Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 29 – Nov 02

Gold had another bullish week gaining more than $6 closing above its resistance at $1228. Week was another higher high and higher low one where gold moved over $23 testing the crucial $1243 whilst taking support around $1220 before closing at $1233. The continuous formation of this pattern along with testing next crucial levels does showcase the strength gold is currently displaying even as the dollar index is failing to support high gold prices. Driving factor for gold is the looming uncertainty caused by the geopolitical events and upcoming elections.

On the chart –

Gold rose for the 4th consecutive week dismantling the bear phase which it was gripped in. As the key events draw close its highly anticipated that this asset class will attract more and the prices should go northwards amidst high volatility. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had another strong week where it closed above the resistance of $1228, Now if this is held it can move higher to $1243. If this is taken out it can move till $1251. Once this is crossed it can rally till $1260.

2. Short trades doesnt suit the trend.

Bullish view – Bulls raged ahead for 4th straight week offsetting the earlier losses created in the span of 10 weeks before. Higher highs and higher lows continue to be formed which is giving more impetus to the bulls along with prevailing uncertainty. As expected $1243 was tested, now once this is taken out a huge move is on the cards as this will clear a big bottleneck. The key to amassing gains remains with the support being respected.

There lies no bearish view given the performance of the gold on the upside.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1236 for the targets of $1243 and $1251 with a stop loss placed below $1228. Longer term target $1260.
Short trades still remains against the trend, though they can be useful for scalping.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 22-26

Gold continued its uptrend as it rose over $8 for the week. The price action was a breakaway style one with $1217 taken out by a gap and this gap now becomes a key support. Uncertainties and rising political drama should fuel the demand for the yellow metal as Mid-Term elections are just few days away. Odds are extremely high for gold to create new highs every week till the support is respected.

On the chart –

Gold had a breakaway move since the first trade of the week which created a gap which now acts as a support for prices moving ahead. This is particularly a very important one as for gold to continue further up this has to be respected. Pattern of higher highs and higher lows is clearly evident which suggests bullishness is set to continue. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a breakaway gap and now $1217 acts as a big support. Till its held it can move up till $1236. If thats taken out it can head higher to test the crucial $1243. Once this is conquered then it can rise till $1260.

2. Short trades unfortunately are cornered by continuous breakouts happening on the bullish side. Scalping trades can be the effective trades on the short side till a change in trend is observed.

Bullish view – Bulls continue to storm ahead as they create new highs every week. The trend seems to have finally changed to bullish as patterns and price movement are giving the exact picture of the sentiment. With key levels being taken out by force is a sign that bulls have taken control and this should definitely grow in size in coming days. For bulls to keep accelerating they need to protect the newly formed supports as well as original ones which decided the the fate of the trend.

There is no bearish view as price action is too bullish for the moment.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1228 for the targets of $1236 and $1243 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1260. Short trades doesnt suit the trend, they can be useful for scalping.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 15-19

Gold finally broke its trading range as it rose over $14 for the week closing above $1215. The week was a big one where it moved nearly $45 from the lows to the highs where the gains were attributed to a sharp decline in the dollar index in the later half of the week. Gold made a 10-week high on account of risk-off trade being stepped up due to rising bond yields. This breakout is extremely bullish and the high of the range now becomes the support as gold will get costlier.

On the chart –

Gold made a move on the upside after being trapped in the range for nearly 2 months. The breakout seals the direction towards bullishness and fresh highs are on the cards. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a bullish breakout and if $1215 holds it can rise till $1228. Once this is crossed it can rally till $1243. And if this is taken out it can test the highs at $1260.

2. Short trades definitely are not the flavor as gold had bullish breakout.

Bullish view – Bulls finally won the battle as they were able to cross $1215 on closing basis. This sets the tone for coming weeks as it aint a minor breakout. Bulls now have the liberty and the required firepower to make the price go higher. Till $1215 holds gold can keep on creating fresh highs and should atleast test $1243 which was its breakdown point.

There is no bearish view as range was broken on the upside.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1217 for the targets of $1228 and $1243 with a stop loss placed below $1208. Longer term target $1260. Short trades dont have much value, they can only be worthy if $1215 breaks or can be used to scalp.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 08-12

Gold swung nearly $25 in the week testing its support and resistance as it continued to trade in the defined range of $1185-$1215 before closing with gains of $12 for the week. Gold closed above $1200 after a month even on account of a higher dollar index which suggests there might be more gains to come once the range gets broken on the upside. Another bullish week went by giving fresh lead to the bulls.

On the chart –

Gold remained in its range but gave a positive signal by closing above the crucial $1200. Though it was again a directionless week but plenty to take away from it as it formed a higher high and a higher low formation giving a deeper edge to the bulls apart from the significantly stronger closing. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1200 speaks plenty itself. If it manages to defend the support it can head towards $1208. If this is taken out it can move to $1217. Once this is conquered it can rally till $1228.

2. There are no short trades in the offing as the support was respected. They come online once $1185 breaks for targets of $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bull’s show of strength was quite visible as the closing was above $1200 since the support was defended perfectly. Gold is trying to gain momentum on the bullish side steadily but can only be confirmed once it breaks out of the range. Stronger moves are expected once $1215 is taken out as it been a hurdle for past many weeks.

Bearishness fails to lure as the the support was held. They become attractive once $1185 breaks.

On larger terms, Gold still remains sideways but with a mild bullish bias. Prices remain stuck in the range and a break on either side will decide the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1208 for the targets of $1217 and $1228 with a stop loss placed below $1195. Longer term target $1243.
Short trades go live once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 01-05

Gold continues to trade in its range between $1185-$1215. Gold posted cuts of over $9 in the previous week on account of a stronger dollar due to Fed’s hawkish stance over its monetary policy. The range was finally tested on the downside as gold made a low of $1180 before closing above $1190. This again shows that the demand continues to be  high near the support and thus gives a bullish signal.

On the chart –

Gold’s consolidation continues as it was unable to break the range for the 5th straight week. Events failed to direct the metal towards a side thus its getting increasingly tough for gold to find a bias as this rangebound activity is causing confusion and fatigue among the traders. Though a good point is the support was held which suggests there is buying at lower levels so to some extent the downside seems protected. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold respected the support on closing basis. If this is held it can go till $1198. If this is crossed it can rally till $1208. And if this is taken out it can move towards $1217.

2. Short trades might not be the right choice till the $1185 holds. Once its broken it can fall towards $1162 and $1123.

Bullish view – Bulls were tested and they emerged victorious as $1185 was held convincingly. Buying was visible at lower levels which drove the prices higher. Bullish bets remain intact and will only strengthen on the fact that the test of support was success. If $1185 holds then prices are bound to head higher and break out of this trading range.

Bearish view – Bears tried with all their might to pull down the price below $1185 but failed on the closing basis. For any bearish moves to blossom it should close below $1185.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways. Prices are stuck in a range and a break on either side will decide the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1198 for the targets of $1208 and $1217 with a stop loss placed below $1185. Longer term target $1228.
Short trades gets active once $1185 breaches, if it does then it can be sold for the targets of $1162 and $1123.

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