Gold’s weekly outlook: June 25-29

Gold continued it downtrend following a breakdown occurred in the week before suffering with cuts of over $10. Even with fundamentals favoring higher gold prices, the metal was unable to redeem itself out of the bear grip which looks to tighten with every passing day till the next support is reached and tested. Among all this negativity bulls can take heart from the fact the monthly 20 day moving average was respected and the prices pulled back from the lows sharply. Even with such a move and a weekly bar, trend reversal cannot be pointed out as the support line remains broken. For things to turn around either it needs to take support of the trendline or go back into the channel for bullish trend to emerge.

On the chart –

Gold kept piling on the negative returns amidst key fundamental event of trade war getting highlighted everyday which must have pushed the prices higher but it also failed to make any substantial positive impact on gold. Even the falling dollar index could not help the metal gain momentum on the upside but it helped cap the downside which may seem to stall if the dollar index remains weak. Its still gloomy for the bulls as its becoming a sell on rise kind of market. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold has an outside chance for an upmove but again it seems limited and possibly could be sold into as nothing has changed in the last week.

2. Gold’s downward journey is intact and a test of the support at the trendline is very likely. Gold failed to rise above the support of $1276, this can follow a retest of $1260. If this is broken it can slide till $1243.

There is no bullish view for the moment as technically gold is in a downtrend.

Bearish view – Bears kept the metal under pressure as they created a fresh low for the year on closing basis. Lower lows formation indicate the strength on the downside and its the better course to sight upon as there seems to be no buyers of gold even at lower levels. With such kind of price action its highly likely the next trendline support will be tested in coming days.

On larger terms, gold remains bearish with the prices expected to head south.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be sold below $1276 for the targets of $1260 and $1243 with a stop loss placed above $1284.
There are no long trades until the price moves back into the channel though bounces can be seen as long opportunities.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 18-22

Gold finally had a decisive week this time around breaking through crucial support on the back of rising dollar after weeks of consolidation. With a fall of over $20, gold saw selling on the last day of the week where it lost ground at a very quick pace. The selloff was not only limited to gold it crept to other commodities as well showcasing the strength of the rising dollar which may continue to rise further adding woes to the yellow metal. With the support broken trend shifts to the hands of bears but even in this situation gold remains a buy on dips as overall trend on larger timeframe is still bullish.

On the chart –

Last week played out to be a decider for the momentum of the yellow metal which fell prey to the bears. New low for the year was registered which speaks plenty itself regarding the shift in the trend but things are not so easily falling to full bear grip as further supports levels are there which if respected might lead to bounce back in gold and thus the trend. On the chart –

1. Gold had a breakdown and support lines were broken, for metal to turn bullish it has to get back into the channel again. Though a rise to retest the channel support cannot be ruled out.

2. Gold cracked through the supports and finally made a decisive move after many days. If it slides further it can go till $1276 where it should find some resistance. If this is broken it can fall towards $1260. If this is breached it can go lower till the support of the long term trend line at $1243.

Bullish view – Nothing much can be viewed as bullish given the movement which happened on Friday. For things to turn bullish price must re-enter the channel.

Bearish view – Bears ripped through the supports crashing gold to this year’s lowest point as they gained momentum on the downside. Bears are here to stay till the channel support which now is the resistance is held and they can drive the prices further lower to test the next support line. The price action and the momentum are with the bears so new lows cannot be ruled out in coming weeks.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bearish after a very long sideways movement trapped into the trading range of $1300-$1370 which has now been conclusively broken. Prices are expected to head lower to test the next support line but bounces towards the previous support cannot be ruled out.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be sold below $1281 for the targets of $1276 and $1260 with a stop loss placed above $1295. Longer term target $1243.
There are no long trades until the price moves back into the channel.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 11-15

Gold maintained its trend passing the week in a strict trading range where nothing could be stressed upon in terms of bullishness or bearishness. But again the long term trendline was respected which is considered to be a strong casing point for the bulls as the downside seems protected. Given the moves, it can be seen as a clear consolidation going on in gold as now 3 weeks have gone where the metal has been stuck in a range.
Next week is very crucial with lots of fundamental activity which should negotiate a directive move in gold possibly on the upside as the technicals suggest.

On the chart –

Gold is in a clear state of consolidation but a directive move is on the cards as a flurry of events are set to take place in the coming week, highlight being historic meeting between USA’s president Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on 12th. The coming week will definitely provide a trend for the yellow metal given the importance of the events lined up. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold is trading in a range, for it to go higher it must cross the $1308 which has been acting as a stiff barrier from last 3 weeks. If this mark is crossed it can rally till $1317. If this is conquered it can move to its next resistance zone at $1331.

2. There are still no short trades coming alive as the support/trend line is being respected. But if it breaks a fall towards $1281 and lower cannot be ruled out.

Bullish view – Yet again nothing for the taking for either bulls or bears in the past week as the price remained sideways stuck in a tight range. Once again bulls emerged winners on the ground the support of the trendline was held and prices bounced back from there. This move for the 3rd time consecutively suggests bulls are in a strong position and a break on the upside is on the cards as downside seems protected.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold still remains sideways as no direction was found. Gold has been tight-locked between the support and the resistance and a break of either will give a clear picture of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1308 for the targets of $1317 and $1331 with a stop loss placed below $1295.
There are no short trades unless $1281 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1265.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: June 04-08

Gold is hovering in a range with support and resistance getting tested every week. Yet again the prices moved in a very small band with gold suffering minor cuts of $6 for the week. $1300 got broken again but this is a new normal considering the price action that too within a strict range. The trend line was respected once again and the prices moved back from the lows suggesting the bullishness is yet not over even if $1300 mark is lost.

On the chart –

Gold’s closing below $1300 again doesn’t change the overall trend as support line was respected. Lot of fundamental news are expected which will move the prices in either direction but largely it shall remain rangebound given the current setup of gold. For any trend to set in a directive move is required. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold, for it to continue to mount gains $1295 is a must to be crossed. If this is crossed rally towards $1308 should materialize. And if this resistance zone is crossed it can move higher to $1317.

2. Gold is within its range, for short trades it must break the support/trend line. If $1281 is breached then it can fall towards $1265.

Bullish view – There is nothing much for either bulls or bears to take away but given the support being respected again bulls still have their fire burning and a rally higher cannot be ruled out if support holds.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, gold continues to remains sideways as no direction was found yet. Gold has been locked in between the support and the resistance and a break of either will give the clue of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1295 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1285.
There are no short trades unless $1281 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1265.

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