.

Bearish view – Bears kept on adding gains on the downside as they were not getting much fight from the bulls. The scope for bear moves remains limited now but if the support is broken then it will be a very gloomy picture for gold and downside can continue.

On larger terms, gold stays firm in the bearish hands with prices expected to head lower towards the support area from where a reversal might be on the cards.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be sold below $1249 for the target of $1243 with a stop loss placed above $1254. If $1243 is broken then it can fall towards $1200.
There are no long trades until the price takes support, though bounces seen before can be treated as long opportunities.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 25-29

Gold continued it downtrend following a breakdown occurred in the week before suffering with cuts of over $10. Even with fundamentals favoring higher gold prices, the metal was unable to redeem itself out of the bear grip which looks to tighten with every passing day till the next support is reached and tested. Among all this negativity bulls can take heart from the fact the monthly 20 day moving average was respected and the prices pulled back from the lows sharply. Even with such a move and a weekly bar, trend reversal cannot be pointed out as the support line remains broken. For things to turn around either it needs to take support of the trendline or go back into the channel for bullish trend to emerge.

On the chart –

Gold kept piling on the negative returns amidst key fundamental event of trade war getting highlighted everyday which must have pushed the prices higher but it also failed to make any substantial positive impact on gold. Even the falling dollar index could not help the metal gain momentum on the upside but it helped cap the downside which may seem to stall if the dollar index remains weak. Its still gloomy for the bulls as its becoming a sell on rise kind of market. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold has an outside chance for an upmove but again it seems limited and possibly could be sold into as nothing has changed in the last week.

2. Gold’s downward journey is intact and a test of the support at the trendline is very likely. Gold failed to rise above the support of $1276, this can follow a retest of $1260. If this is broken it can slide till $1243.

There is no bullish view for the moment as technically gold is in a downtrend.

Bearish view – Bears kept the metal under pressure as they created a fresh low for the year on closing basis. Lower lows formation indicate the strength on the downside and its the better course to sight upon as there seems to be no buyers of gold even at lower levels. With such kind of price action its highly likely the next trendline support will be tested in coming days.

On larger terms, gold remains bearish with the prices expected to head south.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be sold below $1276 for the targets of $1260 and $1243 with a stop loss placed above $1284.
There are no long trades until the price moves back into the channel though bounces can be seen as long opportunities.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 18-22

Gold finally had a decisive week this time around breaking through crucial support on the back of rising dollar after weeks of consolidation. With a fall of over $20, gold saw selling on the last day of the week where it lost ground at a very quick pace. The selloff was not only limited to gold it crept to other commodities as well showcasing the strength of the rising dollar which may continue to rise further adding woes to the yellow metal. With the support broken trend shifts to the hands of bears but even in this situation gold remains a buy on dips as overall trend on larger timeframe is still bullish.

On the chart –

Last week played out to be a decider for the momentum of the yellow metal which fell prey to the bears. New low for the year was registered which speaks plenty itself regarding the shift in the trend but things are not so easily falling to full bear grip as further supports levels are there which if respected might lead to bounce back in gold and thus the trend. On the chart –

1. Gold had a breakdown and support lines were broken, for metal to turn bullish it has to get back into the channel again. Though a rise to retest the channel support cannot be ruled out.

2. Gold cracked through the supports and finally made a decisive move after many days. If it slides further it can go till $1276 where it should find some resistance. If this is broken it can fall towards $1260. If this is breached it can go lower till the support of the long term trend line at $1243.

Bullish view – Nothing much can be viewed as bullish given the movement which happened on Friday. For things to turn bullish price must re-enter the channel.

Bearish view – Bears ripped through the supports crashing gold to this year’s lowest point as they gained momentum on the downside. Bears are here to stay till the channel support which now is the resistance is held and they can drive the prices further lower to test the next support line. The price action and the momentum are with the bears so new lows cannot be ruled out in coming weeks.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bearish after a very long sideways movement trapped into the trading range of $1300-$1370 which has now been conclusively broken. Prices are expected to head lower to test the next support line but bounces towards the previous support cannot be ruled out.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be sold below $1281 for the targets of $1276 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1295. Longer term target $1243.
There are no long trades until the price moves back into the channel.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 11-15

Gold maintained its trend passing the week in a strict trading range where nothing could be stressed upon in terms of bullishness or bearishness. But again the long term trendline was respected which is considered to be a strong casing point for the bulls as the downside seems protected. Given the moves, it can be seen as a clear consolidation going on in gold as now 3 weeks have gone where the metal has been stuck in a range.
Next week is very crucial with lots of fundamental activity which should negotiate a directive move in gold possibly on the upside as the technicals suggest.

