Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 14-18

Gold formed an inside bar as it continued to consolidate gaining nearly $3 for the week where it swung $17 from highs to lows finally closing well above the support. The movement was data driven due to the volatility in dollar index caused mainly by American fundamentals. Even in such a week bullishness was the winning trend as the long term trendline was respected which is acting as a massive support. The week has this year’s first major fundamental event – “Brexit deal vote” which can sway the prices big time in either direction.

On the chart –

Gold made another attempt towards $1300 but failed short by more margin than previous week making a triangle formation as it also was unable to fall towards the lows of last week. After such a big move consolidation was expected as the lead indicators were in overbought territory though the overall trend remains intact as support was held onto effectively. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support yet again, until this is held it can go towards $1296. If this is crossed it can go higher to $1308.

2. Short trades remain active but are losing steam as supports fail to give way and are confined to scalping. A positional short trade can open only once the support breaks.

Bullish view – Bulls made another dash towards $1300 but were denied the crucial mark still they had the week to their favor as the support of the long term trendline was held along with holding of an important support level of $1284. The bulls continue to receive ample reinforcements in shape of a falling dollar index as well as rising fear of recession. For bulls, to go higher they need to take out the high as that would make gold breakout from the consolidation range.

Bearish view – Bears denied the rush towards $1300 again but with a higher margin stiffening the supply zone. Though they are out of play a break of support will ring the bells for them as it would open positional trades which have been long gone.

On larger terms, Gold stays in the grip of bulls with prices expected to move higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1296 and $1308 with a stop loss placed below $1267.
Short trades can be only useful for scalping as they are against the trend.
For more conservative traders a break of high/low of this range would be the opportune moment for taking a fresh positional trade.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 07-11

Gold continued its bull run as it nearly tested $1300 in the week but retraced back to close with gains of over $4. The weekly move tested the support of the long term trendline which turned out to be a big demand zone as expected. With the dollar index showing signs of exhaustion and gold having flag breakouts on upside, its creating a perfect scenario for the yellow metal to conquer $1300 again. The spur in demand for the safe haven is due to high volatility in other asset classes which is another factor aiding the prices.

On the chart –

Gold gyrated between the support and the resistance but still managed to close with gains signalling sustained bullishness in the trend. Gold again had a flag breakout on the upside along with higher highs and higher lows pattern formation suggesting more gains ahead. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support of the long term trendline, till this is held it can move towards $1296. Once this is taken out it can go till $1308.

2. Short trades are losing shine as breakouts are happening on the upside though they are still in play when it comes to scalping.

Bullish view – Bulls remain in the winning ways as they keep on scoring new highs every week. The support of the long term trendline was tested and the price bounced higher showcasing strength of the demand. With gold making flag breakouts on a continuous basis bulls remain quite strong as the trend gets firmer. For bulls to continue their dominance they need to hold the support and newer highs cannot be ruled out till its held. The take out of $1300 convincingly will be a first major victory for the bulls in the year and its looking very likely.

Bearish view – Bears were swift enough to deny $1300 as they eroded the price substantially from the highs, but they have limited scope as positionally gold remains in a firm bull grip.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1296 and $1308 with a stop loss placed below $1267.
Short trades can be only useful for scalping as they are against the trend.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 31 – Jan 04

Gold finally saw the breakout as it rose more than $25 for the week nearly eliminating the loss seen in 2018. The move, which was again a vertical one was so ferocious that it even took out the high of previous week invalidating the double top pattern without any resistance. Such a kind of price action maybe due to the truncated week as volume remains thin in this point of the year but nonetheless it created the stage for the next year which starts with an invigorating bullishness.

On the chart –

Gold now technically is having multiple breakouts along with continued formation of higher highs and higher lows pattern which signals clear trend of bull. With gold having broken through the flag its staged to rise higher. The 3 key technical patterns –

1. Gold is continuing to build the gains on account of the cup and handle breakout at $1233-$1235 which was tested and confirmed in the weeks before.

2. Gold finally managed to break the flag on the upside which is extremely bullish marking a significant shift in trend to bullishness from sideways which it had been long into.

3. The long term trendline has been broken on the upside giving more impetus for price to move forward in an imposing manner.

The chart yet offers 2 scenarios but its compelling on the long side with short trades a very much of least interest given the movement and momentum of gold.

