Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 01-05

Gold continues to trade in its range between $1185-$1215. Gold posted cuts of over $9 in the previous week on account of a stronger dollar due to Fed’s hawkish stance over its monetary policy. The range was finally tested on the downside as gold made a low of $1180 before closing above $1190. This again shows that the demand continues to be  high near the support and thus gives a bullish signal.

On the chart –

Gold’s consolidation continues as it was unable to break the range for the 5th straight week. Events failed to direct the metal towards a side thus its getting increasingly tough for gold to find a bias as this rangebound activity is causing confusion and fatigue among the traders. Though a good point is the support was held which suggests there is buying at lower levels so to some extent the downside seems protected. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold respected the support on closing basis. If this is held it can go till $1198. If this is crossed it can rally till $1208. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1217.

2. Short trades might not be the right choice till the $1185 holds. Once its broken it can fall towards $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls were tested and they emerged victorious as $1185 was held convincingly. Buying was visible at lower levels which drove the prices higher. Bullish bets remain intact and will only strengthen on the fact that the test of support was success. If $1185 holds then prices are bound to head higher and break out of this trading range.

Bearish view – Bears tried with all their might to pull down the price below $1185 but failed on the closing basis. For any bearish moves to blossom it should close below $1185.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways. Prices are stuck in a range and a break on either side will decide the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1198 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades gets active once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 24-28

Gold posted a gain of over $5 in yet another week of consolidation. This week was an inside one where there was no higher highs or lower lows. Next week is eventful with Fed’s rate decision which can break this range the market is stuck into as lack of events in past month have failed to give any direction to the metal. With gold respecting the support it can be seen as the event might prove bullish for the prices. Volatility may be increased in the next week owing to the speculation due to the event.

On the chart –

Gold once again got resistance at $1210-$1212 and fell back below $1200. But the taking point is it achieved gains in the week compared to losses it was posting from last 3 weeks and a close above the resistance of $1198. Still its clueless about the direction and a big move is required to ascertain it. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the support of $1198 suggests it can go higher. If this is held it can go to $1208. If this is crossed it can rally till $1217. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1228.

2. Short trades doesnt entice much as the support is held. They come into action once the support of $1185 is taken out for targets of $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls kept on the pressure as they managed to close above the resistance at $1198. For bulls to keep their momentum going they need to defend $1185 which they have done successfully for past 1 month and try to create a new high.

Bearish view – Bears are modestly into the game as they are not allowing the price to close above the psychological $1200. For bearishness to bloom $1185 needs to be taken out.

On larger terms, Gold still remains sideways. Prices may remain rangebound to sideways until a direction is found.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1201 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades go live once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 17-21

Gold seems to continue its consolidation as it barely moved on weekly basis though it swung $25 in the week between the high and the low it created. It was volatile near the end of the week where it fell from the highs to the lows but managed to close up towards the support of $1194-$1198 levels and most importantly it did not break $1185 on the downside. Though this would mark as a 3rd straight week with negative returns but its strictly rangebound cushioned between $1185-$1217 which has acted as the boundaries and once either side is taken down it finds a legit direction. The bulls still have the case as $1185 is not broken.

On the chart –

Gold has not yet found a clear direction as key levels on both upside and downside have been respected. Need to make a compulsive move which will ascertain a breakout from this range directing further course. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had another down week but support was respected. If this support is held it can go back towards $1208. If this is taken out it can rise to $1217. And if this is captured it can rally till $1228.

2. Bearish trades still doesnt have that glitter but it will shine once $1185 is taken out. If so, it can fall till $1162. If the 52 week low is taken out it can fall further towards $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls still not out of the game as the key support of $1185 is being respected. For them to keep up they need to hold the support, and if held moves on the upside cannot be ruled out.

