Gold’s weekly outlook: April 17-21

Gold soared higher towards $1289 amidst fears and geo-political tensions aided by a comment made by the President of U.S on dollar being stronger partly because of him. There are fears that a war may spark off between North Korea and America as both the countries were very aggressive over their stance to defend their moves. War games often leads to a higher gold price but such spikes generally become key contenders for shorting as they are short lived as seen in previous episodes. There is no doubt gold will spark off towards very high levels in situation of a war but will it sustain is a very big question as they (war) cannot continue for longer duration.

On the chart-

Gold rose more than $30 breaking the channel on the upside, this channel a-b has a high of $1346 (a) and a low of $1220 (b) which now acts as a base or a good support for the yellow metal. In an uncertain situation gold can move in any direction irrelative of the fact that it may have broken support/resistances/channels. There are two scenarios on the movement of gold-

1. Gold is facing a resistance at $1289 (A) levels, if tensions are cooled off gold can slide down towards $1260 (B) which is now assumed to be a point of reversal in gold but it may find short term supports at $1278 and $1267 levels before finally giving up to the $1260 zone. Now if this price point fails the gold can fall downwards to $1235 which is a good support for the metal and such a move is unlikely seeing the demand for gold at lower levels.

2. Gold has broken the channel on the upside which is a very positive sign for the price movement. Gold closed above $1289 (1), this indicates it can move higher towards $1305 (2) which though is a very good resistance point on the chart. If this zone is successfully crossed we can have an upmove towards $1322 (3). 

Such a large weekly bar is often followed with incremental gains so for short term a move towards $1305 is highly likely unless any sudden development on geo-political issues take place.

Bullish view – Bulls would be rejoicing the fact that they have crossed major resistances on the chart and have closed above the $1289 mark which indicates more positive momentum for them along with pertaining fears over a war which if becomes true it will sky rocket the gold prices. Comments on dollar being stronger wrongly is also a key motivator for the bulls. Price is expected to rise in such uncertainty in globe which also is a casing point for bulls.

Bearish view – Bears were trapped in the surge which took last week but they should still be happy as the $1289 level was not taken down decisively which means gold is losing steam on higher levels. Zone of $1289 is a fairly good resistance and a reversal is expected from here as it is assumed to be a cap for the gains unless war situation heats up sending gold higher. If tensions subside a reversal towards $1260 is widely anticipated.

On larger terms, Gold is in a volatile mode with neutral bias. Prices are expected to be very volatile taking into account the tensions which is reaching a boiling point. Gold can have a wild week with big moves expected on the either side, preferably on the upside.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be sold at higher levels for targets of $1278 and $1260 with stop loss placed above $1305. Longer term target at $1235 and $1220.
Similarly, Gold can be bought around $1291 for the targets of $1305 and $1322 with stop loss placed below $1278. Longer term target at $1346.

gold weekly 5

Gold’s weekly outlook: April 10-14

Gold saw a volatile range bound trade last week with prices moving in a $20 band excepting the false spike towards the $1270 levels due to geo-political issue which got sold into intraday. Gold was chopping around giving no clear direction as demand was slowing when the prices moved higher resulting in a no-show week for the precious metal. Views about its future course is split but has a bearish bias attached since it was unable to stay above the crucial $1262 mark even after the momentous spike.

On the chart-
Gold is trading in-between the boundaries of $1262 and $1241, a breakout from this trading range is required to  give a clear path. Gold tested the top of the channel at $1273 (A) which seems to be a cap for the moment until gold breaks out on the upper side. Gold has a support at $1241 (B) which held on the last week , but if we see this mark break gold can slide towards its next support at $1229 (C) which is a very important mark as a reversal from here is quite possible. A failure to hold may result into further selling towards $1218 then $1196 (D) as $1200 seems to have developed as a floor for the prices. If things go out of hand fundamentally and globally the metal can slide towards $1188 (E) and $1160 (F) which is very unlikely at the moment.

There could be a rounding top formation on the chart which itself sings a bearish tone.

Another thing to look on the chart is the pattern repetition as indicated with circles, according to the pattern we might be seeing a fall of $25-$30 which could be followed by buying at lower levels.

Bullish view – Bulls can take heart from previous week’s price movement as they were able to defend $1241 and even broke above $1262 intraday. If the price gets defended at $1241 continuously we maybe in for a new high sooner than expected which is a valid point for the bulls. A head and shoulder formation on the chart is also favorable for the bulls.
Another bullish aspect is a reversal from $1229, expectancy of which is very high and new highs can be reached if such a move occurs.

