Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 01-05

Gold continues to trade in its range between $1185-$1215. Gold posted cuts of over $9 in the previous week on account of a stronger dollar due to Fed’s hawkish stance over its monetary policy. The range was finally tested on the downside as gold made a low of $1180 before closing above $1190. This again shows that the demand continues to be  high near the support and thus gives a bullish signal.

On the chart –

Gold’s consolidation continues as it was unable to break the range for the 5th straight week. Events failed to direct the metal towards a side thus its getting increasingly tough for gold to find a bias as this rangebound activity is causing confusion and fatigue among the traders. Though a good point is the support was held which suggests there is buying at lower levels so to some extent the downside seems protected. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold respected the support on closing basis. If this is held it can go till $1198. If this is crossed it can rally till $1208. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1217.

2. Short trades might not be the right choice till the $1185 holds. Once its broken it can fall towards $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls were tested and they emerged victorious as $1185 was held convincingly. Buying was visible at lower levels which drove the prices higher. Bullish bets remain intact and will only strengthen on the fact that the test of support was success. If $1185 holds then prices are bound to head higher and break out of this trading range.

Bearish view – Bears tried with all their might to pull down the price below $1185 but failed on the closing basis. For any bearish moves to blossom it should close below $1185.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways. Prices are stuck in a range and a break on either side will decide the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1198 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades gets active once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

gold weekly 76.png

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