Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 25-29

Gold had a continued corrective move from the highs of $1360s shedding over $20 yet again for the week closing above the key support of $1297. This fall was on account of a Hawkish Fed outcome which insisted on a 3rd hike later in the year regardless of how the economy is shaping up. Once the crucial $1300 was breached gold slid lower to its supports in $1290s but recovered as buying was clearly visible at low levels. After 2 big corrective weeks gold looks to take support at its very key support zone of $1296-$1298 and if this is held gold might restart its upward journey.

On the chart-

Gold fell more than $20 broadly due to the Fed outcome and it was supported technically as it took support at 10 day moving average on the closing basis. Gold’s closing above its support after falling much lower suggests bottoming out or the correction coming to an end. Gold technically still remains bullish till it holds the $1296-$1298 area. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a decent correction and a close above the support suggests buying at lower levels. If this sentiment is worked upon gold can rise to $1307 which is a brief stoppage point. If this point is crossed it may further add gains to go higher to $1317 which is a fine resistance on the chart. If this resistance area is taken out gold might head even higher till $1331.

2. Short trades become active once gold breaks its support, if this happens gold can slide lower to $1280 which acts as a support. If this is broken down gold can head south towards $1269 which is a good support on the chart.

Bullish view – It was a similar behavior by the bulls like in the past week as they came alive to give a close above the support area. Bulls were again seen pretty much active once the prices crumbled from the supports. Such a close is regarded as a bullish sign, and it seems correction might be coming to an end with fundamentals still strongly favoring the bulls. Prices are expected to head higher deeper into the $1300s if the support is held.

Bearish view – Bears eroded over $50 in a matter of 14 days, they were successful to breach the crucial support area of $1296-$1298 but failed to keep on the pressure. If this sentiment of corrective price movement remains gold might slide lower towards its supports though it seems less likely since fundamentals are not backing the bears.

On larger terms, gold remains neutral with mild positive bias as the supports were held. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1304 for the targets of $1307 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1294. Longer term target $1331.
Gold can be sold under $1294 for the targets of $1280 and $1269 with a stop loss placed above $1304.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 18-22

Gold saw a correction of over $16 which was ensued with a gap down opening on account of less than expected impact of hurricane Irma and also tensions in Korean Peninsula saw some easing. A gap down below the crucial support of $1342 firmed selling as gold was unable to recover the opening loss. Upbeat data from America also created sluggishness in gold prices causing them to fall more. Gold saw a rise at the end of the week on account of yet another missile flying out from Korean Peninsula but was unable to cling onto the gains as bears used this opportunity to further add short positions. Gold still remains in bullish grip as support of $1317 was not broken on closing basis which may trigger buying yet again.

On the chart –

Gold saw incremental selling after the large gap down below the support of $1342 which tested the key support at $1317 on the downside as expected but closed above it. Such a closing may again lead to gains and a possible retest of $1342 if the prices hold above $1317. Technically gold continues to remain bullish till $1300 holds and sideways movement is expected until $1342 is taken out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1317 and bounced back which suggests buying at lower levels. If such strength remains gold may rise back to the key level of $1342 which now acts as a resistance. If this level is taken out gold may go higher to $1356. Now if this price point is crossed gold may climb higher to $1375 where it will complete the pattern and is a very good resistance on the chart.

2. There are no short trades yet again unless support of $1317 is broken. If this support is broken then gold may fall to $1306.

Bullish view – Bulls took a breather as price action was commanded by the bears. Though bulls raged back into the game when they didn’t allow the support at $1317 to be broken on closing basis. Such a move still breathes bullishness in prices. Prices are expected to yet again test $1342 if the support is held, bulls are fundamentally favored due to global tensions regarding Korean peninsula failing to fade out rather its escalating with every passing day.

There is no bearish perspective unless support is broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways to bullish and the prices are expected to trade in a range.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1331 for the targets of $1342 and $1356 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1375.
Gold can be sold below $1317 for the target of $1306 with a stop loss placed above $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 11-15

Gold continued its upward journey as it gained over $10 in a volatile week amid worries over another hurricane heading onto American soil. Gold surged over $30 from the lows but failed to sustain before closing with less gains when compared to the upsurge. A gap up in the start of the week kept the rising trend intact which was also aided by dismal data coming from America. This uptick took out the resistance at $1342 which suggests more positive momentum for the metal and continuation till $1375 to form the cup is largely expected.

