Gold’s weekly outlook: June 12-16

Gold posted negative returns after 4 weeks with a crack of $10 in a volatile week of trade. Start of the week saw gold rising to new highs after which it slammed brakes on gains and reversed from the high point in later half of the week falling so much so that it even eroded gains of earlier week. The candle created is a bearish one on weekly basis but it can be also seen as an technical correction over bearish bias, and such a candle might create a cloud of uncertainty over the movement of prices on either side.

On the chart –

Gold continued its upside to create new highs but was followed by incremental selling which made the prices settle lower broadly on account of the technical formation of double top. Only positive to be taken out from the week is it still managed to create a higher high and a higher low which may signal some bullishness in the metal. The circle denotes the trading range of the metal. With such a price action we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold created a double top at $1298 which led to a massive technical correction. This also indicates selling/shorting at higher levels. After such a fall and breaking of supports, gold can further correct towards $1261 (A) which is a fairly good support in the weekly chart. If this support area fails to hold gold can slide further to $1244 (B) which again is a support/buying area of the metal. Finally on any adverse situation if this area gives up we might see a next leg of selling towards $1223 (C).

2. Gold’s fall from highs is more technical than fundamental which can be a positive sign as there is no negative news flow which might aid incremental selling from the current levels. In order to continue the uptrend gold must initially cross the very crucial price point of $1273 (1) which had acted as a stiff resistance capping gains on closing basis. If this resistance is crossed we might see a rally to $1280-81 (2) which is key point of interest since its a closing of the earlier week which might act as as a brief barrier to upside. A close above this level might propel the metal higher to $1298 (3) if the situations favor buying in non-risky asset class.

Bullish view – Gold bulls must take heart from the fact that they managed to create new highs and the weekly candle even negative created a higher high and a higher low which has been seen as a positive indicator for the prices. Price action denied bulls to continue the uptrend but a close above $1269 is still considered bullish in a looming bearish atmosphere. If this price point/support holds we might see continuation of the uptrend.

Bearish view – Bears were on full charge as they eroded the prices from the highs of $1298 to a low of $1269 in a span of 3 days, even dismissing the gains accumulated from earlier week. Clearly a bearish momentum was visible as selling pressure gained strength when the prices were falling. If this pressure continues gold is expected to fall further towards supports once again to test the demand of the metal at lower levels.

On larger terms, Gold is in a uncertainty cloud thus neutral as such corrections which are based on technical outlook may or may not last along with a major event of U.S fed rate hike decision to take place in the next week. Prices are expected to be fairly volatile in the coming week.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be sold under $1269 for the targets of $1261 and $1244 with a stop loss placed above $1278. Longer term target $1223.
Similarly gold can be bought above $1273 for the targets of $1281 and $1298 with a stop loss placed below $1261. Longer term target $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 05-09

Gold posted incremental weekly gains of over $12 which was broadly on account of bad data coming out of America which helped subdue fears over a possible rate hike by the U.S Fed in this month. Week was again a range bound one with the prices traveling between $1259-$1272 until last day when gold broke through the ever crucial $1272 conclusively which helped in adding more gains. Weekly candle formed is yet again showing bullishness in the metal price for the coming week.

On the chart –

Gold was clearly in a bullish momentum as the dips towards $1259 were bought on all occasions with the weekly candle forming higher top and higher bottom which is considered to be a very positive sign for the metal. Gold was expected to break through the $1272 mark and enter into next trading range which it complied to. Circles in the chart denote the ranges gold can trade in, and the break into the 2nd circle indicates range expansion thus indicating more bullishness for the metal. With shapes favoring bullishness we have a scenario for it –

Gold saw the dips towards $1259 bought on every occasion which suggested expansion of the range as in earlier week similar thing happened at $1247 levels. Gold broke through the resistance of $1272 on back of poor U.S data which helped the prices move into the next trading range denoted by the circle on the chart. With gold into the new trading range, prices might rise higher towards $1288 (A) as gaps in the chart will aid the movement to be brisk. If this level is taken out, prices are expected to move further higher to $1298 (B) which might act as a brief resistance since its a behavioral pattern when prices move towards new highs. If this price point is crossed, gold may edge higher towards $1307 (C) which is nearly the top of the trading range/circle and good resistance is expected here.

