Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 19-23

Gold soared nearly $50 in the last week posting 52 week high gains in a given week before settling for gains above $30. Such a move was anticipated given the technical pattern of double bottom which was formed at $1307. Higher than expected Inflation data of America fueled the yellow metal’s gains which moved nearly vertically after a knee jerk reaction of a minor fall due to the rise in Dollar Index. Gold was, is, and will always remain a hedge for inflation and its move was clearly related to the data on fundamental grounds. This weekly move suggests gold remains in a strong bull trend.

On the chart –

Gold prices surged to highs of $1360s which was earlier created in this year facing a resistance for the week there after bouncing off the 10 day moving average. Gold held on the key support of $1308 and moved higher suggesting a bottom formation is in play at $1300. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold flew higher to the highs of $1360s where it faced resistance and declined towards its support. If this support is held then gold can move back higher to $1362. If this is crossed it can head towards $1374. If this 52 week high is conquered it can move north to new 52 week high at $1386.

2. There are no short trades unless the support is breached and if broken the downside is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls emerged a clear winner as they posted 52 week high weekly gains after 2 weeks of negative return which may be considered as consolidation. As $1308 was held bulls got the ammunition to push the prices higher and this time they pushed it very high climbing multiple resistances at one go before stopping at the earlier highs at $1360s. Both technically and fundamentally the data supported this bullish move. If this trend remains then $1400 is on the horizon sooner than thought off.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be in a strong bullish grip and prices are expected to be sideways to higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1356 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1386.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 12-16

Gold again slipped in a volatile trade as it kept on with the volatility in equities which may be the cause of the fall but it certainly differs from general outlook of gold being a safe haven in such times. Gold had a swing of $40 which tested both the support and the resistance before settling in for a cut of nearly $20 for the week. Such a reaction of yellow metal gives weak signals for the prices ahead but again it held on to the 10 day moving average and surged higher.

On the chart –

Gold had a volatile week giving opportunities to both bulls and bears but ended up favoring the bears yet again for the second consecutive week. Gold held on the key support of $1308 in the $1300s which must be held for the prices to move up again. We have 2 scenarios –

1. As gold held the support it bounced back in the last week, if this is held then gold can move higher to $1317. If this point is crossed then it can go higher to $1331. If this resistance area is conquered then it can move towards $1345.

2. There are no short trades unless the support is breached and if broken the downside is limited to $1297.

Bullish view – Bulls lost the party again but were able to held on to the key support of $1308 in the $1300s which can help them to lead the surge again. The week started off in good fortune for the bulls as they climbed to $1345 before the steam was lost and it toppled lower to test the support at $1308. For bulls to remain in the game $1308 must hold and if held we can see the prices reversing the 2 week weakness.

Bearish view – Gold broke through the support of $1317 and closed below it suggesting weakness in the demand of yellow metal. If the price falls below the support of $1308 it can go lower towards $1297 which is a key decisive point for the metal.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1320 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317.
There are no short trades unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 05-09

Gold saw a pullback of $15 in a very volatile week of trade which was more or less on the expected lines amidst cautious trading and gold hovering near its 52 week high. Week featured bloodbath in equities on account of bonds sell off which happened after a long time and this might have been the driver of gold to the negative direction as assets come under pressure when losses amass. Though this phenomena is expected to spill over in next week also its not necessary gold will see such pullbacks as it closed above the support of $1331 after testing it which is a positive for the yellow metal.

On the chart –

Gold was trapped in the band of $15 for most of the week but it had its breakout and breakdowns making the range bound week look a volatile one. But it had its takeaways even if it turned out to be rough week for the prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1331 and rebounded to close significantly higher, if this support is held then gold can rise back to $1345. If this is crossed it can head higher towards $1362. If this resistance area is conquered it can move towards its highs of $1374.

2. There are no shorts trades unless the support is broken, and if broken the downside is limited to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls had there chances throughout the week but failed to capitalize on the momentum which was swaying hard and fast. Only consolation and the positive point for them is the support at $1331 was respected and held upon which if still held can restart a fresh upmove. As stated in the earlier post the bulls will remain strong till $1308 is held and another U.S shutdown is looming in the next week which might push the dollar lower again which could be positive for the bulls.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 29-Feb 02

Gold soared to fresh 52 week high amidst a falling dollar and a hedge against continued bubble creation in equities market around the globe. Gold hit a high of $1365 before settling lower around $1350 mark on technical pullback as it was trading way outside the Bollinger band and it had to be pulled back inside the band. The upside yet again remains on the cards as it closed above the support of $1345.

On the chart –

Gold registered a fresh 52 week high and still remains in strong demand as circumstances around the globe both bubble in equity markets and geo political tensions linger. Gold’s closing above the support also suggest momentum is still with the bulls. We have 2 scenarios –

1. The closing above the support suggests the downside is limited and if the support holds it can climb back to its fresh 52 week high of $1365. If this is held it can rise to the highs of $1374.