Gold closed above all points of breakout, if the support is held it can go till $1284. If this is taken out it can move till $1296. And if this is taken out it can rally till $1308.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1296 and $1308 with a stop loss placed below $1267.
Short trades can be only useful for scalping as they are against the trend.

Happy New Year !!

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 24-28

Gold continued its uptrend by making a new high well above $1260 before settling for gains of over $17 for the week closing above the psychological $1250. The gains were fueled by geopolitical and political events mainly coming from U.S as investors fled from riskier assets. With the coming week being a truncated one on account of Christmas holidays and also being the last trading week of the year nothing big is expected on either side. Gold unfortunately remained in its flag/channel which invites further sideways movement though the sentiment yet remains bullish given the factors playing out around the globe.

On the chart –

Gold made higher highs and higher lows formation as it marched towards fresh highs giving signals of continued bullishness and a close above $1250 also helped in the cause. With gold testing the breakout level at $1233-$1235 and rebounding all things stand mostly clear regarding the trend. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold ‘s closing above $1251 suggests the trend is intact, till the support is held it can move higher towards $1260. If this is crossed it can go till $1273. And if this is taken out it can rally till $1284.

2. Short trades still hold importance as gold is yet trading inside the flag which gives ample opportunity for shorting the tops/resistances.

Bullish view – Bulls after a week of consolidation marched further higher as they tested the top of the flag/range along with a closing above the resistance and psychological mark of $1250. It was bullish from day one of the week as the support was tested on that day itself and the price saw an almost vertical rally from the lows. Bulls shall continue to enjoy the ride as fundamentals and technicals remain in their favor. Till the support is held and the patterns respected newer highs remains on the cards.

Bearish view – Bears had a point to make as they eroded the price from highs not allowing the breakout. For bears, to keep them alive they need to hold the price inside the flag for any signs of reversal.

On larger terms, Gold continues to trade inside the flag/channel. Prices are expected to be rangebound unless it breaks out.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1260 for the targets of $1273 and $1284 with a stop loss placed below $1251.
Short trades come to play once the flag top is reached which can see reversal to $1260 and $1251.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 17-21

Gold made yet another high before retreating $10 for the week as consolidation and profit booking over took the major sentiment which is often seen after big weekly gains/losses and also highly likely given the time of the year which now draws close to the end sparking holiday mood. The coming week holds the last important event of the year and possibly the trend defining one as all eyes are set upon the U.S Fed’s monetary policy decision and on its future path of rate hikes which will sway both dollar and gold. For gold, it has continued to tread in the bullish path as closings continue to favor it as well as a technical breakout from weekly cup and handle pattern which presses bullishness into the next financial year as well.

On the chart –

Gold remained in the flag but continued to gain strength on the bullish side as the breakout level from the cup and handle pattern was respected with closing above the support of $1236. With this technical breakout, the bigger future course can be sighted upon which is the possible break of the flag on the upside. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the support of $1236 does showcase the relative strength of the trend, till the support is held it can rise to $1243. If this is crossed it can rally till $1251. And if this is taken out it can hurry towards $1260 and next $1273.

2. Short trades remain equally important as gold has not yet breached the flag and prices shall remain sideways, the tops/resistances can give a good opportunity for this kind of trade.

Bullish view – Bulls still have lots to rejoice from a week of negative return. A new high as well as the testing of support of the breakout all goes to laurels of the bulls and infact even deepen the trend in their favor. The week, an important one and also the last full working week for this fiscal year can cement the place of bulls going into the next year. Till the support is held and patterns respected all is set for the bulls for a newer high.

Bearish view – Bears tried to invalidate the pattern but were unsuccessful thus making them look weaker in the coming days/weeks and restricting to only scalp trades. For bears to find any momentum they need to break the bullish patterns so formed.

On larger terms, Gold still continues to move inside the flag/channel even after having a bullish breakout. Prices are expected to be rangebound unless it breaks out.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1243 for the targets of $1251 and $1260 with a stop loss placed below $1236. Longer term target $1273.
Short trades come to play once the flag top is reached which can see reversal to $1251 and $1243.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 10-14

Gold made a new high which was earlier seen in the month of July gaining $26 for the week also registering the highest weekly gain in the second half of this financial year. Prices were aided by an influx of fundamental news as well as a weakening dollar on account of a surge in demand of the yellow metal as risk-off trade continues to unfold. A closing above the previous high does signal more bullishness for the metal ahead as the month remains filled with important events prompting a refuge in this asset class.