On a side note, there is a bearish scenario available but its very unlikely. Still a bearish trade can be initiated if prices break $1259 (1) which may lead to further downfall towards $1233 (2), and if this support area gives way the prices might find its feet near $1216 (3) which is lowest point of the circle/trading range and a good support for the metal.
Better than above is to trade the range of $1259-$1273 on a bearish note that is to sell under $1273 for the target of $1259 if a trade on bear side is to be taken at all.

Bullish View – Bulls were in charge as the prices created higher top and higher bottom which is extremely positive. Clearly bets on the bullish side were visible since dips to $1259 were bought thrice which was followed by incremental gains as such pattern suggests with a close way higher above $1272. Another aspect which denotes bullishness is the fact gold closed above the overlapping resistance of $1278 and a clear break into the next trading range. This buying pressure may continue with gold expected to create new highs in the coming week also confirmed by the pattern formation of triple bottom.

On larger terms, Gold remains in bullish bias with prices expected to move higher in the trading range of $1270-$1308.

Possible trades are on the bullish side, Gold can be bought near $1280 for the targets of $1288 and $1298 with a stop loss placed below $1273. Longer term target $1307. If we see a fall in prices it can be bought near $1269-$1273 for the above targets with a stop loss placed below $1259.
Short trades are unlikely, though gold can be sold under $1259 for targets of $1233 and $1216 with a stop loss placed above $1273. Better trading option on the short side is to trade the range of $1259-$1273, that it selling gold under $1273 for the target of $1259 with a stop loss placed above $1280.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 29 – June 02

Gold was fairly volatile in a range in the previous week but managed to gain nearly $10. Gold was stuck in a range of $1247 and $1269 as in early part of the week gold tested the bottom of the range whilst tested the high on the later half of the week. Such range bound weeks often indicate loss of direction but this time it was showing bullishness in the prices rather than a confusion over the movement of Gold. Next week might be a favorable one for the bulls as indicated by the patterns on the chart.

On the chart –

Gold was not out of the hands of the bulls for the entire week and gold added to the gains even if it was barely $10. Gold was expected to trade in a range which it complied to. Circles in the chart denote the ranges gold can trade in, and 2 symmetric circles point to the fact that we might see bullishness which will complete the empty symmetric circle. With shapes pointing towards a bullish move we have a scenario for it –

Gold rose higher after testing the bottom of the range on the first day of the week which suggested bullishness in the prices. Gold shrugged off the volatility caused by Fed Meeting Minutes in the past week and rose higher. With this bullish momentum going on, it may rise to $1283 (A) with a brief pressure faced at $1272 levels. If gold is able to take out this price point it is expected to move higher towards it highs of $1298 (B) which will be seen as a resistance area for the gold as generally highs tend to react in the same way. If this resistance area is taken out we may see further upward movement to $1307 (C) where gold might find a bit of trouble as it is near the highs of the circle.

On a side note, a bearish scenario is also there but its unlikely. The view, Gold can move lower towards $1242 (1) if situations make a turn and gold bulls are trapped. If this price area is taken out it can head lower towards $1228 (2) and if this area gives way prices may head southwards to $1213 (3) which is the lowest point of the circle.

Bullish view – Bulls were not out of the game as the range was respected and the prices turned positive after hitting the lows. Bullish bets were active since the range was not broken with bulls defending $1247 mark third time which suggests a triple bottom thus making the prices surge higher due to such pattern formation. This surge may continue and gold is expected to move higher in the coming week. According to patterns gold may make a new high in coming days/weeks.

On larger terms, Gold looks bullish as patterns indicate movement on the upside. Prices are expected to head higher into the the circle moving into next trading range of $1271 – $1308.

