Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 19-23

Gold continued to flag gaining over $11 in another big range week where again a near $30 swing was visible. Gold took support at the flag’s low of $1196-$1198 while rising as high as $1225 which acted as a barrier making the price to finally settle at $1221 which is a good sign for the bulls as the support of $1217 showed strength.With political tensions cooling of a bit the yellow metal rose against the theory of safe haven as dollar continued its slide downwards. Clearly, by the look of the week’s price action gold technically is moving in a flag which got confirmed and a break of which on either side should give a clearer direction till then it may seem a choppy range bound trading between the boundaries of the flag.

On the chart –

Gold regained a lot of lost ground which it shed in the week before owing to a falling dollar and the technical confirmation of a flag being formed in larger timeframes. Now, this flag can lead to outbreak of both bullish and bearish moves once price moves outside of it so in simple terms gold has returned to its border trading thus has more of a neutral bias than bullish or bearish till a trend is confirmed.

1. Gold has closed above the support of $1217, till this is held its expected to head higher to $1228. once this is crossed it can lead to $1236. And if this is crossed it can climb till $1243 with $1251 being the next target.

2. Short trades a plenty in this rangebound movement but primarily focused on scalping by selling the tops/resistance. Once the flag support breaks it can fall to levels of $1185 and $1162

Bullish view – Bulls had saved themselves by defending the support and dutifully the price rallied from the lows to hit the resistances. The trend seems to remain intact for the bulls but they need to keep defending flag supports which will certainly trail higher due to the nature of the flag. On a brighter view, gold has tested the bottom of the range and is expected to now test the highs so more rallies on the upside remain on the cards.

Bearish view – Bears fought hard to break the support but failed owing to a weakening dollar and adverse fundamentals. For them to carry out fresh activities they need to break the flag on the downside till then they can have a push and pull inbetween supports and resistances.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways as range bound movement takes the center stage. and prices are expected to move in a range until a direction is decided via the break of it.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1228 for the targets of $1236 and $1241 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1251.
Short trades come to play once the flag support is broken which can lead to $1185 and $1162 till then its a perfect scalping tool.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 12-16

Gold had a terrible outing falling $23 in the largest bar created in last 4 weeks. Things responsible for triggering a safe haven selloff was a stalemate reaction to Iran’s sanctions and the extremely important mid-term elections which turned into a biggest disappointment for traders as markets hardly moved given the gravity of the event. The Fed’s policy again dragged the metal further down as it kept on the talks of hiking rates. All in all the fundamental aspect was a big let down for the bulls but all is yet not lost as it closed above the support of $1208.

On the chart –

Gold suffered the worst of the last 3 months breaking many levels in a single week accredited to risk on trades which stole the limelight. This fall may also be considered as a retracement to the rise which it had in short duration. Holding on to supports around $1200 more crucial for the trend to remain intact and if held bounces cannot be ruled out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a massive red bar but latched on to the support of $1208. If this is held it can go till $1217. Once this is crossed it can move till $1228. And if this is taken out it can test $1236 again.

2. Short trades definitely get some color but again it will be helpful for scalpers as positionally the bull trend remains intact. A break of $1198 conclusively will be the start of the bear run.

Bullish view – Bulls suffered a crushing defeat as influential factors failed to help the prices move higher. The buying interest has faded but not zeroed as $1208 was respected. For bulls to keep the trend intact, they have to defend the supports majorly $1198 followed by $1208.

Bearish view – Bears ruined the party by knocking off gains of last 3 weeks in a single bar. Every rise was getting sold into ferociously creating a sense of panic among the bulls. For bears to gain control over the trend they must takeout $1198 as once broken it will yield into a major flag breakdown in weekly timeframe.

On larger terms, Gold has turned into cautious bull and prices are expected to be sideways to higher as consolidation is expected after such a big fall.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1212 for the targets of $1217 and $1228 with a stop loss placed below $1206. Longer term target $1236.
Short trades come back into the scene once $1198 gives way as it can lead to $1185 and $1162 till then its a perfect scalping tool.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 05-09

Gold had a week of consolidation and back-testing the supports after rising over $50 from the lows. It was again a big week where it swung over $25 from lows to highs, where it went as low as $1212 testing its breakout region while hitting the highs of $1237 testing its resistance. Probably the nature of the coming week might have prompted such a move as its filled with important fundamental activities which can lead to sharp moves in the prices, the week can see a similar reaction mirroring the last week but on the upside. Being a volatile week ahead and things will turn either ways swiftly, its better to hedge with an option rather than using a stop loss as they can be wiped in minutes and prices can reverse again.

On the chart –

Gold remained unchanged in a big range week. The bar created does signal bullishness as lows were bought into rather quickly and the price closed well above the support of $1228. Now, till the support is held the prices can move higher. On the chart –

1. Gold had a swing towards the downside but the support was held at the end of the week. Till this holds it can move to $1243. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1251. Once this is crossed it can climb to $1260.

2. Short trades still remain at the bay given the support was held again but then it will be useful in the volatility. A sell on highs/resistances can be observed.

