Gold’s weekly outlook: June 26-30

Gold staged a stellar recovery from the lows of $1240s to close significantly higher at $1256 adding gains for the week. Gold fell to a 5 week low in the start of the week but managed to plow back the loss as buying at lower levels was clearly visible along with poor data coming out of America which aided the metal to erase the losses. Gold broke the bearish pattern with such a candle formation which points to a casing victory for the bulls and signalling further gains ahead.

On the chart –

Gold saw through the incremental selling in the start of the week which initiated buying at lower levels fueling the prices back above the crucial $1249-$1251 zone which was a technical area for reversal as mentioned in the earlier weekly review. Candle formed suggests trend reversal as selling got arrested and gold bounced from the lows. The circle denotes the range gold is expected to trade in. As per above situation gold has 2 scenarios but it points to bullishness over bearishness –

1. Gold bled in the start of the week but was followed with incremental buying at lower levels which propelled the prices higher adding gains for the week. Such a move was widely expected on account of Fib retracement. If this momentum continues gold is expected to rise to $1269 (A) where it may find some resistance. If this price point is crossed gold can move forwards to $1278 (B). And if situation favors gold, prices can move higher to highs of $1298 (C) which will act as a good resistance.

2. Short trades are not the flavor of the week nor advisable but still gold can slide to $1248 (1) once $1251 is broken as it lends good support to the prices. If this level gives way gold can fall further to $1241 (2). And if things turn for worse gold can see more downside towards $1227 (3) which is a good support on the chart.

Bullish view – Bulls were never out of the game as they held the crucial $1241 level and prices rebounded from such lows. A buy on dips/lower level buying was clearly visible since the fall was bought into and the downside got arrested. Gold was following the pattern which it created when it started to fall from the highs but the pattern got dismantled suggesting trend reversal which is extremely positive for the bulls. This buying pressure should continue and gold is expected to move higher in the coming week.

There is nothing bearish which is notable thus a view on the same cannot be taken into account seeing the weekly price movement and candle formation.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish with prices expected to move higher towards $1278.

Possible trades are on both sides but preferably on the longer side, Gold can be bought around $1259 for targets of $1269 and $1278 with a stop loss placed below $1249. Longer term target $1298. A buy on dips is again advisable for the week with stop losses placed below $1241.
Short trades are unlikely but still gold can be sold below $1248 for targets of $1241 and $1227 with a stop loss placed above $1259. Longer term target $1208.

gold weekly 15


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