Bearish view –  Bears were at their best as the price dropped from the highs of $1270 to close under $1262 which gives extra ammunition as the daily candle formation is very bearish due to such extreme moves. A higher dollar is also favoring the bears along with pattern repetition and failure to break $1262 4th time. A fall towards $1229 is widely expected.

On larger terms, Gold is still in a sideways mode with a bearish bias. Prices are expected to fall towards $1229 once the $1241 supports gives way, then a reversal is expected which will take the price towards new highs. For the shorter term gold should move higher towards $1260 to complete the “Head and Shoulder” formation from where a fall is anticipated.

Possible trades are on both sides , Gold can be sold at higher levels for the initial targets of $1241 and $1229 with a stop place above $1263 mark. Longer term target $1200.
Similarly Gold can be bought around $1229 for the targets of $1241 and $1263 with a stop placed below $1218. Longer term target $1305

gold weekly 4

Gold’s weekly outlook: April 03-07

Gold prices took a bumpy ride last week where it moved higher towards $1260 in the earlier half of the week before falling towards the lows of $1238 during the end of the week then finally settling at $1247.3 . There was a massive fight between the bulls and the bears on Friday where bulls were able to win the final say as the price recovered nearly $10 from the lows which could provide some sort of satisfaction to them in regards of keeping the momentum going. But the week ended sideways with signs of bearishness starting to show.

On the chart-
Gold saw a big surge as the prices hit $1260 but failed to sustain thus creating a double top which is regarded as a very negative sign for the price movement and lower levels could be on the cards.
Gold has a high at $1280 (A) on the chart, path to which is only possible if the gold crosses the $1262 mark on the closing basis which is looking unlikely at the moment. Gold saw tiredness at higher levels where it failed to hold $1256 (B) which can lead to a possible breakdown in prices. If the price breaks the $1241 (C) on conclusive basis it can go towards its next support at $1218 (D). And if this price point which can be said as a fairly good support fails to hold the downtrend can continue towards $1205 (E). If such a bearish move happens it opens the gate for gold to even sink lower towards the huge support area of $1182 (F) from where a reversal could be possible.
On the flip side if gold gets support at $1218 and fundamentals are supportive , we may see a reversal starting from here which may take the gold to newer highs and even beyond $1305.

An optimist view: Gold is currently in no man’s land as it is split between the support and the resistance, with the momentum seen on Friday bulls have an outside chance to keep the rally alive and go towards $1280 levels

On larger terms, Gold looks bearish with prices expected to fall since $1260 level got rejected twice creating a double top. Gold can move lower with the targets of $1235 and $1220 in short/medium term and $1180 as a longer term target. Though a rally above $1256 might help the metal touch the top of the range at $1280.

Possible trades are on the downside, gold can be sold for the initial target of $1235 and $1220 with a stop loss placed at $1258. Longer term target for the metal is $1200 which may act as a good barrier for the bears which if taken out may result in a waterfall style fall towards $1182.
Positional traders can use this dip to accumulate the metal for the next leg of the upmove which will take the Gold prices to newer highs and even cross the psychological $1305 mark in coming weeks/months.

gold weekly 3

Gold’s technical whereabouts

Gold has been on the rise since the beginning of this year on multiple global factors which may continue to support the uptrend in the remainder of the year. Gold saw a ‘V’ shaped recovery from its low and yet again another similar pattern has formed after the profit taking the metal saw after hitting a high of $1263 in the past weeks.

On the chart-

# Gold is trading near highs of the trading range which has a top of $1280 (A) and a bottom of $1208 (B). The high of $1280 (A) is also confirmed by intersection of the ray lines indicating the metal may find a fair resistance at those levels.

# Gold is still upbeat regardless of significant up-moves in dollar index which generally is seen as a negative.

# Gold had formed a floor at $1200 thus making it a good support for the metal, this can now be shifted to $1208 (B) which is the lower end of the trading range.

# Another point of interest for the metal is the $1218 (C) which should now act as a reasonable support as it is a very crucial level which if taken out may signal a bearish tone if the metal fails to garner support of investors near the lower end of the range.

# A massive support for the metal is seen at $1182 (D) which could be revisited if all the supports and fundamentals are broken. A point of interest for the Bears which if fails to hold we might see the metal falling to the lows of $1136. Chances of such a move is very slim but nothing must be fully ruled out.

