Gold’s weekly outlook: May 20-24

Gold had a big week ranging over $28 finally ending with cuts of $8 closing near the lows of the week. The metal saw a huge upward rally on day one closing over crucial $1300 which was erased completely by following 4 down days resulting in failed attempt to break through the flag/pattern thus encouraging the bear cartel to persevere with the trend. The rejection at the top was inline with the trendline resistance making it even more heftier for any fresh upmove. The trend remains bearish and increases the potential for more incremental selling as gold was unable to breakout.

On the chart –

Gold had a failed attempt to breakout of the flag/pattern and adding to the woes $1300 was rejected comfortably indicating heavy selling pressure at the higher levels. This kind of move suggests the bearish trend continues to persist. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Bulls made a mockery of the initial rally as they failed to keep the prices afloat resulting in negative week and the price remaining inside the flag thus keeping the bearish trend alive.

2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1273. If this is broken it can move to $1260. And if this is taken out it can fall towards $1248.

Bulls had a failed attempt at the breakout making them stay at the sidelines again.

Bearish view – Bears clawed back over $28 from the highs continuing their assault as they prevented the metal from breaking out. The bear strength was clearly visible when the price hit the resistance of the trendline and collapsed even when fundamentals were not that supportive of such a fall. For bears to keep the trend intact they need to prevent gold from breaking out and new lows can be visited with next major support area being $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1273 for the targets of $1260 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1287.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 13-17

Gold continued to consolidate in $15 range but this time the expansion was on the upside unlike the previous weeks, finally closing with gains of $7. The uptrend was halted as the price action created a double top formation directly inverse to previous week’s double bottom formation which continue to suggest the trend still remains bearish in-spite of favorable fundamentals which failed to keep the price at higher levels.

On the charts –

Gold remained rangebound unable to break through the flag even after having a fairly good week after nearly a month. The closing still remains the key indicator of a bear market consolidation given the price action. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Bulls still remain on sidelines as they failed to build on the gains.

2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1284. If this is taken out it can fall to $1273. And if this is breached it can slide towards $1260.

Bullish views remain dull unless gold breaks through the flag on upside.

Bearish view – Bears were able to to bring the price down from highs comfortably with fundamentals mostly against them indicating the metal is having selling pressure at the highs. For bears to continue having the trend in their favor they need to stop the price from breaking out from the flag with next major support seen near $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1277 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1289. Longer term target $1248.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 06-10

Gold continued to trade in the defined range similar to the previous week ending with cuts of more than $6. The week saw gold getting battered towards the low again as the Fed’s policy outcome was dovish for the dollar. The week again has important fundamental news majorly the U.S – China trade talks which is presumed to be at the last level of round of talks. Gold failed to create a new high even after having a positive opening rather it closed below the support again allowing the bearish trend to get stronger on every passing week.

On the chart –

Gold moved in a range showing indications of bear market consolidation as it was unable to breach highs or lows of previous week. The pattern breakdown was again retested and yet again confirmed solidifying the bearish trend. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Bulls continue to remain unwanted as the breakdown continues excepting scalp trading.

2. Gold closed below the support, till this is held it can move towards $1273. Once this is breached it can slide to $1260. If this fails to hold it can fall to $1248.

Bullish bets remain unattractive as breakdown continues, they only come in contention once a breakout on upside happens.

Bearish view – Bears resumed the attack after a week as they pushed the price back towards the low but failed to register a new one. The bearish bets saw a massive surge once the high of the previous week was respected and the price reversed. For bears, the technicals remain in their favor as the breakdown continues allowing room for further downside with the next crucial support area being $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1278 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1289. Longer term target $1248.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 29 – May 03

Gold made a new low before settling near the highs for the week. Again it was a $20-$22 ranged week where gold posted gains of $13 which can be considered as a retracement from the lows as prevailing situations did not alter much to enable a shift in the trend. The week has important fundamental events with the spotlight on Fed’s interest rate decision which will generate lot of volatility with large moves expected on either side. Still the trend remains in the favor of bears till a breakout happens on the upside.

On the chart –

Gold made lower highs and lower lows formation again indicating the strength on the upside might be limited. The pattern breakdown continues to play as it was retested again in the last week and got respected. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Bulls remain sidelined as they failed to breakout excepting scalp trades though the closing can be eyed upon as a first mark towards bullishness.

2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1284. If this is taken out it can fall to $1273. And if this is breached it can slide towards $1260.

