Gold’s weekly outlook: July 31-Aug 4

Gold gained for 3rd consecutive week on account of a Dovish Fed outcome which resulted in lower dollar index thus fueling the gold price. Gold managed to post a decent weekly gain of over $13 which was on the expected lines since a pattern was in the formation as shown in Gold’s weekly outlook: July 24-28. The crucial Fib level of 61.8% acted as a resistance in the early part of the week but was taken out during the later half which does suggest continuous bullishness. Gold is now on track to touch its highs of $1297.

On the chart –

Gold took out the retracement level of 61.8% on closing basis with a good margin which puts bullishness firmly on the table. With such a closing, its expected to go higher to its highs of $1296-$1298 where it may find good resistance as it will form a triple top. With the Fed meeting out of the way, gold can move steadily without much volatility. With pattern near completion we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold broke through the levels of Fib which now suggests a move even more higher to $1296-$1298 zone. This move was largely on the weakened dollar index which was trading at fresh lows. With such fundamentals aiding gold, it is expected to move higher to $1271 (A) which is a trough area for the yellow metal. If gold is able to cross this area it will see more upside to $1278 (B) which is a fairly good resistance on the chart. If this resistance level is taken out, gold can head higher to $1297 (C) where its expected to see a lot of resistance on account of formation of triple top.

2. Gold is clearly in an uptrend so taking a short call is on the contra side but it is still possible if gold moves lower after completing the pattern though such a move is less likely given the breakout seen. Gold can move lower to $1251 (1) if it slides below the Fib level of 61.8% which is near $1261-$1263. If this area is taken out gold can fall further to $1241 (2) which is a good support area. If this support zone is breached gold can tumble down to $1224 (3).

Bullish view – Bulls are in the charge for the 3rd consecutive week as the price heads higher now trading in the upper part of the bollinger band which suggests continued uptrend which should last till it hits the highest point on the band. Breakout of technical levels and Fed’s dovish stance gives more impetus to gold for moving higher and maybe create a new high in the coming days/weeks. Gold is expected to register a high of $1297 or more given the scenarios which is extremely positive for the metal.

There is nothing worth mentioning on the bearish side since everything is pointing towards bullishness. This can change only if prices start to trade below $1261-$1263 which is unlikely.

On larger terms, Gold is in a strong bullish grip as the dollar index is continuously trading at new lows. Prices are expected to move higher towards $1296-$1298.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the upside, Gold can be bought above $1271 for the targets of $1278 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1261. Longer term target $1305. A buy on dips is also suggested till $1261 with a stop loss placed below $1251.
Short trades are unlikely until $1261 is breached. Gold can be sold below $1261 for the targets of $1251 and $1241 with a stop loss placed above $1271. Longer term target $1224.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 24-28

Gold saw a rise of more than $25 in the week owing to a weakening dollar index due to poor data coming from America and heightened risks in the global equities due to very high indices which seems to be overbought. The rally was more on the back of technical grounds after it bottomed out near $1200, now retracing back according to Fib levels. If gold manages to take out a crucial Fib level of 61.8, it can head higher to its highs of $1297. Another thing to look out in the week is the upcoming monthly Fed meet over interest rate decision.

On the charts –

Gold made another dash towards its retracement levels which it crossed above the 50% mark to close at $1254. Now its expected to head higher to 61.8% levels from where a possible change in direction might be on the cards if it fails to take it out.
Gold is trading well into its range circle and now a pattern (2 black lines) looks to be completed in upcoming days. There are 2 scenarios taking into the Fed meeting in account –

1. Gold broke above the 50% mark of Fib levels which is suggesting more upside as other factors are also aiding the uptrend like a weakened dollar index. If this move continues gold can head higher to $1261 (A) which is a good resistance (red line) as its very near to the 61.8% level. If this area is taken out, gold can climb even higher to $1275 (B) where it found some more resistance as seen in the earlier weeks. Now if this multiple resistance zone is conquered gold can see more upside to its highs of $1297 (C) where it may find some selling pressure as it will form a triple top.

2. Gold is clearly on the breakout on upside but the Fed meeting outcome might change that. If a hawkish statement is out which is very less likely gold can slide towards $1237 (1). If this level is broken gold might fall lower to $1217 (2) which is a good support area (green line). And if this support zone gives way gold may sulk back to its lows of $1204 (3) from where the prices rebounded.

Bullish view – Bulls were back on the winning ways for the 2nd consecutive week as poor data and risks increased the demand for gold. Aiding the bulls is the technical breakout over 50% Fib levels which should result in expansion to 61.8% and also the fact that a pattern (black lines) is on the formation spree which has a high of $1275. Gold also is expected to take ques from Fed outcome which had already given a dovish statement in earlier weeks on its rate hike programme which again is bullish for gold. Gold is expected to move higher on both technical as well as fundamental grounds.

