Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 26-Mar 02

Gold had volatility back as it dropped nearly $20 for the week. It never came out of the woods once the support at $1345 was breached and it remained under pressure for the week but managed to close above the 10 day moving average which is considered to be bullish in the bearish scenario as the support at $1331 got broken on closing basis. Weekly closing suggests a pause in bullish momentum but respect of the 10 day moving average suggests otherwise.

On the chart –

Gold had a down week after a having big upside which may be treated as consolidation of such high gains in a short span. But this volatility is not favoring either bears or bulls, one week up then down suggests confusion but the trend will remain bullish until $1300-$1308 is held. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing was not upto the mark to favor bulls but the respect of 10 day moving average on close did support the ailing bulls. If this support is held and if gold manages to cross $1331 then it can head higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can climb to $1362. If this is conquered it can move towards $1374.

2. There is a possible short trade as the support at $1331 was breached but still its limited to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls lost some shine again as they failed to hold on to the support at $1331 on closing basis but the thing aiding them is the 10 day moving average which was yet again held and gold bounced from there. If this support is held and if $1331 is crossed bulls would win the majority again and can pave the way for upside again which may lead to a higher high and a higher close than it did in the week before.

Bearish view – Bears ousted the bulls during the close as they managed to close below the support of $1331 which may lead to further downside towards $1317.

On larger terms, Gold has turned neutral with a mild negative bias and the prices are expected to be volatile as there is lot of confusion.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 19-23

Gold soared nearly $50 in the last week posting 52 week high gains in a given week before settling for gains above $30. Such a move was anticipated given the technical pattern of double bottom which was formed at $1307. Higher than expected Inflation data of America fueled the yellow metal’s gains which moved nearly vertically after a knee jerk reaction of a minor fall due to the rise in Dollar Index. Gold was, is, and will always remain a hedge for inflation and its move was clearly related to the data on fundamental grounds. This weekly move suggests gold remains in a strong bull trend.

On the chart –

Gold prices surged to highs of $1360s which was earlier created in this year facing a resistance for the week there after bouncing off the 10 day moving average. Gold held on the key support of $1308 and moved higher suggesting a bottom formation is in play at $1300. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold flew higher to the highs of $1360s where it faced resistance and declined towards its support. If this support is held then gold can move back higher to $1362. If this is crossed it can head towards $1374. If this 52 week high is conquered it can move north to new 52 week high at $1386.

2. There are no short trades unless the support is breached and if broken the downside is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls emerged a clear winner as they posted 52 week high weekly gains after 2 weeks of negative return which may be considered as consolidation. As $1308 was held bulls got the ammunition to push the prices higher and this time they pushed it very high climbing multiple resistances at one go before stopping at the earlier highs at $1360s. Both technically and fundamentally the data supported this bullish move. If this trend remains then $1400 is on the horizon sooner than thought off.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be in a strong bullish grip and prices are expected to be sideways to higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1356 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1386.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 12-16

Gold again slipped in a volatile trade as it kept on with the volatility in equities which may be the cause of the fall but it certainly differs from general outlook of gold being a safe haven in such times. Gold had a swing of $40 which tested both the support and the resistance before settling in for a cut of nearly $20 for the week. Such a reaction of yellow metal gives weak signals for the prices ahead but again it held on to the 10 day moving average and surged higher.

On the chart –

Gold had a volatile week giving opportunities to both bulls and bears but ended up favoring the bears yet again for the second consecutive week. Gold held on the key support of $1308 in the $1300s which must be held for the prices to move up again. We have 2 scenarios –

1. As gold held the support it bounced back in the last week, if this is held then gold can move higher to $1317. If this point is crossed then it can go higher to $1331. If this resistance area is conquered then it can move towards $1345.

2. There are no short trades unless the support is breached and if broken the downside is limited to $1297.

Bullish view – Bulls lost the party again but were able to held on to the key support of $1308 in the $1300s which can help them to lead the surge again. The week started off in good fortune for the bulls as they climbed to $1345 before the steam was lost and it toppled lower to test the support at $1308. For bulls to remain in the game $1308 must hold and if held we can see the prices reversing the 2 week weakness.

Bearish view – Gold broke through the support of $1317 and closed below it suggesting weakness in the demand of yellow metal. If the price falls below the support of $1308 it can go lower towards $1297 which is a key decisive point for the metal.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1320 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317.
There are no short trades unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 05-09

Gold saw a pullback of $15 in a very volatile week of trade which was more or less on the expected lines amidst cautious trading and gold hovering near its 52 week high. Week featured bloodbath in equities on account of bonds sell off which happened after a long time and this might have been the driver of gold to the negative direction as assets come under pressure when losses amass. Though this phenomena is expected to spill over in next week also its not necessary gold will see such pullbacks as it closed above the support of $1331 after testing it which is a positive for the yellow metal.

On the chart –

Gold was trapped in the band of $15 for most of the week but it had its breakout and breakdowns making the range bound week look a volatile one. But it had its takeaways even if it turned out to be rough week for the prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1331 and rebounded to close significantly higher, if this support is held then gold can rise back to $1345. If this is crossed it can head higher towards $1362. If this resistance area is conquered it can move towards its highs of $1374.

2. There are no shorts trades unless the support is broken, and if broken the downside is limited to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls had there chances throughout the week but failed to capitalize on the momentum which was swaying hard and fast. Only consolation and the positive point for them is the support at $1331 was respected and held upon which if still held can restart a fresh upmove. As stated in the earlier post the bulls will remain strong till $1308 is held and another U.S shutdown is looming in the next week which might push the dollar lower again which could be positive for the bulls.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.

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