Possible trades are mostly on the bullish side, Gold can be bought around $1272 for the targets of $1283 and $1298 with a stop placed below $1263. Longer term target $1307. If we see a fall in the prices it can be bought near $1259-1263 for the above targets with a stop loss placed below $1247.
Short trades are unlikely, though gold can be sold near $1247 for targets of $1242 and $1228 with a stop loss placed above $1258. Longer term target $1213.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 22-26

Gold rose nearly $30 in the last week over worries of political uncertainty surrounding U.S president Donald Trump’s election. Gold added incremental gains from start of the week as demand for the metal spurred due to uncertainty clouds. Gold rose from $1226 to a hit a high of $1265 where it found a resistance due to pattern completion of Head and Shoulders before settling at $1255 for the week. Gold steamed ahead breaking resistances as anticipated in the earlier week.

On the chart –

Gold was clearly in a bullish grip adding gains of about $30 in the week. Gold was expected to move higher which it complied to and gained more than predicted due to noise created by U.S over the election of Donald Trump. Circles on the chart depict the ranges in which gold is trading and where it can trade further in coming days/weeks. With North Korea testing another missile in the weekend we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had hit a wall at $1265 as it completed Head and Shoulders pattern and reversed from there. This also indicates lack of buying interest at higher levels as news flow was not that strong to keep the upward momentum going. With gold topping out it can have a fall towards its support at $1247 (A) which it tested twice in the previous week. If this support fails we can see a further downside towards $1224 (B) which is a fairly good reversal zone for the metal. If this zone fails to hold gold can slide further towards $1208 (C). In any circumstance, if this price point fails we can see the price falling towards $1198 (D) which is a massive support for the yellow metal but such a move is unlikely with the amount of worries world is facing at the moment.

2. Gold brushed off negativity surrounding its price and rallied nearly $30 which is seen as a positive for the metal. With the current momentum intact gold can move higher towards $1265 (1) where gold found resistance due to pattern completion. If we manage to break it gold is expected to move forward to $1282 (2) which is a fairly good resistance on the chart. If scenarios favor the yellow metal it can rally higher towards $1295 (3).

Bullish view – Bulls were on top of their game as prices steamed ahead breaking short term resistances. Bullish bets were clearly visible due to the price action. Bulls were able to defend $1247 twice which indicates strength the metal has on the upside. If this support holds, gold is expected to go higher towards new highs above $1265. Also fresh tensions in Korean Peninsula can aid the metal on the upside.

Bearish view – Bears were trapped as the prices rose incrementally from the crucial pivot area of $1228. Bears should be happy as the price was not allowed to run away in one direction and higher level attracted fresh shorts. If tensions over the U.S presidential election runs out of steam gold can see a fall towards the lows of $1224 as it is the only driving factor for the gold. Good data from U.S can also dampen the price of gold.

On larger terms, Gold is continuing to be neutral as fresh worries keeps the metal in check on either side not allowing a clear direction. Prices are expected to trade in the range as depicted by the circles in the chart and if any circle breaks it can move to the next circle or the next trading range. On side note current global worries suggest more upside rather than downside until its solved.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought around $1247-1252 for targets of $1265 and $1282 with a stop loss placed below $1242. Longer term target $1295. If we do not see a fall gold can be bought above $1265 for the targets as mentioned above.
Similarly gold can be sold near $1244 for targets of $1235 and $1224 with a stop loss placed above $1247. Longer term target $1208 and $1198.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 15-19

Gold ended flat with little movement of a % point on either side in the last week which is a normal consolidation after big moves as seen earlier. In the early half of the week gold slid towards $1214 but regained from the lows to a high of $1236 in the later half before settling at $1228 which is as flat as it could get keeping the guessing game going for both bulls and bears. Week was a dull one as most of the negativity was factored into in the previous week and nothing new was powerful enough to create large moves on the upside. Gold prices just swayed from one side to another trapping both bulls and the bears as the end result was a dampening factor since it again closed on the pivot point from where it can make any conclusive direction. Next week may be an even trickier one but if patterns are to be followed gold should make a U shaped recovery towards $1241.