On the chart –

Gold had a good outing after many weeks as a large green bar was created breaking through crucial points. Though such a closing is seen as a big positive but the truth yet remains that gold is still moving inside the flag, a break of which will define the actual course. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1243 suggests it has steam to move further ahead, till the level is held it can move to $1251. Once this is crossed it can head higher to $1260. If this is taken out it can travel till $1273 testing the breakdown trendline.

2. Short trades become increasingly important as gold makes it way to top of the flag as a failure to breakout will result in downward movement back inside the flag.

Bullish view – Bulls stomped their way towards new high also touching the psychological mark of $1250 as they closed well above the resistance and the previous high. Many factors come to the aid of bulls as political and fundamental events take center stage echoing the need of risk off trades. For bulls $1260 looks increasing close given the trend and if the flag is broken on the upside gains will get wings.

Bearish view – Nothing much for the bears except for the fact that gold is nearing the top of the flag and a reversal might be on the cards if it fails to breakout.

On larger terms, Gold still remains inside the flag/channel and prices are expected to be rangebound unless it breaks out.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1251 for the targets of $1260 and $1265 with a stop loss placed below $1243. Longer term target $1273.
Short trades come to play once the flag top is reached which can see reversal to $1251 and $1243.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 03-07

Gold faced another sideways week which was encapsulated between the support and the resistance. The range was bigger than the earlier week with price swinging $18 inbetween highs and lows accredited to the nature of the week which was full of important fundamental activities from which gold is to take cues in short/mid term. Important takeaway remains much similar, it closed above the support conclusively while the demand was visible at the lower level and supply at higher. Such kind of movement can be widely anticipated as overall the metal is pinned to a channel/flag.

On the chart –

Gold had a no show kind of week where the range of the swings was deeper but the actual outcome was negligible. Still it sports a trend as the ongoing bullishness is preserved as the support was held. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold held on to $1217 yet again, till its respected it can move higher to $1228. If this is crossed it can go till $1236. And if this is taken out it can rally till $1243 with $1251 being the next target.

2. Short trades does favor the current setup in which the prices are moving but mainly through scalping as positional ones come live once the flag is broken on the downside for targets of $1185 and $1162.

Bullish view – Bulls didnt had much to rejoice excepting the fact the support was held onto and demand was visible at lower levels. For the trend to remain bullish supports need to be held along with newer highs being achieved as more assistance could be lent to gold via a move in dollar index given the outcome of a crucial fundamental event.

Bearish view – Bears too couldn’t take anything out of the week as their show was interrupted by an upsurge in prices. The consoling factor being a lower high and lower low formation and yet again defending the resistance. For bears to put up a scene they need to either break the flag on the downside or take the prices off highs from the top of the flag.

On larger terms, Gold remains inside the flag/channel and prices are expected to be rangebound.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1228 for the targets of $1236 and $1243 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1251.
Short trades come to play once the flag support is broken which can lead to $1185 and $1162 till then its a perfect scalping tool.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 26-30

Gold moved forward in its set path by $2 in a sideways week which is generally followed after a large movement. It remained rangebound stuck inbetween the support and the resistance in a not so lively week still exploring further highs which it was denied upon the closing. The week brings some cheer to the metal as it is marked by an important fundamental event which can again set big gains/losses in motion. A higher high and a higher low formation continues to garner bullishness for the metal.

On the chart –

Gold had a sober week with swings of $12 contained in the range defined by the support and resistance. Facts still pursue bulls as technically it has created a bullish candle with $1217 gaining as a better support for short term. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s positive closing keeps in track the trend, till $1217 is respected gold can move to $1228. If this is crossed it can head towards $1236. If this is taken out it can climb towards $1243 with $1251 being the next target.

2. Short trades keep coming as this is a choppy market. It can be well used for scalping till the flag breaks on the downside opening targets of $1185 and $1162.

Bullish view – Bulls had another week to their name as they tried to conquer $1228 again. Though not a big achievement this week, still gains suggest there is buying at the lows which is faced by a supply at the highs/resistances. Bulls can continue to expand their presence till the support is held as the tide is currently in their favor and minor things can prove to be of major importance given the direction its set upon after touching the channel low a week before.

Bearish view – Bears successfully pushed back the prices from the highs below $1228. For the bears, such activities are of prime importance as trend is not decided yet and gold remains choppy. For them to hand a striking blow, they need to break the channel/flag on the downside or push back the prices from the top of the channel/flag until then positional trades to be termed bearish in nature remains insignificant.