Bearish view – Bears are active as they continue to pullback the prices from the highs and create lows but are unable to press hard as they fail to break the $1185 support. For strong bearish moves $1185 must be broken.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways. Prices may remain rangebound to sideways until a direction is found.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1198 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades go live once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 10-14

Gold almost mirrored the previous week’s move. It remained in the clutches of a defined range but broke the $1200 mark which may cause some panic again in the bullish camp. The region from where the buying was visible is not yet breached even though $1198 has been broken on the chart. The discomforting factor apart from the break of $1200 is the formation of Lower highs and Lower lows which does not emit good vibes for the prices going ahead. The saving grace for the metal maybe the monthly chart which doesnt has room for a big downside given the bolinger bands but that implies to the whole month which is left.

On the chart –

Gold broke the $1200 again in yet another rangebound week. Factors are split for the bullish and bearish cases as data points indicate confusion though a downmove cannot be ruled out once $1185 breaks, till then it may remain bullish. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold latched on to the support of the buying region. If this is held it can head back up to $1198. If this is crossed it can move towards $1208. If this is taken out it can rally till $1217.

2. Again bearish trades doesnt feature much but will open up once $1185 is taken out for the target of $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls were pushed back under $1200, though all is not over as the main support of $1185 is still intact. Bulls need to defend that to keep themselves in the game. If the support holds then a move back towards the recent highs and even higher cannot be ruled out.

Bearish view – Bears found some ammo as they pushed the price back below $1200 but its not done for the trend to go back in their favor. They need to take out $1185 for further downside and if the low of $1160 breaks then $1120s is on the cards.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways as views split on either camp. Prices may remain sideways until a direction is found.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1201 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1194. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades open up once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 03-07

Gold was rangebound and consolidating after a large weekly green bar. It moved between the support and the resistance before finally settling above the crucial $1200 mark for the week. Metal seems to have found some footing at $1198 which is a very important level for the price to take a direction. There was rejection at the highs but it also got support at the lows indicating that fresh bout of buying is happening at lower levels now indicating $1194-$1198 as a demand zone. Another bullish takeaway is it has formed a higher-high and a higher-low after many weeks.

On the chart –

Gold held on to the $1200 level after giving back a very modest $4 in the rangebound week. With supports acting as a strong base, Gold can restart afresh on the upside again. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s holding of $1200 is a strong call for further upmove. Till this is held it can rise towards $1208. If this is crossed it can rally till $1217. If this is taken out it can go till $1228.

2. Shorting is still not viable enough as $1200 was held upon again. They become active once $1185 is taken out.

Bullish view – Bulls had another week in their favor irrespective of the loss which the metal posted. New highs were achieved and the next resistance level tested. The pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows is another factor aiding the bulls. As $1200 was held, chances remain high that the metal will move higher.

Bearishness still doesn’t entice as the supports are being held.

On larger terms, Gold still remains cautiously bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1204 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1198. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades are against the trend and not a good choice, they only open up as a scalping trade till $1185 is held.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 27-31

Gold finally had a green week and that too a big one with gains of more than $20 re-conquering the $1200 back after giving it up just last week. Catalyst to such a massive bar was the sizeable drop in the Dollar influenced by the Jackson Hole event where the Fed presented a dovish stance to the economic policy combined with views of the American president wanting a weaker dollar. Fundamentals played a key role in the switching of tracks of both gold and dollar moving them in opposite directions of their existing trend.

On the chart –

Gold saw a quick turnaround with prices gaining more than $20 rising well above $1200 thus creating more room for upside. Prices gliding through the resistances with so much of ease can only be due to panic and fear which was clearly present in last 14 days once on the downside then on the upside. Now the key is holding of the crucial $1200 level which would decide the fate of the gold. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold ended up above $1200 which is a great sign for further bullish moves. Till its held gold can breathe easy with buyers emerging even in a bear market which gold is still in technically. Once $1208 is taken out it can head higher to $1217. If this level is surpassed it can head towards the next resistance at $1228. Once this is conquered it can rally to $1243 where its bound to find huge resistance.

2. Short trades keep on fading till $1200 is held, they come alive if last week’s low is broken which will trigger fresh round of selling and should take the prices to a new low.

Bullish view – Bulls finally had their way after big gap of 10 whole weeks where they were sidelined. Prices erupted above $1200 as the dollar kept on crashing. It certainly is bullish the way it has closed above key resistances suggesting that more greenery is about to bloom. This kind of price action can take the gold higher to $1243 where lies the ultimate acid test.

