Gold’s weekly outlook: May 28 – June 01

Gold withstood another volatile week with prices swinging in both directions. Point to note, it gained $10 in such an environment and the most importantly closed above the crucial $1300 mark back again after one week’s fallout from the much hyped range. Such an activity might be purely technical in nature given the prices were outside the bollinger band and a pullback was on the cards, though the price took support at the trendline and retraced back which could be telling another story. If the support is held again it might be an indication of bottoming out and a price reversal.

On the chart –

Gold had a rocky week with prices testing both the support and the resistance but couldn’t manage to latch on the either. The key for last week’s close was the closing above $1300 mark which may speak plenty itself. If the support line is held then green bars cannot be ruled out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1300 suggests trend may have changed. If the support line is held then it can go higher till $1308. If this is crossed it can rally till $1317. And if this is conquered it can move towards the crucial mark at $1331.

2. Alternatively if gold falls below $1295 provided this was a trap for the bulls we can revisit lower levels again at $1281. If this is broken it will clearly indicate a massive shift in trend and lows of $1265 can be touched and even lower.

Bullish view – Bulls had a lot to take from this week, only did they not manage to post gains but conquered the crucial $1300 mark again. Such a closing is clearly bullish and if the support line is held then a move upwards is definitely on. The last week’s move could mean we might have created a bottom and new highs are on the cards as the ascending triangle formation was respected and the prices retraced back after hitting the support (the lowest part of the triangle), a breakout above $1370 will confirm the pattern’s relevance till then it will be in a range.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, gold remains sideways as no concrete direction was found except for the fact that it managed to close above $1300 and got back into the trading range of $1300-$1370.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1308 for the targets of $1317 and $1331 with a stop loss placed below $1298.
There are no short trades unless $1295 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1281.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 21-25

Gold finally broke the trading range it had been into from many weeks on the downside as it slid past $1300 comfortably and posted a nearly $20 weekly loss. This kind of movement was getting over-due and a fatigue was kind of setting in when the price action was taken into account. Fundamentally the events did not favor the rising prices thus allowing it to breach the crucial $1300 mark on the way down. Gold might find its feet soon as big downside even after the range expansion is not on the cards given the global factors which might keep the prices buoyed.

On the chart –

Gold’s breakdown suggests temporarily the bulls have gone in for a pause again. Support levels were taken out without much of a hassle though gold found support at lower and old support areas. Going back above $1300 might take some extra push from the bulls. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold tested it support at $1285 and bounced back, if this is held it may try to peg back towards $1295. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1308. If this is also crossed it can rally till $1317. Though long trades are not the favorites as range has broken on the downside.

2. Gold’s closing below the $1300 and its support level indicates more pain. This offers good opportunity for short trades which went missing from past many weeks. If $1295 is held it can fall lower to $1281. If this is breached it can have a dash towards the channel support at $1265.

Bullish view – There is some hope for the bulls as the prices bounced off from the 38.2 Fib level which also may act as a strong support going forward. If this is held then a rally back towards $1300 and higher cannot be ruled out. But in order to turn bullish prices need to conquer $1300 back or need to take support at channel lows or Fib retracement levels.

Bearish view – Bears were very ferocious this time as they eroded the critical $1300 mark by a good margin and that too on the closing basis. Such a close denotes more downside as key supports were breached. For bears, its a their time now after weeks of range bound activity as price action clearly favors them. For bears to continue pilling up the pressure they must not allow $1300 to be crossed.

On the larger terms, Gold has broken the range on the downside and more negativity is on the cards.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1298 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1290.
Gold can be sold under $1288 for the targets of $1281 and $1265.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 14-18

Gold withstood another volatile week where the prices see-sawed over $20 but the crucial $1300 mark was respected again showing great strength at lower levels. In such a wild week gold managed to add on to minor gains of just over $2 which is quite respectable given the fundamentals which are doing rounds around the globe. Gold pulled back into its trading range as depicted by trend-lines again on closing basis suggesting that the bullish trend remains intact.

On the chart –

Gold’s closing above the support level again oozes bullish sentiment which can further take the prices back above the decisive mark of $1331 and higher. Fundamentally gold has lots to take direction from and possibly the way is on the upside as the lows have been tested over 3 times and prices have bounced back strongly. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1317 suggests more upside ahead, if this is held it can go till $1331. If this trend deciding point is crossed it can rally till $1345. If this crossed it can move higher to the resistance zone at $1362.

2. There are no short trades emerging as the support was held. If $1317 breaks still the fall is limited to $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls again emerged on the top regardless of hammering they took in the first half of the week as they managed to get a higher closing and that too above the support of $1317. Once again the $1300 mark was defended which should muster enough motivation for the bulls to lead the way as both technically and fundamentally they are supported quite firmly. If the support levels are held we should see the prices back above $1345 mark sooner as the fall from highs was steep so similarly the rise can match that magnitude.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold still remains rangebound struck in its trading range of $1300-$1370. Need a breakout on either side to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1324 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1362.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 07-11

Gold had another tough week where it opened gap down over $10 and never really managed to go higher to fill the gap fully ending with cuts of over $5. Price action was mixed throughout the week where the metal tested the crucial support of the key $1300 mark and bounced back to close the week higher way above the support level of $1308. Technically a probable triple bottom seems to be in place on the weekly time frame which signifies a bottom may have formed in last week’s bearish dash towards the lows. But all said, the trading range of $1300-$1370 remains intact with the lower part of the range been tested suggesting again, we shall remain in it for sometime more and a breakout is yet again expected on the upside of the range.

On the chart –

Gold tested the solidarity of the $1300 mark and it was held firmly with buying emerging to push the prices higher back above the support and into the range as depicted by the trendlines. Such a pullback does ooze out bullishness with patterns giving more push the uptrend. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s rally from the lows suggest $1300 is not gonna go that easily and now that it has been tested again all the more probability of going higher has increased dramatically. If the support is held it can rise towards $1317. If this is crossed it can rally to its break even point at $1331. If this resistance area is crossed it can move towards $1345.

2. There are no short trades yet as the trading range was respected and supports held. Downside seems to remain capped at $1300 but if it breaks $1296 cannot be ruled out.

Bullish view – Bulls won this week even though it ended with cuts as they were able to defend the crucial $1300 mark yet again. Such price action which was illustrated in the week rings a bullish bell rather than a skeptical tone. The trading range was respected along with the supports should give bulls enough ammunition to take the prices higher.

Next 2 weeks are crucial for the metal as a key fundamental event is slated to take place and it will decide the fate of the gold.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold continues to remain rangebound struck in the trading range with price action cradled between $1300-$1370. Need a breakout on either side to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1314 for the targets of $1317 and $1331 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1345.
There are no short trades unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1300-$1296.

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