On the chart –

Gold kept on adding to the gains with a gap up which was followed by more incremental buying pushing the prices to 1 yr highs. The gap up above $1340 now suggests that the stops for the long trade is shifted to this level from $1317. Technically it seems the cup formation is expected to complete in coming days/weeks and the prices are expected to achieve new highs. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the resistance of $1342 suggests more upside. With this momentum gold can rise further to $1356 which failed to hold in the past week. If this level is crossed gold can move higher to $1375 where the cup formation ends and it will act as a great resistance. Now if this resistance area is crossed gold can see more upside to highs of $1391 which is less likely until more positive news for gold comes.

2. Again there are no short trades available unless $1342 breaks down but still the downside is limited to $1331 which now acts as a new good support. If this level gives way gold can fall to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls were again in a party mood as they eroded key resistances one at $1342 and other at $1356 in the week. Even if they failed to hold above the $1356 mark the closing over $1342 keeps them strongly in the game and another run towards $1375 is not ruled out. Bulls upped their game with the gap up and its sustained trend for the week which now suggests $1342 becomes a good support. Trend and fundamentals remain with the bulls and the prices are expected to rise further.

There is no bearish perspective to the metal unless key supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains in firm bullish grip with the prices expected to create fresh highs

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1352 for the targets of $1356 and $1375 with the stop loss placed below $1342. Longer term target $1391.
There are no short trades available still gold can be sold under $1342 for targets of $1331 and $1317 with a stop loss placed above $1356.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 04-08

Gold finally conquered $1300 with a large green weekly bar of $33 amidst geopolitical tensions between North Korea and America resurfacing on account of yet another missile test conducted by North Korea in the early part of the week. Gold was trading with positive bias well above the $1300 level before the news came, then the news fueled the prices to hit a high of $1330 on the second day of the week but cooled off as tensions simmered down due to no aggressive comment from America. Gold finally made a high of $1334 on the last day of the trading week before settling above the $1330 mark which suggests another breakout on the positive side with the prices now expected to create further new highs.

On the chart –

Gold saw a rise of over $30 which successfully closed above two crucial resistances one at $1300 and other $1330. The clear breakout over the $1330 suggests there is more upside to this metal. Technically now it seems the cup formation is in full & fast progress and the prices are expected to achieve new highs. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1330 speaks plenty itself, with this kind of momentum prices can rise to $1342 where the metal might find resistance as it completes a pattern there. If this resistance is crossed prices can head higher to $1356. If this area is taken out gold can surge to the highs of $1375 where it finally completes the cup formation and may find severe resistance.

2. There are no short trades available at all unless $1317 is taken out but still its limited to $1301 to the max, major trades on the short side start only once the prices dips below $1301

Bullish view – Bulls were on a tear as they conquered the crucial $1300 mark with large gains which also aided the price to close above next major resistance at $1330. Its a bullish party unless $1301 is broken, till then the price remains in the grip of bulls which is expected to create fresh highs in coming days/weeks. With $1300 successfully scaled its very difficult for the prices to fall below it now which suggests metal may finally be out of the multi-month bearish cycle. Trend and fundamentals remain with the bulls and the prices are expected to rise further.

There is no bearish perspective to the metal unless key supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain in firm bullish grip with the prices expected to create fresh highs.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1332 for the targets of $1342 and $1356 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1375.
There are no short trades available nor advised but still gold can be sold below $1317 for the targets of $1307 and $1301 with a stop loss placed above $1330.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 28-Sept 1

Gold saw a steady week with sideways to upward movement in prices as it gained almost $5. Gold had a single volatile day in the week (Friday) where it swung over $13 on both sides in a matter of minutes due to a crucial Special Fed commentary in which the rate hike possibilities were nullified thus fueling the gold prices. Gold had a positive closing which indicates further upside and also a breakout from the crucial circle range.

On the chart –

Gold closed above crucial $1297 mark which indicates a breakaway from the triple top resistance. The circle range is finally broken and the pivot now is shifted to $1289 (black dashed line) which is confirmed by the rising black dashed trend line. With such a closing the metal is expected to go higher above the $1300 mark as all elements which have a big impact on the prices have been ruled out for sometime, thus creating a smooth sailing for the metal. We have 2 scenarios –

1.Gold prices have regained the bullish charisma as they took support at $1281 in the volatile fall then climbed back higher above $1297 thus indicating buying at lower levels. With such a momentum gold can climb higher to $1307 where it saw a brief resistance. If the prices breakout above this level gold can further rise to $1317. If this point is crossed it can surge higher to $1330.