2. There are no shorts trades unless the support is broken, and if broken the downside is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls continued the show of strength registering a fresh 52 week high but failed to sustain there. They still remain in the game as the support at $1345 was held and if it continues to be strong then the upmove back to the highs cannot be ruled out. Gold will remain in bullish grip till $1308 is held and its likely that bulls will keep on the winning ways intact. If the support holds and slump in the dollar strength continues gold can see new highs and a run towards $1400 mark is on the horizon.

There are no bearish views as the support was held. Only factor which may lead to a sideways to negative returns is no scope for further rise in weekly Bollinger band.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be in bullish grip and prices are expected to be sideways to higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1354 for the targets of $1365 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1400.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 22-26

Gold fell over $5 in the last week after hitting fresh 4 month highs as it completed the technical pattern of Head and Shoulder on weekly timeframe which was on expected lines. Such a pullback was purely technical in nature as the demand for gold is increasing as equities are getting riskier day by day. Geo political tensions also continue to back the yellow metal prices. Gold took support at $1331 and if it holds it can again head higher. A major factor affecting gold prices will be the reciprocation of U.S government shutdown which started from Saturday.

On the charts –

Gold created a fresh 4 month high before retreating to test the support in $1320s finally closing above the crucial mark of $1331. Such a swing tested both the support and the resistance. Political instability within America itself will be a guide for the gold prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold managed to close above the support of $1331 which if holds can restart the upward journey back to the highs of $1345. If this is crossed gold can head higher to $1362. If the 52 week high is conquered it can climb towards $1374.

2. There are yet again no short trades unless supports get breached.

Bullish view – Bulls registered a fresh 4 month high creating a higher highs and higher lows formation on the chart. The bullishness was kept on track as the price closed above the support of $1331 along with a political development of a U.S government shutdown which should propel the prices back higher. Bulls have a lot on their side to claim the title for the sentiment. If things unfold as they were feared of, gold can head higher to its 52 week high and beyond.

There is no bearish view as supports are continuously held upon.

On larger terms, gold remains in the grip of bulls with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1374.

There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 15-19

Gold continued its uptrend rising more than $15 in the week broadly on account of hedging in risk management as the equity markets are extremely overbought and are in huge risk of a potential global meltdown. Price tested its support at $1308 before surging higher to 4 month highs. Geo political tensions are also catering to the demand of yellow metal though it is near its lowest compared to previous weeks. Once gold broke out above $1331 there was no returning back and its expected to rise higher to its 52 week highs and maybe register a fresh one too in coming days/weeks.

On the chart –

Gold’s upward momentum gathered steam once it tested support at $1308. It was a fifth consecutive weekly gain for the yellow metal and also registered a gain of $100 from the lows. Clearly, gold looks to keep on mounting gains as risk of equity meltdown is increasing every passing day. Now the key support for continued uptrend can be shifted from $1308 to $1317. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s movement suggests the demand is increasing even at higher levels which was not case when it had earlier registered the 52 weak high. If this momentum is continued, gold can head higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can rise to its 52 week highs of $1362. If this resistance is crossed then it can climb higher to $1374.

2. There are no short trades unless the trend is changed and supports are broken.

Bullish view – Bulls overpowered the bears when they tried to lower the price below the support of $1308 and took to prices to 4 month highs from there. Bulls were again on top of their game as they added to 5th straight weekly gains and this momentum seems to continue as technically and fundamentally gold demand and prices are looking to head higher. The chart suggests a rounding bottom/cup formation which should take the prices higher. This momentum is expected to continue and the prices should head higher towards $1350-$1360 area.

There is no bearish perspective until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains in a strong uptrend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 08-12

Gold has been on a clear uptrend since mid Dec following the massive selloff which tested the key supports in sub $1230s. The metal saw renewed demand on account of a very weak US dollar index which is continuing its downtrend after the US Fed’s decision to hike the interest rate. Geo political tensions around the globe are also bolstering the safe haven demand. Once gold crossed its psychological barrier of $1300 it was only going higher. Closing above the support suggests more upside potential for the metal.

On the chart –

Gold has been on a tear rising nearly $90 in matter of 4 weeks broadly due to its asset class and low price compared to newly formed crypto currency asset class due to a giant rally in Bitcoin prices. Gold now looks to be in a bullish run following a long bearish cycle which lasted for more than 4 years. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold seems in a strong bull run, if the support at $1318 is held it can head higher to $1331 where it may find some selling. Once this price point is crossed it can rise to $1345. If this is taken out it can head to the highs of $1362.

2. There are no short trades as gold is in a clear uptrend.

Bullish view – Bulls are taking the party well into the new year with incremental gains seen as a clear head and shoulder pattern is seen on the weekly chart which suggests more upside. It seems the long awaited bull cycle has started and it should take the prices higher towards $1400 and beyond which is confirmed by the monthly chart which suggests a cup formation is in progress ending above $1400. Should the prices continue the uptrend from $1400 it can rally well into $1500 also in the current year itself. Current trend suggests more upside with targets of $1345-$1350.

