Gold saw a rise of more than $25 in the week owing to a weakening dollar index due to poor data coming from America and heightened risks in the global equities due to very high indices which seems to be overbought. The rally was more on the back of technical grounds after it bottomed out near $1200, now retracing back according to Fib levels. If gold manages to take out a crucial Fib level of 61.8, it can head higher to its highs of $1297. Another thing to look out in the week is the upcoming monthly Fed meet over interest rate decision.
On the charts –
Gold made another dash towards its retracement levels which it crossed above the 50% mark to close at $1254. Now its expected to head higher to 61.8% levels from where a possible change in direction might be on the cards if it fails to take it out.
Gold is trading well into its range circle and now a pattern (2 black lines) looks to be completed in upcoming days. There are 2 scenarios taking into the Fed meeting in account –
1. Gold broke above the 50% mark of Fib levels which is suggesting more upside as other factors are also aiding the uptrend like a weakened dollar index. If this move continues gold can head higher to $1261 (A) which is a good resistance (red line) as its very near to the 61.8% level. If this area is taken out, gold can climb even higher to $1275 (B) where it found some more resistance as seen in the earlier weeks. Now if this multiple resistance zone is conquered gold can see more upside to its highs of $1297 (C) where it may find some selling pressure as it will form a triple top.
2. Gold is clearly on the breakout on upside but the Fed meeting outcome might change that. If a hawkish statement is out which is very less likely gold can slide towards $1237 (1). If this level is broken gold might fall lower to $1217 (2) which is a good support area (green line). And if this support zone gives way gold may sulk back to its lows of $1204 (3) from where the prices rebounded.
Bullish view – Bulls were back on the winning ways for the 2nd consecutive week as poor data and risks increased the demand for gold. Aiding the bulls is the technical breakout over 50% Fib levels which should result in expansion to 61.8% and also the fact that a pattern (black lines) is on the formation spree which has a high of $1275. Gold also is expected to take ques from Fed outcome which had already given a dovish statement in earlier weeks on its rate hike programme which again is bullish for gold. Gold is expected to move higher on both technical as well as fundamental grounds.
There is nothing bearish worth mentioning apart from any change in stance of the Fed over its rate hike pitch which may alter the course for gold but it is less likely since the Fed has already expressed its dovish views. And gold will turn bearish only if the Fib level of 61.8% is respected and it reverses from there.
On larger terms, Gold remains bullish as the dollar index is still trading at new lows with the prices expected to head north to $1269-$1275.
Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the upside, Gold can be bought above $1254 for the targets of $1261 and $1275 with a stop loss placed below $1244. Longer term target $1297. Gold can also be bought on dips with a stop loss placed below $1237.
Short trades are unlikely but still gold can be sold below $1241 for targets of $1237 and $1217 with a stop loss placed above $1251. Longer term target $1204.