Gold’s weekly outlook: Aug 07-11

Gold broke the winning streak as it settled lower by $9 on account of better than expected data from America which fueled up the dollar index from its lows. Gold marginally closed lower from the crucial bullish support of $1261 but even such a minor hiccup might cause the metal to gain plenty of reasons for a corrective move. Though no big moves are expected but with this sort of close gold might end up having a sideways to negative coming days/weeks until its back above the $1261 mark.

On the chart –

Gold fell after completing its pattern which was widely expected, the fall extended below the Fib’s 61.8% mark which is seen negative for the metal. Gold has a crucial pivot point at $1251 also confirmed by the bullish-bearish trendlines (black lines) which must hold for keeping the bulls in the game, if violated gold can see an extended fall. With such crucial points coming back into action there are 2 scenarios –

1. Gold lost its luster after 3 consecutive weeks of rise which again is on technical grounds. For gold to continue its uptrend it must trade above $1261, and if this happens gold can move higher to $1271. And if this point of resistance is taken out gold can head north to $1281 where again the metal should find some selling pressure. If this zone is crossed gold can move to its highs of $1297 where it will form a triple top which is a good technical resistance/reversal indicator.

2. Gold fell on technical grounds after completing the pattern. This completion might result into a correction which can move gold lower if it breaks the $1251 mark. If this mark is broken it can move lower to $1241 which is a fairly good support. Now if this support is taken out gold can slide to $1227. And if this area is violated gold can see further selling towards $1217 which is a good support.

Bullish view – Bulls lost their winning ways as prices slid below the bullish support support of $1261. Bulls are not out of the game as prices are still trading in the upper part of the Bollinger band. Prices are expected to bounce back if $1251 is held which looks likely given the importance of the point and the technicals.

Bearish view – Bears regained the power as the prices had a cut of $9 also sliding below the Fib’s 61.8% mark which seems negative. Bears can add on the ammunition once $1251 is taken out and the price moves are totally in favor of them after that. If $1251 is broken prices are expected to continue its slide towards $1241.

On larger terms, Gold looks sideways with mild negative bias. Prices are expected to be sideways unless a direction is created on a conclusive basis.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1261 for the targets of $1271 and $1281 with a stop loss placed below $1251. Longer term target $1297.
Gold can be sold below $1251 for the targets of $1241 and $1227 with a stop loss placed above $1261. Longer term target $1217.

gold weekly 20

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