There is nothing bearish worth mentioning apart from any change in stance of the Fed over its rate hike pitch which may alter the course for gold but it is less likely since the Fed has already expressed its dovish views. And gold will turn bearish only if the Fib level of 61.8% is respected and it reverses from there.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish as the dollar index is still trading at new lows with the prices expected to head north to $1269-$1275.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the upside, Gold can be bought above $1254 for the targets of $1261 and $1275 with a stop loss placed below $1244. Longer term target $1297. Gold can also be bought on dips with a stop loss placed below $1237.
Short trades are unlikely but still gold can be sold below $1241 for targets of $1237 and $1217 with a stop loss placed above $1251. Longer term target $1204.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 17-21

Gold rose over $15 in the past week recovering from a massive fall as it rebounded from its long term support area. This rally was largely on back of dismal data coming from America which pushed the dollar index to new lows thus pulling up the yellow metal prices. Gold climbed back into its trading range of $1215-$1297 but still remains in the uncharted waters as shown in the chart below. Weekly chart is indecisive but current move favors more upside than downside as dollar index broke the support on the monthly chart.

On the chart –

Gold’s price action was on expected grounds as it took support on the edge of the bearish circle and rose till the edge of the bullish circle which was highly likely if the support was not breached. But such a move which is still outside both circles doesn’t give clear indication of further price movement. Circles denote the trading ranges, green one is the bullish circle while the red one is the bearish circle. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold climbed back into the trading range which suggests more upside till it remains in it but for confirmation gold needs to trade above the black trendline which it resisted in the past week and move into the green circle as shown in the chart. If gold breaks this resistance then it can move higher to $1241 (A). If this price point is crossed gold can move further up to $1248 (B) which is a fairly good resistance. If this area is conquered gold can race up to $1269 (C) which is again a good resistance on the chart and it may alter the direction of the gold if this price point is not crossed. And if this crucial resistance is crossed gold can move higher to $1281 (D).

2. Gold’s move can be considered as a relief rally as it fell too much in less time. And the rejection at the resistance on the edge of the circle and also the black trendline suggests gold may again resume its downtrend. If the rally fails gold can slide back to $1217 (1). This is a good support and bottom of the bullish circle, if this fails to hold gold can move lower to $1204 (2) which is a long term support area for the metal on all time frames on the chart. If this crucial price point is breached gold can slide lower to $1184 (3). And if here also the price fails to change course it may fall further to $1169 (4).

Bullish view – Bulls were on the charge in the week as the price moved higher from the lows of $1204 to the highs of $1232 on account of a weaker dollar index and lower level buying since the ever crucial support area was not breached. According the Fib retracement gold should move higher which will give more consolation to the bulls. As per the technical indicators gold is expected to move higher towards $1248-$1251.

Bearish view – Bears took a breather as gold rallied from the lows which is broadly considered as a relief rally since no decisive moves can be identified since gold is in uncharted waters between the 2 circles. Rejection on the edge of the bullish circle indicates continued bearishness which is also confirmed by the black trend line which was not crossed on closing basis. If this rejection at higher levels continues gold can fall back into the bearish circle which will erode the prices to $1184 and lower.

On larger terms, Gold is neutral with a mild positive bias since the dollar index is trading at fresh lows. Prices are expected to be sideways until either of the trading ranges are broken into. Current setup favors a break into the bullish circle.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1234 for the targets of $1241 and $1248 with a stop loss placed below $1217. Longer term target $1269 and $1281.
Gold can be sold under $1221 for the targets of $1217 and $1204 with a stop loss placed above $1234. Longer term target $1184 and $1169.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 10-14

Gold crashed over $30 in the past week breaking all supports broadly on account of Hawkish Fed minutes and better than expected data coming out from America. Incremental selling was visible from start of the week and there was no respite for the yellow metal as it continued its downward trend going below its long time support of $1208 but settled a bit higher above it. Weekly chart suggests a breakdown as the price failed to remain in the trading range of $1215-$1297 as showed here.

On the chart –

Gold was unable to hold into the trading range which is quite bearish and suggests further correction which now goes on to create an inverted W pattern on the weekly chart. Furthermore a Gartley’s pattern might be in play which may lead the prices even lower to sub $1150 levels. Circles denote the trading ranges, bigger one can still keep bulls in the game while the smaller one suggests a complete bearish party. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Long trades are not currently favoring the market sentiment except for any big event happening in Koren peninsula which might turn the tide and change the course of the gold or large buying at lower levels might give some impetus to the prices. If anything stated above happens gold can move higher to $1221 (A). If this level is crossed it can even climb higher to $1231 (B). And if this resistance area is conquered gold can move higher towards $1269 (C) which is very much unlikely in the current situation.

