Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 30- Nov 03

Gold fell nearly $20 in the past week before settling for cuts of under $10. This was largely on the anticipated lines since there was no trigger for the gold prices to change course. The recovery from $1262s yet again shows buying at lower levels and it provides an outside chance for the bulls to recoup the losses. There is a big event in America next week with regards to Fed body which will drive the prices on either direction. Gold is still directionless as it mirrored the weekly move made earlier. There is a possibility that a double bottom or a cup and handle pattern has been formed which suggests cautious bullishness.

In the chart –

Gold fell back much lower to retest the bottom made at $1261. It closed significantly higher mirroring the move it made 2 weeks before. Such a bounce back from lows again suggests the yellow metal might be close to bottoming out or has bottomed out. Though gold is still split between the 2 parties but bullishness is creeping in the sight. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s recovery from lows suggests prices are finding buying at lower levels and are not ready to collapse yet. If this trend continues gold can head higher to $1284 once the support at $1271 is held upon. And if the prices takeout this resistance it can even climb higher to $1297 which is a strong decisive point on the chart.

2. Gold continued its downtrend and added to the losses after rejecting the resistance at $1280s. If this is to be followed gold can fall to test $1261 yet again. If this support is breached on the 3rd attempt gold can further slide to the supports at $1248.

Bullish view – Bulls were out of the picture but made their mark as they helped the prices go higher above the support at $1271 on the closing basis from the lows of $1261s. This was a mirrored move and suggests a bullish tone in the prices going ahead. For the prices to rise the support must hold.

Bearish view – Bears kept eroding the price to the lows of $1262s but failed to close below the support at $1271. This was a 2nd failed attempt which suggests their run might be coming to an end. To keep the bearishness intact price must break the support at $1261-$1263 which will open up further lows.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a mild positive bias. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 23-27

Gold fell back below $1300 and headed south towards the support area of $1279-$1281 as the sharp breakout above $1300 was a false one which attracted more short positions than long also supported by upmove in the dollar index which looks to have bottomed out. This poses caution to gold prices as a slight uptick in dollar index creates much impact on the yellow metal on the downside. Gold is currently directionless with prices expected to move sideways unless a course is chosen.

On the chart –

Gold erased all the gains of the previous week ending from where it had started. This U-turn from $1300 was account of a stronger dollar index and now less impacting Korean peninsula news flow. Gold is split between bulls and bears but has a slightly negative approach when it comes to prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1279-$1281 area, and if this is held gold can move higher which is uncertain since there is nothing fundamental to support the rise in prices. If the support is held, gold can rise to $1291. If this is crossed it can head higher to the very crucial area of $1297 which is a decider for further price action. And if this is taken out, prices can head north to $1317.

2. Gold lost the $1300 mark with ease which certainly sounds bearish. If the current trend prevails gold can fall to $1271 where gold may find some support. If this support is broken it can head back lower to $1261 where it had bottomed out. There is a chance gold might see further slide if $1261 is breached.

Bullish view – Only thing giving support to bulls is the price took support at $1279-$1281 area and rebounded from lows. Bullishness was erased by incremental fall in prices on daily basis. The way out for bulls is they need to hold this support to keep the green in gold prices. Gold will remain sideways unless a path is chosen.

Bearish view – Bears returned to the party with a flair as they kept eroding the prices from $1300 to the lows of $1280. Such price action definitely suggests confusion where one week is up and other down. Bears successfully broke through multiple supports signaling lack of buying and a change in trend. With such movement, prices may fall further to retest the bottom it created 2 weeks before.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a negative bias. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1291 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1271. Longer term target $1317.
Gold can be sold under $1279 for the targets of $1271 and $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1291.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 16-20

Gold made a comeback rising nearly $30 in the week on account of poor data yet again coming from America. Such a move was on anticipated lines as gold had made a bottom in the previous week. With a close above $1300 it strengthens the bullish picture for the prices. Gold crossed a key resistance at $1297 in one go which signals more up-move ahead.

On the chart –

Gold climbed back above the crucial $1300 mark on the backing of good fundamentals which supported the rise in the price. Though such a move was technically expected to happen and the fundamentals just confirmed it. Gold is in good bullish grip and the prices are expected to keep the rising trend intact. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s re-entry into $1300 suggests more activity for the bulls and if this trend continues which is extremely likely, gold can head higher to $1307. If this price point is taken out it can further rise to $1317 which is a resistance area. If this area is crossed gold can climb to $1334 which had earlier acted as a good support/resistance.

2. There are no short trades as gold has made a breakout again above $1300. Such positional trades can become active only if $1281 is broken.

Bullish view – Bulls were back in action after 4 weeks of slumber. They reconquered the crucial $1300 which clearly suggests more upside and maybe the metal can make a fresh 52 week high. Such big moves which takes out multiple resistances/supports are trend makers and in this case it is a strong bullish wave surging from the lows the metal had made. With the prices now in bullish trend, gold is expected to head higher and maybe create a new 52 week high in coming days/weeks.

There is no bearish perspective unless the trend is reversed.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1305 for the targets of $1307 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1294. Longer term target $1334.
There is no positional short trade available.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 09-13

Gold saw yet another week of decline which created a low exactly 100 points from the high the metal made in the past month. The yellow metal was under pressure from the start of the week and grind-ed lower to make a startling comeback on the last day of the week as the data from America was poorer than expected. The rise from the lows does suggest bottoming out and a reversal in the direction of the prices which is also technically confirmed by bollinger bands as the prices closed higher above the median.

On the chart-

Gold had a fall of $20 on account of factors which diluted the demand in the first 4 days of the week but prices staged a comeback to close lower by only $8 on account of data releases from America. This clearly suggests the correction might be over and a fresh upmove has started. Gold technically now becomes bullish after 4 weeks of bearishness. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s recovery from the lows does ring bullish bells and if this uptrend is maintained gold can head higher to $1284 which is an important point. If the metal crosses this point it can further rise to $1297 which is a good resistance. If this resistance is surpassed gold can climb to $1317 where the metal may find yet another resistance.

2. Gold has been in a correction for 4 straight weeks and the price action on the last day of the week does not favor the bears now. Gold can continue its declining trend only if $1261 is breached which is less likely.

Bullish view – Bulls were out of the picture until the last day of the week where they made their footing strong as the prices recovered over $12 from the lows. Bulls made a stellar comeback after 4 weeks of no activity and are here to stay as the price movement suggests. Such a move is considered extremely bullish and it signals trend reversal. With prices now in bullish grip after few weeks gold is expected to rise back above $1300 again.

There is no bearish perspective unless support is broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1279 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1269. Longer term target $1317.
There are no short trades but still gold can be sold under $1272 for the target of $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1284.

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