2. There are no short trades available in a bullish market but still if the price breaches the pivot point at $1289 it can fall to $1281 which is again limited as this is now a good support for the metal. Now if this support area is taken out gold may see further downside to $1271 which is the biggest support and the lower end of the rising channel. If this is broken gold might slip towards $1257.

Bullish view – Bulls continued their charge as the prices kept on having a steady rise. Bulls must be extremely happy with the close above $1297 which suggests breakout from the triple top resistance which will lead the metal to new highs in coming days/weeks. With the Fed ruling out rate hikes in near future the metal has a clear path for an upsurge as it was one of the critiques of the prices. Dovish-ness from Fed accompanied with poor data coming from America can fuel the prices towards $1317 and higher.

There is nothing worth mentioning on the bearish side as the close indicates continued bullishness. Bears can come into play only if $1271 is breached.

On larger terms, Gold remains in the bullish grip with the prices expected to create fresh highs.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1301 for the targets of $1307 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1291. Longer term target $1330.
Gold can be sold under $1281 for the targets of $1271 and $1257 with a stop loss placed above $1291 though such trades seem unlikely in the given situation.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 21-25

Gold closed flattish with a minor negative return after withstanding a week full of volatility. Gold plummeted nearly $24 in the early half of the week then recovered fully to hit fresh 9 month highs above the psychological $1300 barrier but failed to sustain as selling pressure pushed it back towards the support during the close. Gold was subject to the resistance of the $1300 mark and again failed to break the triple top on closing basis but it seems the downside is now limited as there is lot of news flow from America fueling gold prices.

On the chart –

Gold closed sideways with mild negative returns after having volatile moves on each side. Metal found resistance at $1300 which was on expected lines. Pivot point for gold has now changed to $1282 which if violated can see more downside. Gold is in an uptrending channel as lows were rejected suggesting limited downside and a good potential on the upside. There are 2 scenarios –

1. Gold having rejected the lows and creating a fresh 9 month high suggests the metal can have more upside. In an uptrending channel, gold can move higher to $1297 which is the major resistance of the triple top pattern. If this resistance is crossed gold can further climb higher to $1309. If this area is crossed gold can rally till $1319. Trend can only reverse if gold breaks the channel support at $1271.

2. Key levels such as $1300 do not get crossed with an ease, gold retreated after conquering $1300 which clearly suggests selling at high levels. There are no short trades unless gold breaks below $1282 which is a pivot point but again downside is limited to channel support at $1271 if $1282 gives way. Once the support at $1271 is broken gold can slide till $1261. If this area fails to hold gold can further move down towards $1254.

Bullish view – Bulls were on the charge once the price took support and then surged over $30 from the lows. This strong upward movement even took out the psychological barrier of $1300 which is a positive sign for the bulls. Prices are on the rising channel and it is expected to head higher as fundamentals keep on supporting the metal. Prices are expected to once again test $1300 and even higher until gold remains in the channel.

There are no short trades unless $1282 is broken, though main trades on the short side start only once the channel support at $1271 is broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish from neutral. Prices are expected to head higher and create fresh new highs.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1291 for the targets of $1297 and $1309 with a stop loss placed below $1282. Longer term target $1319.
Gold can be sold below $1282 for the targets of $1271 and $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1291. Longer term target $1254.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 14-18

Gold soared $30 amidst geopolitical tensions after a week of consolidation as the dollar index remained near the lows. Gold completed the pattern of Triple Top when it hit the high of $1297 from where it retreated which was on expected lines. Gold can now head higher only if its able to cross the triple top pattern on a conclusive basis. With the pattern completed it is expected that gold might decline towards sub $1270 levels, also the geopolitical tensions looks to calm down after a week of aggressive comments.

On the chart –

Gold made a brisk move towards its highs of $1297 where it saw selling pressure overtake the demand as seen in earlier weeks. Gold also completed its move towards Fib’s 100% mark which suggests upside is over. Now $1297 acts as a pivot point for further price action, a move above may allow more upside while a resistance will lead to a correction in the prices. There are 2 scenarios –

1. Gold broke above the downward trendline with a huge margin indicating positiveness and further upside might be on the cards once $1297 or the triple top pattern is taken down. With such moves anticipated gold can head higher to $1309 (1) where the metal may find some resistance as seen on longer time frame. Once it crosses this mark it can head even higher to $1321 (2).

2. Gold completed its technical move on the upside which suggests a correction might be on the cards. The price was unable to close above the upward trendline which suggests gold can move lower to $1291 (A). Once gold breaks this mark it can slide to $1278 (B) which is a good support. If this support level is taken out gold can further move down towards $1267 (C).