On larger terms, Gold continues to move in the flag/channel and prices are expected to be rangebound.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1228 for the targets of $1236 and $1243 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1251.
Short trades come to play once the flag support is broken which can lead to $1185 and $1162 till then its a perfect scalping tool.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 19-23

Gold continued to flag gaining over $11 in another big range week where again a near $30 swing was visible. Gold took support at the flag’s low of $1196-$1198 while rising as high as $1225 which acted as a barrier making the price to finally settle at $1221 which is a good sign for the bulls as the support of $1217 showed strength.With political tensions cooling of a bit the yellow metal rose against the theory of safe haven as dollar continued its slide downwards. Clearly, by the look of the week’s price action gold technically is moving in a flag which got confirmed and a break of which on either side should give a clearer direction till then it may seem a choppy range bound trading between the boundaries of the flag.

On the chart –

Gold regained a lot of lost ground which it shed in the week before owing to a falling dollar and the technical confirmation of a flag being formed in larger timeframes. Now, this flag can lead to outbreak of both bullish and bearish moves once price moves outside of it so in simple terms gold has returned to its border trading thus has more of a neutral bias than bullish or bearish till a trend is confirmed.

1. Gold has closed above the support of $1217, till this is held its expected to head higher to $1228. once this is crossed it can lead to $1236. And if this is crossed it can climb till $1243 with $1251 being the next target.

2. Short trades a plenty in this rangebound movement but primarily focused on scalping by selling the tops/resistance. Once the flag support breaks it can fall to levels of $1185 and $1162

Bullish view – Bulls had saved themselves by defending the support and dutifully the price rallied from the lows to hit the resistances. The trend seems to remain intact for the bulls but they need to keep defending flag supports which will certainly trail higher due to the nature of the flag. On a brighter view, gold has tested the bottom of the range and is expected to now test the highs so more rallies on the upside remain on the cards.

Bearish view – Bears fought hard to break the support but failed owing to a weakening dollar and adverse fundamentals. For them to carry out fresh activities they need to break the flag on the downside till then they can have a push and pull inbetween supports and resistances.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways as range bound movement takes the center stage. and prices are expected to move in a range until a direction is decided via the break of it.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1228 for the targets of $1236 and $1241 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1251.
Short trades come to play once the flag support is broken which can lead to $1185 and $1162 till then its a perfect scalping tool.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 12-16

Gold had a terrible outing falling $23 in the largest bar created in last 4 weeks. Things responsible for triggering a safe haven selloff was a stalemate reaction to Iran’s sanctions and the extremely important mid-term elections which turned into a biggest disappointment for traders as markets hardly moved given the gravity of the event. The Fed’s policy again dragged the metal further down as it kept on the talks of hiking rates. All in all the fundamental aspect was a big let down for the bulls but all is yet not lost as it closed above the support of $1208.

On the chart –

Gold suffered the worst of the last 3 months breaking many levels in a single week accredited to risk on trades which stole the limelight. This fall may also be considered as a retracement to the rise which it had in short duration. Holding on to supports around $1200 more crucial for the trend to remain intact and if held bounces cannot be ruled out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a massive red bar but latched on to the support of $1208. If this is held it can go till $1217. Once this is crossed it can move till $1228. And if this is taken out it can test $1236 again.

2. Short trades definitely get some color but again it will be helpful for scalpers as positionally the bull trend remains intact. A break of $1198 conclusively will be the start of the bear run.

Bullish view – Bulls suffered a crushing defeat as influential factors failed to help the prices move higher. The buying interest has faded but not zeroed as $1208 was respected. For bulls to keep the trend intact, they have to defend the supports majorly $1198 followed by $1208.

Bearish view – Bears ruined the party by knocking off gains of last 3 weeks in a single bar. Every rise was getting sold into ferociously creating a sense of panic among the bulls. For bears to gain control over the trend they must takeout $1198 as once broken it will yield into a major flag breakdown in weekly timeframe.

On larger terms, Gold has turned into cautious bull and prices are expected to be sideways to higher as consolidation is expected after such a big fall.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1212 for the targets of $1217 and $1228 with a stop loss placed below $1206. Longer term target $1236.
Short trades come back into the scene once $1198 gives way as it can lead to $1185 and $1162 till then its a perfect scalping tool.

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