Bullish view – Bulls were again on top as the metal saw buying at lower levels leading it back above the support of $1228. With uncertainties taking the center stage in the week, bulls give themselves another good chance to create a new high after having back-tested the support in the previous week. For bulls to keep the pressure on, they need to take out the 200 dma on the weekly time frame along with protecting the supports.

There is no bearish view as price action still remains bullish.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1236 for the targets of $1243 and $1251 with a stop loss placed below $1228. Longer term target $1260.
Short trades continues to remain muted but they can be useful for scalping in the volatility.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 29 – Nov 02

Gold had another bullish week gaining more than $6 closing above its resistance at $1228. Week was another higher high and higher low one where gold moved over $23 testing the crucial $1243 whilst taking support around $1220 before closing at $1233. The continuous formation of this pattern along with testing next crucial levels does showcase the strength gold is currently displaying even as the dollar index is failing to support high gold prices. Driving factor for gold is the looming uncertainty caused by the geopolitical events and upcoming elections.

On the chart –

Gold rose for the 4th consecutive week dismantling the bear phase which it was gripped in. As the key events draw close its highly anticipated that this asset class will attract more and the prices should go northwards amidst high volatility. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had another strong week where it closed above the resistance of $1228, Now if this is held it can move higher to $1243. If this is taken out it can move till $1251. Once this is crossed it can rally till $1260.

2. Short trades doesnt suit the trend.

Bullish view – Bulls raged ahead for 4th straight week offsetting the earlier losses created in the span of 10 weeks before. Higher highs and higher lows continue to be formed which is giving more impetus to the bulls along with prevailing uncertainty. As expected $1243 was tested, now once this is taken out a huge move is on the cards as this will clear a big bottleneck. The key to amassing gains remains with the support being respected.

There lies no bearish view given the performance of the gold on the upside.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1236 for the targets of $1243 and $1251 with a stop loss placed below $1228. Longer term target $1260.
Short trades still remains against the trend, though they can be useful for scalping.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 22-26

Gold continued its uptrend as it rose over $8 for the week. The price action was a breakaway style one with $1217 taken out by a gap and this gap now becomes a key support. Uncertainties and rising political drama should fuel the demand for the yellow metal as Mid-Term elections are just few days away. Odds are extremely high for gold to create new highs every week till the support is respected.

On the chart –

Gold had a breakaway move since the first trade of the week which created a gap which now acts as a support for prices moving ahead. This is particularly a very important one as for gold to continue further up this has to be respected. Pattern of higher highs and higher lows is clearly evident which suggests bullishness is set to continue. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a breakaway gap and now $1217 acts as a big support. Till its held it can move up till $1236. If thats taken out it can head higher to test the crucial $1243. Once this is conquered then it can rise till $1260.

2. Short trades unfortunately are cornered by continuous breakouts happening on the bullish side. Scalping trades can be the effective trades on the short side till a change in trend is observed.

Bullish view – Bulls continue to storm ahead as they create new highs every week. The trend seems to have finally changed to bullish as patterns and price movement are giving the exact picture of the sentiment. With key levels being taken out by force is a sign that bulls have taken control and this should definitely grow in size in coming days. For bulls to keep accelerating they need to protect the newly formed supports as well as original ones which decided the the fate of the trend.

There is no bearish view as price action is too bullish for the moment.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1228 for the targets of $1236 and $1243 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1260. Short trades doesnt suit the trend, they can be useful for scalping.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 15-19

Gold finally broke its trading range as it rose over $14 for the week closing above $1215. The week was a big one where it moved nearly $45 from the lows to the highs where the gains were attributed to a sharp decline in the dollar index in the later half of the week. Gold made a 10-week high on account of risk-off trade being stepped up due to rising bond yields. This breakout is extremely bullish and the high of the range now becomes the support as gold will get costlier.

On the chart –

Gold made a move on the upside after being trapped in the range for nearly 2 months. The breakout seals the direction towards bullishness and fresh highs are on the cards. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a bullish breakout and if $1215 holds it can rise till $1228. Once this is crossed it can rally till $1243. And if this is taken out it can test the highs at $1260.

2. Short trades definitely are not the flavor as gold had bullish breakout.

Bullish view – Bulls finally won the battle as they were able to cross $1215 on closing basis. This sets the tone for coming weeks as it aint a minor breakout. Bulls now have the liberty and the required firepower to make the price go higher. Till $1215 holds gold can keep on creating fresh highs and should atleast test $1243 which was its breakdown point.

There is no bearish view as range was broken on the upside.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1217 for the targets of $1228 and $1243 with a stop loss placed below $1208. Longer term target $1260. Short trades dont have much value, they can only be worthy if $1215 breaks or can be used to scalp.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 08-12

Gold swung nearly $25 in the week testing its support and resistance as it continued to trade in the defined range of $1185-$1215 before closing with gains of $12 for the week. Gold closed above $1200 after a month even on account of a higher dollar index which suggests there might be more gains to come once the range gets broken on the upside. Another bullish week went by giving fresh lead to the bulls.