Bullish view – Bulls can have some cheer as they finally had a good week and the closing was on their favor though lot has to be done to get the trend back to bull. Breakout is required for bulls to over power bears again.

Bearish view – Bears can also have some cheer as they created a new low but failed to hang on to it. The formation of lower highs and lower lows continue to aid the bears to keep the trend intact. The pattern breakdown continues and new lows can be expected till it is respected with next major support area being $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1284 for the targets of $1273 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1296.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 22-26

Gold continued its downtrend falling $15 in the week which again was a $20-$22 ranged one. The fresh decline raises the bar for further downside as technical support of a pattern gave way which was also retested it the week itself allowing it to become an immediate resistance for the price going ahead. Fundamental news keep coming out and last week saw the re-surface of much talked ‘impeachment’ of American President which can again sway the prices. The bearish trend is getting stronger on every passing week given the price movement.

On the chart –

Gold moved only down after it had opened indicating the metal indeed has been under immense selling pressure ever since it had broken down. Another pattern breakdown is playing out and the price is expected to head lower enhancing bearish trend. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Bulls continue to remain off the grid given the breakdowns happening excepting scalp trading.

2. Gold closed well below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1273. If this is taken out it can fall to $1260. And if this is broken it can slide towards $1248.

Bullish view remains scanty to nil given the trend development.

Bearish view – Bears stomped forward eroding another $15 from the value of gold as trend continues to deepen owing to the breakdowns. Bears registered a fresh low as risk-on continues to gather steam. More downside room has been created after last week’s move. For bears to remain in the driving seat they need to keep the price below the supports and new lows can be expected with the next major support area being $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1271 for the targets of $1260 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1284.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 15-19

Gold continued to consolidate in a $20-$22 band with actual movement being less than a dollar maintaining the bearish momentum. The highs were sold into as risk-on re-emerged strongly owing to fundamental developments and better than expected data from America. The bar created looks very bearish and fresh lows are expected as tensions around the globe seem to take a breather.

On the chart –

Gold respected the breakdown by having a closing under the red trendline after it broke through it in the early part of the week. The move tries to confirm the shift in the trend to bearish. On the chart –

1. Bulls continue to remain out of action as they failed to prop-up the prices excepting scalp trading.

2. Gold closed below the support, till this is respected it can move towards $1284. If this is taken out it can fall to $1273. And if this gives way it can slide to $1260.

Bullish view – Bulls tried their best to turn the trend back in their favor but failed badly giving a red flag to bullish bets yet again.

Bearish view – Bears came out as the winners at the end of the week as they pushed the price back by $20 from the highs making it close below the red trendline again suggesting the breakdown continues. For bears to continue their assault they need to keep the price below the supports and new lows can be expected with next major support area being $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold remains bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1289 for the targets of $1284 and $1273 with a stop loss placed above $1298. Longer term target $1260.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 08-12

Gold had a muted week in terms of actual gain/loss as it was in consolidation after suffering a big red weekly bar in the previous week. The yellow metal moved in $25 range testing the support and the resistance ending with cuts of mere $1. Some notable events are lined up in the week ahead with “FOMC Meeting Minutes” being the most important one which can move the prices in either direction but the trend remains bearish as the breakdown was respected and the price closed fairly below that level.

On the chart –

Gold after suffering the breakdown continued its downtrend creating lower highs and lower lows formation. The red trendline was respected suggesting the upside may now remain capped and rallies are getting sold into. With global risk-on trade having a fresh life its difficult for gold to hang on at high levels unless trend changes again. On the chart –

1. Bulls remain on sidelines as the breakdown was tested and respected excepting scalp trading.

2. Gold closed below the support line, till this is held it can move towards $1284. Once this is crossed it can slide to $1273. And if this is broken it can fall further to $1260.

Bullish bets remain out of contention until gold resumes the uptrend by giving a positive breakout from the flag.

Bearish view – Bears continued the assault as they eroded the prices further creating a new weekly low along with nibbling away the gains by $1. Bears were active throughout the week as the prices were pegged back from highs every time adding more strength to the trend. Fundamentals seem to be working in favor of bears and till the support of the breakdown line is held prices can fall further towards the next major support area of $1236-$1240.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bearish and prices are expected to head lower.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought once it breaks out of the flag or at the bottom of the flag/channel.
Gold can be sold under $1289 for the targets of $1284 and $1273 with a stop loss placed above $1298. Longer term target $1260.
A sell-on-rallies can be useful under current scenario.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 25-29

Gold had another green week with gains of over $12 now comfortably placed above the $1300 level. The week’s bar was again a $20-$22 one which extended on the upside having touched the $1320 mark. A dovish Fed was the main reason behind the upmove which also will remain the biggest catalyst for the price moving forward given there will be no rate hikes in the current year. Key levels got crossed again suggesting more bullishness ahead as growth fears are gripping the global economies hard and fast.