Bullish view – Bulls came back with fury after a week of minor consolidation which led the prices to its highs of $1297. Price broke through the downward trendline which suggests further bullishness. Such bullishness is only possible if $1297 is taken out on a conclusive basis. Prices are expected to move towards $1321 once the triple top pattern is broken on the upside. There is very less chance of bullish moves as such technical patterns are strong reversal signals and trades on the long side should be taken with extreme caution.

Bearish view – Bears were stunned by the brisk upmove but came back to life when they did not allow the price to go higher above the $1297 respecting the Triple Top pattern. This resistance did not allow the price to go above the upward trendline which suggests selling at highs. Prices are expected to correct after a 5 week rally from the lows.

On larger terms, Gold looks neutral with a negative bias. Prices are expected to correct though it can remain sideways unless a direction is created on a conclusive basis.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1301 for the targets of $1309 and $1321 with a stop loss placed below $1291. Longer term target $1346.
Gold can be sold below $1291 for the targets of $1278 and $1267 with a stop loss placed above $1301. Longer term target $1261.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 07-11

Gold broke the winning streak as it settled lower by $9 on account of better than expected data from America which fueled up the dollar index from its lows. Gold marginally closed lower from the crucial bullish support of $1261 but even such a minor hiccup might cause the metal to gain plenty of reasons for a corrective move. Though no big moves are expected but with this sort of close gold might end up having a sideways to negative coming days/weeks until its back above the $1261 mark.

On the chart –

Gold fell after completing its pattern which was widely expected, the fall extended below the Fib’s 61.8% mark which is seen negative for the metal. Gold has a crucial pivot point at $1251 also confirmed by the bullish-bearish trendlines (black lines) which must hold for keeping the bulls in the game, if violated gold can see an extended fall. With such crucial points coming back into action there are 2 scenarios –

1. Gold lost its luster after 3 consecutive weeks of rise which again is on technical grounds. For gold to continue its uptrend it must trade above $1261, and if this happens gold can move higher to $1271. And if this point of resistance is taken out gold can head north to $1281 where again the metal should find some selling pressure. If this zone is crossed gold can move to its highs of $1297 where it will form a triple top which is a good technical resistance/reversal indicator.

2. Gold fell on technical grounds after completing the pattern. This completion might result into a correction which can move gold lower if it breaks the $1251 mark. If this mark is broken it can move lower to $1241 which is a fairly good support. Now if this support is taken out gold can slide to $1227. And if this area is violated gold can see further selling towards $1217 which is a good support.

Bullish view – Bulls lost their winning ways as prices slid below the bullish support support of $1261. Bulls are not out of the game as prices are still trading in the upper part of the Bollinger band. Prices are expected to bounce back if $1251 is held which looks likely given the importance of the point and the technicals.

Bearish view – Bears regained the power as the prices had a cut of $9 also sliding below the Fib’s 61.8% mark which seems negative. Bears can add on the ammunition once $1251 is taken out and the price moves are totally in favor of them after that. If $1251 is broken prices are expected to continue its slide towards $1241.

On larger terms, Gold looks sideways with mild negative bias. Prices are expected to be sideways unless a direction is created on a conclusive basis.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1261 for the targets of $1271 and $1281 with a stop loss placed below $1251. Longer term target $1297.
Gold can be sold below $1251 for the targets of $1241 and $1227 with a stop loss placed above $1261. Longer term target $1217.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 31-Aug 4

Gold gained for 3rd consecutive week on account of a Dovish Fed outcome which resulted in lower dollar index thus fueling the gold price. Gold managed to post a decent weekly gain of over $13 which was on the expected lines since a pattern was in the formation as shown in Gold’s weekly outlook: July 24-28. The crucial Fib level of 61.8% acted as a resistance in the early part of the week but was taken out during the later half which does suggest continuous bullishness. Gold is now on track to touch its highs of $1297.

On the chart –

Gold took out the retracement level of 61.8% on closing basis with a good margin which puts bullishness firmly on the table. With such a closing, its expected to go higher to its highs of $1296-$1298 where it may find good resistance as it will form a triple top. With the Fed meeting out of the way, gold can move steadily without much volatility. With pattern near completion we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold broke through the levels of Fib which now suggests a move even more higher to $1296-$1298 zone. This move was largely on the weakened dollar index which was trading at fresh lows. With such fundamentals aiding gold, it is expected to move higher to $1271 (A) which is a trough area for the yellow metal. If gold is able to cross this area it will see more upside to $1278 (B) which is a fairly good resistance on the chart. If this resistance level is taken out, gold can head higher to $1297 (C) where its expected to see a lot of resistance on account of formation of triple top.

