Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 09-13

Gold saw yet another week of decline which created a low exactly 100 points from the high the metal made in the past month. The yellow metal was under pressure from the start of the week and grind-ed lower to make a startling comeback on the last day of the week as the data from America was poorer than expected. The rise from the lows does suggest bottoming out and a reversal in the direction of the prices which is also technically confirmed by bollinger bands as the prices closed higher above the median.

On the chart-

Gold had a fall of $20 on account of factors which diluted the demand in the first 4 days of the week but prices staged a comeback to close lower by only $8 on account of data releases from America. This clearly suggests the correction might be over and a fresh upmove has started. Gold technically now becomes bullish after 4 weeks of bearishness. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s recovery from the lows does ring bullish bells and if this uptrend is maintained gold can head higher to $1284 which is an important point. If the metal crosses this point it can further rise to $1297 which is a good resistance. If this resistance is surpassed gold can climb to $1317 where the metal may find yet another resistance.

2. Gold has been in a correction for 4 straight weeks and the price action on the last day of the week does not favor the bears now. Gold can continue its declining trend only if $1261 is breached which is less likely.

Bullish view – Bulls were out of the picture until the last day of the week where they made their footing strong as the prices recovered over $12 from the lows. Bulls made a stellar comeback after 4 weeks of no activity and are here to stay as the price movement suggests. Such a move is considered extremely bullish and it signals trend reversal. With prices now in bullish grip after few weeks gold is expected to rise back above $1300 again.

There is no bearish perspective unless support is broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1279 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1269. Longer term target $1317.
There are no short trades but still gold can be sold under $1272 for the target of $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1284.

gold weekly 28


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