2. Decline in gold resumed for the 2nd straight week which was even more denser than the weeks before indicating lack of buying interest even at lower levels. Damage was done to the prices as good supports gave way briskly. With such selling pressure seen, gold can further move down to $1198 (1) where it will complete an inverted W pattern. If this support area fails to hold gold can slide lower to $1184 (2) which is a bigger support zone and also the end of the bullish circle from where the prices are expected to reverse. If this zone gives way, it can fall further towards $1169 (3). And if situations still remain bearish gold can even slide lower to $1147 (4) which is a possibility according to the Gartley pattern which may be on the play.

There is no long trades expected since Gold saw a complete breakdown of the supports, except for buying kicking in when the inverted W is completed or near the lower end of the bullish circle. Gold might go up in an adverse event of global tensions rising from Korean Peninsula else its clearly in a downtrend.

Bearish View – Bears were on top of their game as they eroded the prices over $30 and were able to break through critical supports and the ascending triangle formation. Every pullback was sold into indicating bearishness in the air. Once the $1240-$1241 mark was broken it never came back and selling intensified afterwards pulling the prices lower to break the circle support/trading range. If such selling continues gold can slide lower to $1184 where it is expected to find some support.

On larger terms, gold looks bearish with the prices expected to go lower towards $1184 and sell on rallies is advisable.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the downside, Gold can be sold under $1208 for the targets of $1198 and $1184 with a stop loss placed above $1217. Longer term targets $1169 and $1147. Gold can be sold on rallies with stops placed above $1229 or $1234.
Long trades are not the flavor but gold can be bought above $1217 for the targets of $1221 and $1231 with a stop loss placed below $1208. Longer term target $1251 and $1269. Gold can be bought near the supports of $1198 and $1184 with strict stops.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: July 03-07

Gold resumed its slide as price cracked over $20 on first day of the trading week before settling with loss of under $10 on the same day thus showing the importance of the support at $1241 after which it consolidated in this price range. Gold for the week closed above the support of $1241 which was expected with a cut of another $16 as better than expected data from America dislodged the recovery from the lows. Gold on the weekly chart has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is a bullish sign.

On the chart –

Gold withstood the flash crash where it lost substantially but again the lower level buying was clearly visible as the price rebounded from the lows to close higher above the key support of $1241. Candle formed does not emit bullishness but the formation of the ascending triangle (violet trend lines) suggests positive price action in the coming days. The circle denotes the the trading range of the gold. In the given circumstance we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold sold off heavily in the start of the week but retraced its losses in the later half closing above the support of $1241. Thus a consolidation with a positive bias was the flavor for the week after the flash crash which bled over $20 in matter of minutes. With gold taking support at $1241 and a closing above it prices might go up towards $1248 (a) which is a decisive point for direction of the metal ahead. If this price point is crossed gold can go higher towards $1262 (A). If the momentum continues gold can mover further up towards $1278 (B) where it may find resistance as it did in earlier weeks. If this resistance area is crossed gold can move northwards to the highs of $1297 (C). A buy on dips is again advised if gold falls to sub $1230 levels.

2. Short trades are a contra call and not advisable until gold breaks the ascending triangle formation support at $1240-$1241 which will give way to $1234 (1). And if this support zone fails to hold prices can slide to the lower end of the circle at $1217 (2) which will act as a massive support and such a move is very much unlikely.

Bullish view – Bulls should be happy to take anything above $1241 as it suggests positivity as the prices remain in the pattern of ascending triangle. All the dips towards sub $1230 were bought into indicating demand at lower levels which is quite bullish. Again the downward movement of gold was technical in nature and not fundamental which is expected to reverse in coming days. If this buying pressure continues gold is expected to move higher towards $1278 in coming days due to the formation of ascending triangle.

Again there is nothing worth noting on bearish side until support of Ascending Triangle breaks and prices move lower which is unlikely in the given setup.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain positive with a bullish bias with prices expected to move higher towards $1278 and a buy on dips is highly recommended.

Possible trades are on both sides but preferably on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1248 with targets of $1262 and $1278 with a stop loss placed under $1240. Longer term target $1297. A buy on dips is again advisable for the week with stop losses placed below $1234.
Inversely gold can be sold under $1241 for targets of $1234 and $1217 with a stop loss placed above $1251. Longer term target $1208. But short trades are unlikely in the given situation.

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