# Possible Trades-
Positional trades can be buying the metal in the range $1235-$1252 for possible targets of $1280 & $1305 and even higher with a stop loss at $1217 for mid/long term.
If the metal breaks the $1268 on the upside, it can still be bought for the above mentioned targets with a stop loss at $1244.
For positions held from $1218 stop loss should be at $1200

Metal is in a bull run and shorting it for positional returns is not suggested due to low  risk-reward and prices tend to move higher after a brief correction in this type of market unless there is any event which might shake the charts for a different outlook altogether.

gold daily 2

Gold’s weekly outlook: March 27-31

Gold added another $14.5 to close at $1243 for week as the dollar index continued to slump due to political issues mainly generated by America. The incremental gains where quite sharp at the start of the week and led to a breakout in the chart (Gold breaks the trading range), but was slowed down as the higher price was continuously rejected and metal witnessed selloff from the highs of $1253 to close at $1243. On the other hand prices took support at $1241 levels and bounced back in intraday trades suggesting a “push-pull” situation where a conclusive move was missing.

On the chart-
Gold surged ahead in the trading range creating more bullish momentum. The metal was poised for a big upmove since it had broken the trading range in the first half of the week but the momentum subsided in the later half of the week due to selling/shorting seen at higher levels sending the price to close fairly lower when compared to highs it hit in the week. Still gold remains in the upside as it moved higher into the trading range.

Gold is still broadly in bullish grip and is trading well into the range which has a high of $1295 (D) and a low of $1218 (B). The prices are expected to move higher towards $1278 (A) which may be a fair resistance on the chart confirmed by intersecting bullish-bearish ray lines with an outside chance to go even higher towards the $1295 (D) mark if the global sentiments boosts gold prices. Whereas Friday’s bar was bit bearish among the bars created in the whole week but was still showing positive signs as the price took support at $1240 (C) confirmed by intersecting ray-lines which may now act as a short-term support on closing basis. But a breach may result in more downside towards $1218 (B) which is a good support on the chart and this “mark should hold” to keep the bulls in the game.

On larger terms, Gold still remains bullish with the prices expected to go higher with initial targets of $1254 and $1268 for short/medium term and a long term target of $1305. While on the downside the price may test $1218 if $1240 is broken conclusively but the chances are slim for such a move.

Positional trade still remains same, Gold can be bought for possible target of $1254 and $1268 and even higher towards $13o5 which is a key resistance on the chart with a stop loss placed at $1217.
For positions held from $1218 stop loss should be at $1200.


Gold breaks the trading range

Gold is trading at 3 week highs on account of the slump in dollar index caused by a Dovish U.S Fed interest rate event last week. Gold has gained $50 dollars since then and is still adding on incremental gains. A weakening equity market is also helping the metal to rise as investors are flocking towards safe haven thus increasing the demand for the Gold.

Gold had been in a trading range from past 13 days which has a high of $1248 (A) and a low of $1205 (B). Gold broke this range yesterday when it closed at $1246.1 (shown in the daily chart below), this indicates more upside in the metal as it is looking even more bullish. A close above the level of $1245 itself is striking a positive note as it was a resistance on the chart (showed in Gold’s weekly outlook: March 20-24 ). 

This breakout strengthens the sentiment and new highs are possibly on the cards.

Positional trade remains the same, gold can be bought for a possible target of $1268 and even higher towards $13o5 which is a key resistance on the chart with a stop loss now placed at $1217.
For positions held from $1218 stop loss should be at $1200.

gold daily

Gold’s weekly outlook: March 20-24

Gold soared above $1220 levels last week as Fed struck a dovish tone after increasing the interest rate by quarter of a percentage point. Gold rose from the lows of $1196 which was a strong support for the metal to weekly high of $1231.4 before settling at $1229.8. This weekly close above the resistance of $1229 is regarded as very positive and incremental gains are possibly on the cards. The immediate upward movement of gold after the rate hike showed investor confidence over this safe haven which was missing from past weeks where the metal tumbled from highs of $1263 to a low of $1196.2. With Fed event out of the way the metal is poised to create new highs in coming days/weeks as global uncertainty never seems to subside.

On the chart-
Gold broke the trading range which it had entered in the week before which had raised the eyebrows over a possible breakdown of the yellow metal. Gold shot up in later half of the week closing above the resistance of $1229.

This move created a triangle formation on the chart
with gold now having a support at $1224 (B) as suggested by intersection of ray lines, this support could be stronger than the $1220 mark. A positive closing indicates bullishness in the gold prices and confirms the 2nd leg of upward move in the metal has started as predicted in Gold’s weekly outlook: March 13-17.
Gold prices are expected to hit the high of $1305 (A) where the metal might take a breather and consolidate before moving higher as it is a crucial level and a very good resistance on the chart. Such a move in the prices have created a downside protection at $1200 (C) confirmed by intersecting ray lines which will act as a good support and any violation may result in a breakdown towards $1196 then $1182, chances of such a move is very slim but cannot be fully ruled out.