On the chart –

Gold remained in its range but gave a positive signal by closing above the crucial $1200. Though it was again a directionless week but plenty to take away from it as it formed a higher high and a higher low formation giving a deeper edge to the bulls apart from the significantly stronger closing. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1200 speaks plenty itself. If it manages to defend the support it can head towards $1208. If this is taken out it can move to $1217. Once this is conquered it can rally till $1228.

2. There are no short trades in the offing as the support was respected. They come online once $1185 breaks for targets of $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bull’s show of strength was quite visible as the closing was above $1200 since the support was defended perfectly. Gold is trying to gain momentum on the bullish side steadily but can only be confirmed once it breaks out of the range. Stronger moves are expected once $1215 is taken out as it been a hurdle for past many weeks.

Bearishness fails to lure as the the support was held. They become attractive once $1185 breaks.

On larger terms, Gold still remains sideways but with a mild bullish bias. Prices remain stuck in the range and a break on either side will decide the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1208 for the targets of $1217 and $1228 with a stop loss placed below $1195. Longer term target $1243.
Short trades go live once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 01-05

Gold continues to trade in its range between $1185-$1215. Gold posted cuts of over $9 in the previous week on account of a stronger dollar due to Fed’s hawkish stance over its monetary policy. The range was finally tested on the downside as gold made a low of $1180 before closing above $1190. This again shows that the demand continues to be  high near the support and thus gives a bullish signal.

On the chart –

Gold’s consolidation continues as it was unable to break the range for the 5th straight week. Events failed to direct the metal towards a side thus its getting increasingly tough for gold to find a bias as this rangebound activity is causing confusion and fatigue among the traders. Though a good point is the support was held which suggests there is buying at lower levels so to some extent the downside seems protected. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold respected the support on closing basis. If this is held it can go till $1198. If this is crossed it can rally till $1208. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1217.

2. Short trades might not be the right choice till the $1185 holds. Once its broken it can fall towards $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls were tested and they emerged victorious as $1185 was held convincingly. Buying was visible at lower levels which drove the prices higher. Bullish bets remain intact and will only strengthen on the fact that the test of support was success. If $1185 holds then prices are bound to head higher and break out of this trading range.

Bearish view – Bears tried with all their might to pull down the price below $1185 but failed on the closing basis. For any bearish moves to blossom it should close below $1185.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways. Prices are stuck in a range and a break on either side will decide the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1198 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades gets active once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 24-28

Gold posted a gain of over $5 in yet another week of consolidation. This week was an inside one where there was no higher highs or lower lows. Next week is eventful with Fed’s rate decision which can break this range the market is stuck into as lack of events in past month have failed to give any direction to the metal. With gold respecting the support it can be seen as the event might prove bullish for the prices. Volatility may be increased in the next week owing to the speculation due to the event.

On the chart –

Gold once again got resistance at $1210-$1212 and fell back below $1200. But the taking point is it achieved gains in the week compared to losses it was posting from last 3 weeks and a close above the resistance of $1198. Still its clueless about the direction and a big move is required to ascertain it. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the support of $1198 suggests it can go higher. If this is held it can go to $1208. If this is crossed it can rally till $1217. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1228.

2. Short trades doesnt entice much as the support is held. They come into action once the support of $1185 is taken out for targets of $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls kept on the pressure as they managed to close above the resistance at $1198. For bulls to keep their momentum going they need to defend $1185 which they have done successfully for past 1 month and try to create a new high.

Bearish view – Bears are modestly into the game as they are not allowing the price to close above the psychological $1200. For bearishness to bloom $1185 needs to be taken out.

On larger terms, Gold still remains sideways. Prices may remain rangebound to sideways until a direction is found.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1201 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades go live once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 17-21

Gold seems to continue its consolidation as it barely moved on weekly basis though it swung $25 in the week between the high and the low it created. It was volatile near the end of the week where it fell from the highs to the lows but managed to close up towards the support of $1194-$1198 levels and most importantly it did not break $1185 on the downside. Though this would mark as a 3rd straight week with negative returns but its strictly rangebound cushioned between $1185-$1217 which has acted as the boundaries and once either side is taken down it finds a legit direction. The bulls still have the case as $1185 is not broken.

On the chart –

Gold has not yet found a clear direction as key levels on both upside and downside have been respected. Need to make a compulsive move which will ascertain a breakout from this range directing further course. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had another down week but support was respected. If this support is held it can go back towards $1208. If this is taken out it can rise to $1217. And if this is captured it can rally till $1228.

2. Bearish trades still doesnt have that glitter but it will shine once $1185 is taken out. If so, it can fall till $1162. If the 52 week low is taken out it can fall further towards $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls still not out of the game as the key support of $1185 is being respected. For them to keep up they need to hold the support, and if held moves on the upside cannot be ruled out.

Bearish view – Bears are active as they continue to pullback the prices from the highs and create lows but are unable to press hard as they fail to break the $1185 support. For strong bearish moves $1185 must be broken.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways. Prices may remain rangebound to sideways until a direction is found.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1198 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades go live once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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