On the chart –

Gold was directionless and thus tested both support and the resistance swaying in a range of $23. Gold was expected to make a move towards downside considering the outcome of French elections but all the negativity got priced in the week before thus capping the downside momentum where fresh buying was clearly visible on the lower levels.
The movement or the range of gold is shown in a circle on the chart which has a high of $1271 and a low of $1196.5 and gold is expected to trade in the same until either of the price point is taken out.
With gold again at the pivot point, we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold prices saw a resistance at higher levels which can be said as lack of buying interest at higher levels as nothing was backing the demand for the yellow metal. Gold fell back towards its pivot/support point at $1228 (A) which is a very crucial mark. If this price point is taken out we might see a downside towards $1208 (B) which is considered to be a good support/demand area for the gold. If on any grounds this demand area fails to support the prices the metal can slide downwards to $1196 (C) which is a very crucial and a big support, it also is the lowest point of the circle in which gold is expected to move and this point must hold to keep the bulls in the game.

2. Gold retraced the losses to gain momentum to go forwards to its resistance area which is considered as a bullish since buying was clearly visible at lower levels. Also catering to bullishness is the fact the gold closed at the pivot/support of $1228 (1). If prices start to move in positive direction we can see it going towards the $1244 (2) which is a brief resistance on the chart. Now if this level is taken out on conclusive basis we can see the prices moving upwards to $1271 (3) which is the top of the circle and possibly a fair resistance level on the chart.

Bullish view – Bulls are still in the game since the price retraced from the lows and closed higher at the pivot point of $1228 from where a decisive movement can take place. Bulls were able to defend the support as lower levels attracted buying thus arresting the fall which started from the highs of $1297. If this support holds, prices are expected to head higher as most of the negativity is priced in with no major events in the corner which will lead to a selloff in gold.

Bearish view – Bears should be happy as they defended the $1237 mark which may be seen as a bearish sign as shorts were active at those levels. The close at the support also lends some relief to the bears as they can once again try to erode the prices towards lower levels. If tensions around the globe and uncertainties over U.S data subside we might see the prices going to lower levels as there seems to be lack of demand at higher prices.

On larger terms, Gold is clueless over which direction it should pursue as technicals and fundamentals are pushing and pulling the prices. Prices are expected to trade in a range as depicted by a circle in the chart. On a side note Gold is expected to go higher if patterns are to be followed.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought around $1235 for the targets of $1244 and $1257 with a stop loss below $1224. Longer term targets $1271 and $1285.
Similarly gold can be sold near $1220 for the targets of $1208 and $1196 with a stop loss above $1230. Longer term target $1164.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 08-12

Gold saw a big fall of over $40 last week as the selling pressure was incremental from the start of the week. A massive weekly red bar indicates that gold is not seeing buying at higher levels rather shorts are attracted there combined by lack of news flow regarding uncertainty over the Korean Peninsula which was one of the key reasons for the metal to fall off the cliff. Another reason which aided the fall in gold was lack of direction from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The week was a compelling bearish one with the price eroded to an extent that all intermediate supports were taken out including the technical support of double bottom. Gold fell from the highs of $1270 to $1226 before settling just above the support at $1228. Gold is again expected to be very volatile next week due to the outcome of French elections on Sunday the 7th.

On the chart-

Gold broke the trading range as it slipped over $40 as mentioned in the earlier post since it closed way below the $1238 mark. On positive side gold managed to take support just above the channel a-b which if it enters could be more bearish for the price. Next week could be another relentless week for the prices on either side due to the outcome of French elections. Possible 2 scenarios for the week –

1. Gold prices cracked over $40 and even failed the support of the double bottom created at $1260 which is treated as a very bearish sign for the metal. Gold is again trading at a crucial pivot/support at $1228 which if broken can send the prices south towards the $1208 (A) zones which is a fairly good support on the chart. If this price is taken out we might see a further fall towards the big support at $1197 (B) which must hold to keep bulls in the game as it did previously. In any circumstance if this huge support gives way, the price is expected to test $1164 (C) which is also the lower end of the channel but such a move looks unlikely as tension over North Korea hasn’t subsided.

2. Gold took support at $1228 signalling the fall might be arrested which is a very positive sign for the metal. If this support holds we might see the price moving forward to $1235 (1) which is widely seen as a brief resistance in the chart over the months. If bulls are able to take this out with a force we might see the prices advancing towards $1257 (2). With uncertainties still looming in the corners, prices might go higher towards $1285 (3) if $1257 is crossed conclusively.