On the chart –

Gold is in a clear state of consolidation but a directive move is on the cards as a flurry of events are set to take place in the coming week, highlight being historic meeting between USA’s president Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on 12th. The coming week will definitely provide a trend for the yellow metal given the importance of the events lined up. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold is trading in a range, for it to go higher it must cross the $1308 which has been acting as a stiff barrier from last 3 weeks. If this mark is crossed it can rally till $1317. If this is conquered it can move to its next resistance zone at $1331.

2. There are still no short trades coming alive as the support/trend line is being respected. But if it breaks a fall towards $1281 and lower cannot be ruled out.

Bullish view – Yet again nothing for the taking for either bulls or bears in the past week as the price remained sideways stuck in a tight range. Once again bulls emerged winners on the ground the support of the trendline was held and prices bounced back from there. This move for the 3rd time consecutively suggests bulls are in a strong position and a break on the upside is on the cards as downside seems protected.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold still remains sideways as no direction was found. Gold has been tight-locked between the support and the resistance and a break of either will give a clear picture of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1308 for the targets of $1317 and $1331 with a stop loss placed below $1295.
There are no short trades unless $1281 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1265.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 04-08

Gold is hovering in a range with support and resistance getting tested every week. Yet again the prices moved in a very small band with gold suffering minor cuts of $6 for the week. $1300 got broken again but this is a new normal considering the price action that too within a strict range. The trend line was respected once again and the prices moved back from the lows suggesting the bullishness is yet not over even if $1300 mark is lost.

On the chart –

Gold’s closing below $1300 again doesn’t change the overall trend as support line was respected. Lot of fundamental news are expected which will move the prices in either direction but largely it shall remain rangebound given the current setup of gold. For any trend to set in a directive move is required. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold, for it to continue to mount gains $1295 is a must to be crossed. If this is crossed rally towards $1308 should materialize. And if this resistance zone is crossed it can move higher to $1317.

2. Gold is within its range, for short trades it must break the support/trend line. If $1281 is breached then it can fall towards $1265.

Bullish view – There is nothing much for either bulls or bears to take away but given the support being respected again bulls still have their fire burning and a rally higher cannot be ruled out if support holds.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, gold continues to remains sideways as no direction was found yet. Gold has been locked in between the support and the resistance and a break of either will give the clue of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1295 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1285.
There are no short trades unless $1281 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1265.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 28 – June 01

Gold withstood another volatile week with prices swinging in both directions. Point to note, it gained $10 in such an environment and the most importantly closed above the crucial $1300 mark back again after one week’s fallout from the much hyped range. Such an activity might be purely technical in nature given the prices were outside the bollinger band and a pullback was on the cards, though the price took support at the trendline and retraced back which could be telling another story. If the support is held again it might be an indication of bottoming out and a price reversal.

On the chart –

Gold had a rocky week with prices testing both the support and the resistance but couldn’t manage to latch on the either. The key for last week’s close was the closing above $1300 mark which may speak plenty itself. If the support line is held then green bars cannot be ruled out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1300 suggests trend may have changed. If the support line is held then it can go higher till $1308. If this is crossed it can rally till $1317. And if this is conquered it can move towards the crucial mark at $1331.

2. Alternatively if gold falls below $1295 provided this was a trap for the bulls we can revisit lower levels again at $1281. If this is broken it will clearly indicate a massive shift in trend and lows of $1265 can be touched and even lower.

Bullish view – Bulls had a lot to take from this week, only did they not manage to post gains but conquered the crucial $1300 mark again. Such a closing is clearly bullish and if the support line is held then a move upwards is definitely on. The last week’s move could mean we might have created a bottom and new highs are on the cards as the ascending triangle formation was respected and the prices retraced back after hitting the support (the lowest part of the triangle), a breakout above $1370 will confirm the pattern’s relevance till then it will be in a range.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, gold remains sideways as no concrete direction was found except for the fact that it managed to close above $1300 and got back into the trading range of $1300-$1370.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1308 for the targets of $1317 and $1331 with a stop loss placed below $1298.
There are no short trades unless $1295 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1281.

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