On the chart –

Gold had a third consecutive green week with closing happening above previous week’s highs. As the fundamental data around the world unravels, its getting clearer that recession and growth fears might come true which inturn will push up the demand for the yellow metal thus new highs cannot be ruled out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can move towards $1318. Once this is crossed it can rally to $1327. If this is taken out it can move till $1341.

2. Short trades are still not valid given the price movement which is extremely bullish. They come into picture once the support gets broken for the targets of $1284 and $1273.

Bullish view – Bull had another great outing where new highs were reached and the support of $1296-$1300 was perfectly defended. The fall in dollar helped the price catapult towards $1318s. Fundamentals continue to encourage higher gold price as fears regarding growth have spiked and important events are lined up which should have a big hand in moving the prices. For bulls to head higher they need to defend the supports.

Bearish view continue to fade given the strength of the current trend.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1318 for the targets of $1327 and $1341 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1356.
Dips towards support can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.

Short trades come into the picture once the support gets broken for targets of $1284 and $1273.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 18-22

Gold faced another week of consolidation where the price moved between a range of $21 finally ending with gains of $4. Both, the support and the resistance were tested as gold managed to conquer $1300 again on closing basis. The long term trendline was once again tested and the price bounced back suggesting it holds good value and acts as a massive protection from downside. Till this support is held the prices are bound to head higher.

On the chart –

Gold had a similar week like the one before consolidating in a range with very little actual movement. Fundamentals continue to aid higher gold prices as developments across the globe still are a cause of worry creating new clouds of uncertainty and confusion. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can rise to $1308. Once this is crossed it can head towards $1318. If this is taken out it can rally towards $1327 and next $1341.

2. Short trades continue to remain invalid as the support was held again, they come into play once the support is broken for targets of $1284 and $1273.

Bullish view – Bulls managed to scale the price back above $1300 again after winning another battle against the hungry bears. Though the gains were not very big but in the end it was a green candle which is a celebratory thing for the bulls. Bulls managed to defend the support of the long term trendline again which was crucial for keeping the overall trend intact. For bulls to remain on the heavier side they need to hold the support.

Bearish view – Bears continued to haunt as they tried to break the support once again but yet again failed suggesting the price action is still bullish and it will take more than just the haunts to break through the wall of the long term trendline. For bears to get considered they need to break the support.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1310 for the targets of $1318 and $1327 with a stop loss placed below $1302. Longer term target $1341.
Dips towards support can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.

Short trades come into the picture once the support gets broken for targets of $1284 and $1273.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 11-15

Gold had a suspenseful week where it broke through the long term trendline on the first day but eventually managed to close above it on the last day of the trading week thus keeping the trend intact as the support was once again respected. Gold had fallen a quick $12 before settling $5 higher for the week. Given the price action, it clearly suggests there is lot of buying interest at lower levels and the weekly support line still acts as a strong support keeping the bullish trend intact.

On the chart –

Gold again tested the support of the long term trendline on weekly time frame and bounced back well above indicating buying at lower levels as well as showcasing the tenacity of the support. With global uncertainties resurfacing along with recession fears gold ought to be in high demand. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support, if this support is held it can move till $1308. Once this is crossed it can rally till $1318. If this is taken out it can rise till $1327.

2. Short trades still remain out of consideration as the support was held but it will come into play once support breaks for $1284 and $1273.

Bullish view – Bulls not only won the week on the last day but managed to keep the trend intact by holding the weekly support line with gains of $5. The price movement did scare the bulls by giving a wake up call but it all ended as expected. Fundamentals continue to favor bulls and till the support is held price should see a forward action.

Bearish view – Bears had a failed attempt to break the support but did scare the bulls as the prices dragged down quite rapidly after the breakdown. For bears to remain visible they need to break the weekly support line.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1300 for the targets of $1308 and $1318 with a stop loss placed below $1290. Longer term target $1327.
Short trades come into the picture once the support gets broken for targets of $1284 and $1273.

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