There is no bearish view until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold is in a strong bullish trend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1321 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1362.
There is no positional short trade unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 18-22

Gold gained nearly $8 in a volatile week of trade which was engulfed with important events like outcome of U.S Fed meet. The Fed raised the interest rate along the expected lines which was fully baked in the gold price and thus it rose after the announcement. This hike was fully factored in the last week’s price action thus a rebound was on the cards but the relief rally was paused at the 50 day moving average. Such a close still indicates no fresh direction as the price remains in cautious territory since it was unable to cross the moving average. Thing to look out for next week is the crucial tax reform bill and its implications if it gets passed or held back.

On the chart –

Gold had a relief rally rising nearly $8 in a volatile environment but failed to sustain above the crucial moving averages. This possibly can be still seen as negative and such bounces can be sold into, alternatively if it manages to hold above the averages then retracement to $1300 can begin again. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a positive week after falling badly as the support at $1248 was respected. If the support holds then gold can be seen rising to $1272. If this resistance is crossed then gold can rally to the next resistance area at $1284.

2. Gold had a relief rally but was stopped from crossing the 50 day moving average on closing basis thus still indicating bearishness in the mood. If its not allowed to cross then gold can slide back towards $1248. If this is broken then it can fall further towards $1235 levels.

Bullish view – Bulls were on the winning ways after getting hit hard in the previous week. Respect of the support at $1248 might give motivation to the bulls to drive the prices even higher in the coming week but it will be under scrutiny with big fundamentals again as in tax reforms bill to be discussed next week. Only hope for the bulls is the crossing and sustaining above the 50 day moving average and if they succeed then we might see higher prices.

Bearish view – Bears took a breather after largely eroding the price in the previous week. They tried to continue the downward trend but failed as fundamentals aided the bulls. But they should be happy as prices were not able to cross the resistance of 50 and 100 day moving averages which might suggest the upmove was just a relief rally and downtrend can continue if the support at $1248 is broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways and the prices are expected to move in the favor of the direction decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1265 for the targets of $1272 and $1284 with a stop loss placed below $1257.
Gold can be sold below $1254 for the targets of $1248 and $1235 with a stop loss placed above $1261.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 11-15

Gold saw a good correction after days of rangebound activity slipping nearly $30 for the week. Gold fell even lower towards $1244s breaking the support at $1248 but managed to close above it suggesting that this could act as an intermediate support. U.S tax reforms getting a green signal along with good weekly data pushed the metal to such lows. Gold is on the edge as never before since possibility of military conflict in Korean Peninsula is growing every passing day.

On the chart –

Gold broke through multiple supports falling nearly $30 but managed to close above the support of $1248. Such a fall could be possibly discounting the Fed’s activity next week. Gold has become sideways with movement to take place in any direction but it seems its has formed a short term base. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold saw a big correction after many weeks breaking technical supports as well as long term supports but held onto the support at $1248. If this is held it can head back higher to $1269. If this resistance is crossed then it can move to next supply area at $1284.

2. Gold fell hard taking out supports in a flash. If this downside momentum is to continue it can slide lower to $1235. If this support area is broken then it can further move lower to $1217.

Bullish view – Bulls took it on the chin as supports were unable to hold back the prices. But they can take consolation from the fact that the support at $1248 was respected and held even after it was breached. If bulls manage to hold this price point then its a move back into the greens.

Bearish view – Bears eroded the prices to lows of $1244 but failed to close below the support at $1248. They broke through an array of supports suggesting a change in mood of the investors when it comes to yellow metal. If this action is to continue then we might see more lower prices ahead.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways to bearish and the prices are expected to move in the favor of the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1260 for the targets of $1269 and $1284 with a stop loss placed below $1248. Longer term target $1297.
Gold can be sold below $1244 for the targets of $1235 and $1217 with a stop loss placed above $1248.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 04-08

Gold faced another down week in a rangebound trade hitting both the support and the resistance before ending with cuts of nearly $9. Such trades suggest confusion over the trajectory of the metal price with lack of news flow. But again the support was held and there seems to be some panic to begin concerning North Korea over its ability to hit U.S mainland with nuclear missiles which could aid the prices to move upwards.

On the chart –

Gold bounced between support and resistance showcasing confusion and lack of direction for the prices. If this continues it may go on trading in this range but the range expanded from $20 to $30 suggesting expansion which can happen on either side but preferably on the upside. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold rejected the top at $1297 second time and receded back to test the support which was held onto, generally the third attempt is successful so if the support is held then it may be able to cross the level in next attempt. If $1270 is held, gold can see upside till $1284 where it faces a cloud of sellers. If this is crossed then it can move higher till $1297. If this ever crucial resistance is crossed gold would break higher into $1300s to $1308.

2. There are no short trades unless support at $1270 is broken but again its limited to $1260 where the 50 day moving average might support the price.

Bullish view – Bulls lost the week but did not vanish, they were able to defend $1270 indicating buying at lower levels. Some respite for bulls may be coming from news flow from Korean peninsula which will definitely aid the prices to surge higher. If they are able to hold the supports the prices are expected to go higher in coming days/weeks.

There is no bearish view to support the downside as its very limited and only applicable if supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways and the prices are expected to be rangebound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1297 and $1308 with a stop loss placed below $1270. Longer term target $1317.
There is no positional short trade unless $1270 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1260.

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