On larger terms, technically gold remains in the bullish grip with the prices expected to move higher with the initial targets of $1245 and $1268 for short/medium term and a longer term target at $1305 in coming days/weeks, Gold now has a downside protection at $1200 and any conclusive breakdown may result in a price movement towards $1196 and $1182 levels.


Gold’s weekly outlook: March 13-17

Gold posted negative returns for the 2nd straight week falling from the highs of $1263 to close at $1203.95 for the week. Gold had dropped below the psychological $1200 level on Friday but rebounded after testing its support at $1196. Such a fall in yellow metal is accredited to U.S Fed’s interest rate decision due on 15th March. Fears over a near certainty of a rate hike pushed the dollar index higher and the gold grind-ed lower as investors flocked to less risky asset class.

On weekly chart-
Gold broke multiple supports and even threatened to crush the long term support of $1196 in the last week but managed to close over $1200 which possibly can be taken as a positive sign after 2 weeks of heavy selling.

A bullish bar created on Friday is interesting as it suggests that the selling might have been curbed and low level buying interest could have reinvigorated. On the chart a bullish-bearish ray line intersection at $1196 (B) gives additional pillar of support at that price level. Whereas a high of the bullish ray line at $1208 (A) strengthens the fact that it may continue to act as a resistance until it is not taken out conclusively, there is quite a chance that this price point may not be crossed in this week due to an important event lined up which directly has an impact on gold. Though a decision outcome which may favor gold bulls can push the prices back above $1218 mark which will be extremely positive and regarded as a 2nd leg of up-move to have started. On the flip side gold has a huge support at $1168 (C) and a test cannot be ruled out as any hawkish stance/statement might trigger a knee jerk reaction and the price can fall off the cliff which definitely will be regarded as a bearish outlook if it sustains.

On larger terms, this week is loaded with big price moving event and volatile swings are expected. Though Gold seems to have found its feet suggested by the Friday’s price movement, large moves on either side can happen even though the rate hike is mostly factored in the price. Technically gold looks bullish with prices expected to go higher in coming days/weeks with the initial targets of $1208 and $1229 and a longer term target at $1268. On the lower side $1196 seems to support the yellow metal which if broken can lead to $1182 and finally $1168.

Do you think gold has broken off ? Think twice as the chart indicates a massive bull run ahead.


Gold’s weekly outlook: March 06-10

Gold fell on consolidation/profit-taking in the last week from the high of $1263 to settle at $1225.5 after gaining consecutively for 4 weeks. Gold slumped after completing the target of $1262 which generally happens when a term target is met followed by unwinding of long positions. This week gold started positively but was blocked by the resistance from where it saw a downward trend.

On weekly charts-

Gold snapped out of the trading range resulting in incremental selling pushing the prices lower towards the sub $1220 levels. Gold broke the support of $1229 (B) on the closing basis which now is acting as a short term resistance. On the chart, $1218-$1220 (C) is seen as a good support confirmed by intersecting ray lines where the price might find its feet and this price point offers a good re-entry into the metal for the initial target of $1238 as it is a fairly good resistance and even higher. On the flip side gold has a big support at $1208 (A) which if taken out might trigger a sell-off towards $1198.

On larger terms, gold is into a consolidation phase with a support at $1218 which can be used to re-enter and build fresh long positions with a trading stop loss at $1208 for the targets of $1238 and $1248 in short/medium term and $1268 for a longer term for the coming days/weeks.


Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 20-24

Gold has gained now for 3 consecutive weeks with last week’s bar being a fairly bullish indicator for the prices ahead. Many factors around the globe are supporting the safe haven demand but comments and data from U.S keeps the prices in check . This is resulting in a choppy trade with a positive bias, where as a breakout cannot be ruled out either which looks more likely towards the upside taking into account the current fundamentals.

On weekly the charts-
Gold is trading higher into the shaded region which has a high at $1262. This point on the chart seems to be a hurdle but a good resistance which the metal might face is at $1267-$1268 (C) confirmed by the intersecting bullish-bearish ray lines. This also shows the upside potential of the metal. Gold is currently in a bullish grip and prices are expected to rise further, though a reversal cannot be ruled out either. The metal has a support at $1220 (B) confirmed by the intersecting ray lines, any conclusive break might result in more downside towards $1198-$1200 (A) which is a major support for the gold price.

On larger terms a choppy trade with a positive bias is seen ahead with the upside looking intact with short/medium term targets of $1248 and $1268, and $1289 as a longer term target. Though, any conclusive breach of $1220 might be an early reversal signal which will be confirmed if the price breaks below $1200.