Bearishness is for the moment contained as price action denotes the opposite trend.

On larger terms, Gold has turned cautiously bullish and prices are expected to move higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1208 for the targets of $1217 and $1228 with a stop loss placed below $1198. Longer term target $1243.
Short trades are against the trend and not a good choice, it comes into play once last week’s low is broken.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 20-24

Gold’s poor run continued this time breaking the crucial $1200 mark that too on closing basis. The metal saw a big weekly cut of $50 testing support as deep as $1160s before settling considerably higher retracing about 50% of the losses from lows. Such a pullback raises eyebrows over the continuation of the current fall as this move looks to stem it and maybe a trend reversal might be on the cards with a falling dollar aiding it. Gold has seen a cut of $150 in a span of ten weeks which is quite sharp and a pullback or retrace should be around the corner as its deep into oversold category.

On the chart –

Gold continued its downward journey suffering the worst in 52 weeks as it tumbled over $50 intra-week but there were many positives to take away in such a horrible week which saw brisk moves on either sides. Its recovery from the lows was the biggest takeaway which points to a shift/change in the trend if the support holds. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold comes into the buyer’s radar after many weeks as buying was visible at lower levels and the price bounced back strongly from the lows. Above $1185 gold can continue its uptrend towards $1198 where it should find good resistance. Once this is taken out it can shoot till $1208. If this is surpassed it can move towards its next resistance at $1217.

2. Gold is in a bear territory as supports got broken and prices dipped very fast. If $1185 fails to sustain then it can fall back towards $1162. Once this is taken out it can set sights at next support at $1123. Though such a move on immediate basis is looking unlikely given the movement of the metal in the week.

Bullish view – Bulls had much to rejoice after 9 weeks of pain as they held the support at $1160s and the price retraced quite firmly going above the resistance on closing basis. Such a candle oozes lots of positivity which was lost weeks before. Bulls have the momentum in their favor but are against the trend. For bulls to gain supremacy $1200 needs to be reconquered which is looking likely or atleast a retest of such is is definitely on the cards.

Bearish view – Bears continued to stamp their paws as gold posted negative returns. Important levels were taken out which failed to give any resistance on the downside. For bears to keep their trend intact they need to keep the prices under $1185.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways and prices expected to move in either direction as the metal is at crucial point.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1185 for the targets of $1198 and $1208 with a stop loss placed below $1180. Longer term target $1217.
Gold can be sold under $1180 for targets of $1162 and $1123 with stop loss placed above $1185 though this seems less likely when compared against buying.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 13-17

Gold remained in a sell mode even after 8 weeks of downfall creating a fresh yearly low on closing basis. A higher dollar was the culprit this week not allowing the metal to go higher even in global turmoil situations such as sanctions being imposed on Turkey and Russia. Though gold defended $1205 again this week suggesting there maybe a possibility that the metal might have formed a short term bottom but trend largely remains bearish and mostly all rallies will be used to sell into till gold actually breaks above its resistance at $1243.

On the chart –

Gold remained in the red though cuts were less than the previous week. With fundamentals pointing towards higher gold price, this is only helping to curtail the losses per week as the rising dollar is negating all positivity. Key level to watch for further downside is $1205 as once broken it will open up the gate for further fall, till then gold might consolidate with some relief rallies. We have 2 scenarios –

1. For the second week gold defended $1205 and retraced back which might be suggesting a possible short term bottom being formed. Until this is held gold might see some green and can climb towards its resistance area at $1243.

2. Gold continued to post negative returns and formed a lower high. If this trend remains it can fall towards $1208. If this is broken it can test $1198. If this support area gives way it can slide till $1185.

There is no bullish view as support remains broken. Only factor which may help – $1205 is held for 2nd consecutive week and if it continues to hold then rally towards the resistance at $1243 cannot be ruled out.

