Gold was fairly volatile in a range in the previous week but managed to gain nearly $10. Gold was stuck in a range of $1247 and $1269 as in early part of the week gold tested the bottom of the range whilst tested the high on the later half of the week. Such range bound weeks often indicate loss of direction but this time it was showing bullishness in the prices rather than a confusion over the movement of Gold. Next week might be a favorable one for the bulls as indicated by the patterns on the chart.
On the chart –
Gold was not out of the hands of the bulls for the entire week and gold added to the gains even if it was barely $10. Gold was expected to trade in a range which it complied to. Circles in the chart denote the ranges gold can trade in, and 2 symmetric circles point to the fact that we might see bullishness which will complete the empty symmetric circle. With shapes pointing towards a bullish move we have a scenario for it –
Gold rose higher after testing the bottom of the range on the first day of the week which suggested bullishness in the prices. Gold shrugged off the volatility caused by Fed Meeting Minutes in the past week and rose higher. With this bullish momentum going on, it may rise to $1283 (A) with a brief pressure faced at $1272 levels. If gold is able to take out this price point it is expected to move higher towards it highs of $1298 (B) which will be seen as a resistance area for the gold as generally highs tend to react in the same way. If this resistance area is taken out we may see further upward movement to $1307 (C) where gold might find a bit of trouble as it is near the highs of the circle.
On a side note, a bearish scenario is also there but its unlikely. The view, Gold can move lower towards $1242 (1) if situations make a turn and gold bulls are trapped. If this price area is taken out it can head lower towards $1228 (2) and if this area gives way prices may head southwards to $1213 (3) which is the lowest point of the circle.
Bullish view – Bulls were not out of the game as the range was respected and the prices turned positive after hitting the lows. Bullish bets were active since the range was not broken with bulls defending $1247 mark third time which suggests a triple bottom thus making the prices surge higher due to such pattern formation. This surge may continue and gold is expected to move higher in the coming week. According to patterns gold may make a new high in coming days/weeks.
On larger terms, Gold looks bullish as patterns indicate movement on the upside. Prices are expected to head higher into the the circle moving into next trading range of $1271 – $1308.
Possible trades are mostly on the bullish side, Gold can be bought around $1272 for the targets of $1283 and $1298 with a stop placed below $1263. Longer term target $1307. If we see a fall in the prices it can be bought near $1259-1263 for the above targets with a stop loss placed below $1247.
Short trades are unlikely, though gold can be sold near $1247 for targets of $1242 and $1228 with a stop loss placed above $1258. Longer term target $1213.