Bullish view – Bulls should take the $1229 with both hands as they were pinned down throughout the week having no respite at all. Having closed above the support the bulls might be relieved as this signals bullishness for the prices going ahead having arrested the fall back towards $1250-1260 zones. If the support holds, its a very positive sign and prices are expected to retrace back towards the highs of $1280 as tensions over Korean Peninsula hasn’t died down completely.

Bearish view – Bears were on top of their game as they managed to erode the prices over $40 creating a massive red weekly bar with all intermediate supports taken out in one go. Failure to to hold the $1260 mark was considered as a very bearish sign which lead to such a massive fall making the bears rejoice throughout the week. Outcome expected out of French election is very bearish for gold and if it goes as predicted gold would see a massive downtrend resulting in breaking of major supports.

On larger terms, Gold is still neutral due to the uncertainties over French elections. Prices are expected to trade in a very volatile scenario with relentless moves on either sides.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought around $1230 for targets of $1244 and $1257 with a stop loss placed below $1218. Longer term target $1285.
Similarly Gold can be sold near $1220 for targets of $1208 and $1197. Longer term target $1164.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 01-05

Gold was very volatile last week where it fell from the highs of $1285 to a low of $1260 before settling at $1268. Gold gapped down on opening due to French election outcome followed by incremental selling which saw a brief buying at lower levels. This was sold into yet again pushing the prices lower to create a a double bottom which gave support to the metal thus allowing it to close significantly higher from the lows. Week was not convincing for it to be termed as bearish since the metal recovered from the lows aided by U.S policies regarding Tax reforms. Gold is expected to go higher next week if it manages to sustain above $1268 also helped with fresh tensions cropping up due to missile test conducted by North Korea on Saturday 29th.

On the chart –

Gold is clearly trading in a range of $1305 to $1238 marked by the channel a – b. Gold fell over $15 on the outcome of French election in last week but managed to close at the support of $1268 after creating a double bottom at $1260 levels which is seen as a positive for the metal. Next week might see some relief for the bulls but still the uncertainty prevails due to geopolitics. Possible 2 scenarios for the gold for next week –

1. Gold saw a selloff from the top and failed to sustain above $1278 even after recovering from the lows which provides a bearish signal. Yet again Gold is trading at a crucial point of $1268 (A) which seems to be a pivot point on the chart and if this point breaches gold can see further downside towards $1238 (B) which is a very good support area as its the lower end of the trading channel which gold is currently in. If this channel support fails to hold we may be heading towards the next support area of $1208 (C). Worst case if it happens, if gold slides below $1208 it can fall towards the big support area of $1196 (D) and then $1164 (E) but such moves are very very unlikely in the prevailing situations.

2. Gold’s closing at the support of $1268 (1) may be a bullish sign as a double bottom is in place at $1260 area and if this area holds it may provide a spring board to the prices to jump towards $1280 (2) which is a good resistance on the chart. If the bulls take out this mark on a conclusive basis gold is headed to fresh highs at $1305 (3). Some of this bullishness is due to the fresh tensions cropping up in North Korean Peninsula which if heats up can propel the prices even higher than $1305.

Bullish view – Bulls should be happy as they defended the $1260 zone twice and even managed to close at the support of $1268. Above the $1268 mark, it will make the bulls on top as it provides directive movement in gold to the upside towards $1280 and $1305 levels. Gold held on the support of $1260 in a bearish week which is an extremely bullish sign as a double bottom is formed there and the prices are expected to go higher amidst fresh tensions over North Korea and also technically.

Bearish view – Bears were at their best as they pegged back the prices over $15 from the high and managed to defend $1278 not allowing the bulls a freeway style recovery. Rejection of $1278 was considered as bearish and bears did what they were supposed to that is slackening the prices towards sub $1260s and even testing the support of $1260. Now if the Korean Peninsula tensions are tackled, a downtrend is expected for the metal towards $1238 zones.