Bearish view – Gold is creating a fresh yearly low every week on closing basis which is clearly a bearish sign as bulls are losing ground every week. Bears are aided by a strong dollar which should continue to pressure the gold prices on the downside or atleast limit the upside. Technically gold remains in the hand of bears who are getting powerful every passing week as gold is unable to attract fresh money even at lower levels. With the given trend once $1205 is broken then bears can have a feast till $1180s.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish with prices expected to trend lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, but largely on short side, gold can be sold below $1217 for the targets of $1208 and $1198 with a stop loss placed above $1237. Longer term target $1185.
There are no long trades until the price takes support which it did at $1205 creating a short term bottom and till this is held rallies toward $1243 stay on the table.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 06-10

Gold is in a strengthening bear market as it fails to make any move up regardless of factors which aid higher prices as selling is seen at higher levels and lack of demand even at lower levels seem to keep the momentum on the downside. Gold continued to form lower highs-lower lows pattern but both the extremes got rejected and it closed with cuts of less than $10. Metal is facing the heat from the sellers as every spike is getting sold into. Even fundamentals supportive of gold failed to make any decisive positive impact on the prices.

On the chart –

Gold is in a bear territory where every rise is getting sold into and new lows are being created every week. Such a trend is being followed ever since it broke the crucial support at $1295. This week, being not only bearish minded gold took support at $1205 which earlier acted as a good support and if this is held we might see some short term relief rally as the overall trend remains bearish. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1205 and bounced higher which had earlier too acted as a good support. If this is held we can see some rally on the upside restricted to $1243 as the metal is largely oversold.

2. Gold’s trend remains intact and it made a new low on closing basis breaking the support of $1217. Since this is breached it can fall towards $1208. If this is broken it can slide till $1198. And if this crucial support gives way it can fall further to $1185 and even lower.

There is no bullish view as the support remains broken. Only thing to take note is the level of $1205, if this holds then a relief rally cannot be ruled out.

Bearish view – Bears are becoming powerful every passing week as the metal is losing its luster even at lower prices. Bears are on the prowl for 8 weeks now and this may continue even further as factors aiding gold prices on the higher side is also failing in this unforgiving bear market. With this trend a breach of $1200 is highly likely and if its achieved then gold can have a nasty ride much lower towards $1180s.

On larger terms, Gold remains in a firm bear grip with prices expected to trend lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, but largely on short side, gold can be sold below $1217 for the targets of $1208 and $1198 with a stop loss placed above $1237. Longer term target $1185.
There are no long trades until the price takes support, though a relief rally cannot be ruled out if $1205 is held.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 30 – Aug 03

Gold is seeing a clear downward momentum creating fresh lows for the year every week on closing basis. It suffered yet another such week where the price fell from the highs of $1230s to test the support before closing near the lows of the week at $1223. Even a weaker dollar index failed to garner any demand for the yellow metal as all rallies were sold into. With the trendline tested in the previous week and a failure to go above indicates loss of momentum and ability to go higher even in a favorable situation. Next week is full of activities again with Fed rate decision being the strongest influencer amongst all.

On the chart –

A clear breakdown is visible where previous support has been tested. Narrowing down to technicals, gold is in a oversold state but such is also not helping the metal to post any gains despite pullbacks happening every week which is used to sell into. With lower lows and lower highs getting created its very much clear that the pressure is on the sell side as no demand is emerging even at lower levels. We have 2 scenarios –

1. There are no possible long trades as the support is broken.

2. Gold is seeing a ride towards the lows of $1200s. Once the support at $1208 breaks it can fall lower. If this is taken out it can head towards its next crucial support at $1198. Once this is breached it can fall to $1185.

There is no bullish view as the support remains broken.

Bearish view – Bears are emerging victorious every week. With bias so strong on the downside along with technical support bears have their way to deal with the prices which they are registering at fresh lows every week on closing basis. Even global situations apt for a respite from the downfall is not aiding rather its making bears more ferocious at eroding the prices. Every rally is getting sold into, with this sort of momentum its very likely that the crucial support zone of $1196-$1200 will give way sooner than expected.

On larger terms, Gold is in a firm bear grip with prices expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, but largely on short side, gold can be sold below $1217 for the targets of $1208 and $1198 with a stop loss placed above $1237. Longer term target $1185.
There are no long trades until the price takes support, though bounces seen in the week can be regarded as long opportunities.

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