2. Gold is clearly in an uptrend so taking a short call is on the contra side but it is still possible if gold moves lower after completing the pattern though such a move is less likely given the breakout seen. Gold can move lower to $1251 (1) if it slides below the Fib level of 61.8% which is near $1261-$1263. If this area is taken out gold can fall further to $1241 (2) which is a good support area. If this support zone is breached gold can tumble down to $1224 (3).

Bullish view – Bulls are in the charge for the 3rd consecutive week as the price heads higher now trading in the upper part of the bollinger band which suggests continued uptrend which should last till it hits the highest point on the band. Breakout of technical levels and Fed’s dovish stance gives more impetus to gold for moving higher and maybe create a new high in the coming days/weeks. Gold is expected to register a high of $1297 or more given the scenarios which is extremely positive for the metal.

There is nothing worth mentioning on the bearish side since everything is pointing towards bullishness. This can change only if prices start to trade below $1261-$1263 which is unlikely.

On larger terms, Gold is in a strong bullish grip as the dollar index is continuously trading at new lows. Prices are expected to move higher towards $1296-$1298.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the upside, Gold can be bought above $1271 for the targets of $1278 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1261. Longer term target $1305. A buy on dips is also suggested till $1261 with a stop loss placed below $1251.
Short trades are unlikely until $1261 is breached. Gold can be sold below $1261 for the targets of $1251 and $1241 with a stop loss placed above $1271. Longer term target $1224.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 24-28

Gold saw a rise of more than $25 in the week owing to a weakening dollar index due to poor data coming from America and heightened risks in the global equities due to very high indices which seems to be overbought. The rally was more on the back of technical grounds after it bottomed out near $1200, now retracing back according to Fib levels. If gold manages to take out a crucial Fib level of 61.8, it can head higher to its highs of $1297. Another thing to look out in the week is the upcoming monthly Fed meet over interest rate decision.

On the charts –

Gold made another dash towards its retracement levels which it crossed above the 50% mark to close at $1254. Now its expected to head higher to 61.8% levels from where a possible change in direction might be on the cards if it fails to take it out.
Gold is trading well into its range circle and now a pattern (2 black lines) looks to be completed in upcoming days. There are 2 scenarios taking into the Fed meeting in account –

1. Gold broke above the 50% mark of Fib levels which is suggesting more upside as other factors are also aiding the uptrend like a weakened dollar index. If this move continues gold can head higher to $1261 (A) which is a good resistance (red line) as its very near to the 61.8% level. If this area is taken out, gold can climb even higher to $1275 (B) where it found some more resistance as seen in the earlier weeks. Now if this multiple resistance zone is conquered gold can see more upside to its highs of $1297 (C) where it may find some selling pressure as it will form a triple top.

2. Gold is clearly on the breakout on upside but the Fed meeting outcome might change that. If a hawkish statement is out which is very less likely gold can slide towards $1237 (1). If this level is broken gold might fall lower to $1217 (2) which is a good support area (green line). And if this support zone gives way gold may sulk back to its lows of $1204 (3) from where the prices rebounded.

Bullish view – Bulls were back on the winning ways for the 2nd consecutive week as poor data and risks increased the demand for gold. Aiding the bulls is the technical breakout over 50% Fib levels which should result in expansion to 61.8% and also the fact that a pattern (black lines) is on the formation spree which has a high of $1275. Gold also is expected to take ques from Fed outcome which had already given a dovish statement in earlier weeks on its rate hike programme which again is bullish for gold. Gold is expected to move higher on both technical as well as fundamental grounds.

There is nothing bearish worth mentioning apart from any change in stance of the Fed over its rate hike pitch which may alter the course for gold but it is less likely since the Fed has already expressed its dovish views. And gold will turn bearish only if the Fib level of 61.8% is respected and it reverses from there.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish as the dollar index is still trading at new lows with the prices expected to head north to $1269-$1275.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the upside, Gold can be bought above $1254 for the targets of $1261 and $1275 with a stop loss placed below $1244. Longer term target $1297. Gold can also be bought on dips with a stop loss placed below $1237.
Short trades are unlikely but still gold can be sold below $1241 for targets of $1237 and $1217 with a stop loss placed above $1251. Longer term target $1204.

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