Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 29-Feb 02

Gold soared to fresh 52 week high amidst a falling dollar and a hedge against continued bubble creation in equities market around the globe. Gold hit a high of $1365 before settling lower around $1350 mark on technical pullback as it was trading way outside the Bollinger band and it had to be pulled back inside the band. The upside yet again remains on the cards as it closed above the support of $1345.

On the chart –

Gold registered a fresh 52 week high and still remains in strong demand as circumstances around the globe both bubble in equity markets and geo political tensions linger. Gold’s closing above the support also suggest momentum is still with the bulls. We have 2 scenarios –

1. The closing above the support suggests the downside is limited and if the support holds it can climb back to its fresh 52 week high of $1365. If this is held it can rise to the highs of $1374.

2. There are no shorts trades unless the support is broken, and if broken the downside is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls continued the show of strength registering a fresh 52 week high but failed to sustain there. They still remain in the game as the support at $1345 was held and if it continues to be strong then the upmove back to the highs cannot be ruled out. Gold will remain in bullish grip till $1308 is held and its likely that bulls will keep on the winning ways intact. If the support holds and slump in the dollar strength continues gold can see new highs and a run towards $1400 mark is on the horizon.

There are no bearish views as the support was held. Only factor which may lead to a sideways to negative returns is no scope for further rise in weekly Bollinger band.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be in bullish grip and prices are expected to be sideways to higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1354 for the targets of $1365 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1400.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 22-26

Gold fell over $5 in the last week after hitting fresh 4 month highs as it completed the technical pattern of Head and Shoulder on weekly timeframe which was on expected lines. Such a pullback was purely technical in nature as the demand for gold is increasing as equities are getting riskier day by day. Geo political tensions also continue to back the yellow metal prices. Gold took support at $1331 and if it holds it can again head higher. A major factor affecting gold prices will be the reciprocation of U.S government shutdown which started from Saturday.

On the charts –

Gold created a fresh 4 month high before retreating to test the support in $1320s finally closing above the crucial mark of $1331. Such a swing tested both the support and the resistance. Political instability within America itself will be a guide for the gold prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold managed to close above the support of $1331 which if holds can restart the upward journey back to the highs of $1345. If this is crossed gold can head higher to $1362. If the 52 week high is conquered it can climb towards $1374.

2. There are yet again no short trades unless supports get breached.

Bullish view – Bulls registered a fresh 4 month high creating a higher highs and higher lows formation on the chart. The bullishness was kept on track as the price closed above the support of $1331 along with a political development of a U.S government shutdown which should propel the prices back higher. Bulls have a lot on their side to claim the title for the sentiment. If things unfold as they were feared of, gold can head higher to its 52 week high and beyond.

There is no bearish view as supports are continuously held upon.

On larger terms, gold remains in the grip of bulls with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1374.

There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 15-19

Gold continued its uptrend rising more than $15 in the week broadly on account of hedging in risk management as the equity markets are extremely overbought and are in huge risk of a potential global meltdown. Price tested its support at $1308 before surging higher to 4 month highs. Geo political tensions are also catering to the demand of yellow metal though it is near its lowest compared to previous weeks. Once gold broke out above $1331 there was no returning back and its expected to rise higher to its 52 week highs and maybe register a fresh one too in coming days/weeks.

On the chart –

Gold’s upward momentum gathered steam once it tested support at $1308. It was a fifth consecutive weekly gain for the yellow metal and also registered a gain of $100 from the lows. Clearly, gold looks to keep on mounting gains as risk of equity meltdown is increasing every passing day. Now the key support for continued uptrend can be shifted from $1308 to $1317. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s movement suggests the demand is increasing even at higher levels which was not case when it had earlier registered the 52 weak high. If this momentum is continued, gold can head higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can rise to its 52 week highs of $1362. If this resistance is crossed then it can climb higher to $1374.

2. There are no short trades unless the trend is changed and supports are broken.

Bullish view – Bulls overpowered the bears when they tried to lower the price below the support of $1308 and took to prices to 4 month highs from there. Bulls were again on top of their game as they added to 5th straight weekly gains and this momentum seems to continue as technically and fundamentally gold demand and prices are looking to head higher. The chart suggests a rounding bottom/cup formation which should take the prices higher. This momentum is expected to continue and the prices should head higher towards $1350-$1360 area.

There is no bearish perspective until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains in a strong uptrend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 08-12

Gold has been on a clear uptrend since mid Dec following the massive selloff which tested the key supports in sub $1230s. The metal saw renewed demand on account of a very weak US dollar index which is continuing its downtrend after the US Fed’s decision to hike the interest rate. Geo political tensions around the globe are also bolstering the safe haven demand. Once gold crossed its psychological barrier of $1300 it was only going higher. Closing above the support suggests more upside potential for the metal.

On the chart –

Gold has been on a tear rising nearly $90 in matter of 4 weeks broadly due to its asset class and low price compared to newly formed crypto currency asset class due to a giant rally in Bitcoin prices. Gold now looks to be in a bullish run following a long bearish cycle which lasted for more than 4 years. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold seems in a strong bull run, if the support at $1318 is held it can head higher to $1331 where it may find some selling. Once this price point is crossed it can rise to $1345. If this is taken out it can head to the highs of $1362.

2. There are no short trades as gold is in a clear uptrend.

Bullish view – Bulls are taking the party well into the new year with incremental gains seen as a clear head and shoulder pattern is seen on the weekly chart which suggests more upside. It seems the long awaited bull cycle has started and it should take the prices higher towards $1400 and beyond which is confirmed by the monthly chart which suggests a cup formation is in progress ending above $1400. Should the prices continue the uptrend from $1400 it can rally well into $1500 also in the current year itself. Current trend suggests more upside with targets of $1345-$1350.

There is no bearish view until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold is in a strong bullish trend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1321 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1362.
There is no positional short trade unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.

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