On larger terms, Gold looks neutral to a fairly high bullish bias. Prices are expected to be volatile with an upward potential as tensions fail to give way to a smooth sailing.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought around $1270 for the targets of $1280 and $1296 with a stop loss placed below $1260. Longer term target $1305.
Gold can be sold around $1260 for targets of $1248 and $1238 with a stop loss placed above $1270. Longer term target $1208.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 24-28

Gold was volatile in a range last week ending with minor cuts of half a percentage. Gold had opened higher but failed to keep the upward momentum before slackening towards sub 1270 and finally closing at the mid 1280 levels. Week went by can still be termed as a neutral for gold as no major directive moves had been noticed. Next week is a very eventful week as it has French elections to deal with along with the lingering geo-political tensions. Another volatile week expected for gold with big moves anticipated on either sides. Maybe most of the event might be priced into but spikes cannot be ruled out.

On the chart –

Gold fell $7 for the week to close at the support of $1284 after testing the top which can be a treated as a slightly bullish remark since gold went lower twice towards $1275-78 levels but failed to sustain there. Another uncertain week expected due to French elections for the gold so there are again 2 scenarios for the yellow metal –

1. Gold topped out according to the chart which is in a way a bearish sign as selling was clearly visible at such high levels entwined with lack of news flow regarding the tensions which was propelling the metal. Gold is at a very crucial point of $1284 (A) which if breached conclusively can result in a slump towards $1258 (B) zones which is a fairly good support for the metal now. If this area is taken out we can see more price action towards the $1244 (C) levels. Now if this level fails to hold we can see a drop towards $1218 (D) which is a very big support for the metal and such a move is very unlikely in the given circumstances with a reversal expected from $1229 levels if it falls so drastically.

2. Gold closed at the support of $1284 (1) which is a slightly good sign for the bulls since gold moved higher from the lows of $1275-78 twice before closing above the support area. If this area holds we can see more upward momentum towards $1303 (2) as uncertainty still looms favoring bullish bets. If this price point is crossed on a conclusive basis we can see a move towards $1330 (3) which is relatively far off but cannot be ruled out in an uncertain situation.

Bullish view – Bulls should be happy to take anything above $1284 as its a crucial pivot point for the directive move and they(bulls) have this in their favor. With French elections to kick-start next week, it adds another uncertain event to the continuing Korean peninsula tensions which seems to make a stronger point for the bulls in the coming week. Gold took support at $1278 levels indicating a floor might be in the making at $1270 levels. Prices are expected to rise amidst such uncertainties and important events.

Bearish view – Bears were on the top as Gold was unable to cross the $1298 making a top for the short term. Gold’s reversal from the top suggested selling pressure at higher levels making the bears more comfortable and aggressive as they eroded the price towards mid $1270 levels. If events dont go as predicted and tensions subside, a slide is widely anticipated towards $1258 levels.

On larger terms, Gold is still in uncertain waters with a neutral to slightly bullish bias. Prices are expected to be volatile and big moves are anticipated on either sides, preferably higher side taking into account the heightened level of uncertainty due to an additional event.

Possible trades are on both sides,  Gold can be sold at higher levels for targets of $1278 and $1258 with a stop loss placed above $1303. Longer term target at $1244 and $1218
Gold can be bought around $1285 for targets of $1298 and $1303 with a stop loss placed below $1275. Longer term target at $1330.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 17-21

Gold soared higher towards $1289 amidst fears and geo-political tensions aided by a comment made by the President of U.S on dollar being stronger partly because of him. There are fears that a war may spark off between North Korea and America as both the countries were very aggressive over their stance to defend their moves. War games often leads to a higher gold price but such spikes generally become key contenders for shorting as they are short lived as seen in previous episodes. There is no doubt gold will spark off towards very high levels in situation of a war but will it sustain is a very big question as they (war) cannot continue for longer duration.

On the chart-

Gold rose more than $30 breaking the channel on the upside, this channel a-b has a high of $1346 (a) and a low of $1220 (b) which now acts as a base or a good support for the yellow metal. In an uncertain situation gold can move in any direction irrelative of the fact that it may have broken support/resistances/channels. There are two scenarios on the movement of gold-

1. Gold is facing a resistance at $1289 (A) levels, if tensions are cooled off gold can slide down towards $1260 (B) which is now assumed to be a point of reversal in gold but it may find short term supports at $1278 and $1267 levels before finally giving up to the $1260 zone. Now if this price point fails the gold can fall downwards to $1235 which is a good support for the metal and such a move is unlikely seeing the demand for gold at lower levels.

2. Gold has broken the channel on the upside which is a very positive sign for the price movement. Gold closed above $1289 (1), this indicates it can move higher towards $1305 (2) which though is a very good resistance point on the chart. If this zone is successfully crossed we can have an upmove towards $1322 (3). 

Such a large weekly bar is often followed with incremental gains so for short term a move towards $1305 is highly likely unless any sudden development on geo-political issues take place.

Bullish view – Bulls would be rejoicing the fact that they have crossed major resistances on the chart and have closed above the $1289 mark which indicates more positive momentum for them along with pertaining fears over a war which if becomes true it will sky rocket the gold prices. Comments on dollar being stronger wrongly is also a key motivator for the bulls. Price is expected to rise in such uncertainty in globe which also is a casing point for bulls.

Bearish view – Bears were trapped in the surge which took last week but they should still be happy as the $1289 level was not taken down decisively which means gold is losing steam on higher levels. Zone of $1289 is a fairly good resistance and a reversal is expected from here as it is assumed to be a cap for the gains unless war situation heats up sending gold higher. If tensions subside a reversal towards $1260 is widely anticipated.

On larger terms, Gold is in a volatile mode with neutral bias. Prices are expected to be very volatile taking into account the tensions which is reaching a boiling point. Gold can have a wild week with big moves expected on the either side, preferably on the upside.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be sold at higher levels for targets of $1278 and $1260 with stop loss placed above $1305. Longer term target at $1235 and $1220.
Similarly, Gold can be bought around $1291 for the targets of $1305 and $1322 with stop loss placed below $1278. Longer term target at $1346.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 10-14

Gold saw a volatile range bound trade last week with prices moving in a $20 band excepting the false spike towards the $1270 levels due to geo-political issue which got sold into intraday. Gold was chopping around giving no clear direction as demand was slowing when the prices moved higher resulting in a no-show week for the precious metal. Views about its future course is split but has a bearish bias attached since it was unable to stay above the crucial $1262 mark even after the momentous spike.

On the chart-
Gold is trading in-between the boundaries of $1262 and $1241, a breakout from this trading range is required to  give a clear path. Gold tested the top of the channel at $1273 (A) which seems to be a cap for the moment until gold breaks out on the upper side. Gold has a support at $1241 (B) which held on the last week , but if we see this mark break gold can slide towards its next support at $1229 (C) which is a very important mark as a reversal from here is quite possible. A failure to hold may result into further selling towards $1218 then $1196 (D) as $1200 seems to have developed as a floor for the prices. If things go out of hand fundamentally and globally the metal can slide towards $1188 (E) and $1160 (F) which is very unlikely at the moment.

There could be a rounding top formation on the chart which itself sings a bearish tone.

Another thing to look on the chart is the pattern repetition as indicated with circles, according to the pattern we might be seeing a fall of $25-$30 which could be followed by buying at lower levels.

Bullish view – Bulls can take heart from previous week’s price movement as they were able to defend $1241 and even broke above $1262 intraday. If the price gets defended at $1241 continuously we maybe in for a new high sooner than expected which is a valid point for the bulls. A head and shoulder formation on the chart is also favorable for the bulls.
Another bullish aspect is a reversal from $1229, expectancy of which is very high and new highs can be reached if such a move occurs.

Bearish view –  Bears were at their best as the price dropped from the highs of $1270 to close under $1262 which gives extra ammunition as the daily candle formation is very bearish due to such extreme moves. A higher dollar is also favoring the bears along with pattern repetition and failure to break $1262 4th time. A fall towards $1229 is widely expected.

On larger terms, Gold is still in a sideways mode with a bearish bias. Prices are expected to fall towards $1229 once the $1241 supports gives way, then a reversal is expected which will take the price towards new highs. For the shorter term gold should move higher towards $1260 to complete the “Head and Shoulder” formation from where a fall is anticipated.

Possible trades are on both sides , Gold can be sold at higher levels for the initial targets of $1241 and $1229 with a stop place above $1263 mark. Longer term target $1200.
Similarly Gold can be bought around $1229 for the targets of $1241 and $1263 with a stop placed below $1218. Longer term target $1305

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