Gold’s weekly outlook: April 16-20

Gold had another big range week having moved nearly $40 from the lows to the highs. In such a volatile week gold managed to post decent gains of nearly $10 which was broadly on account of fundamentals surrounding the trade war and geopolitical tensions involving Syria this time. Supports were held whilst the stiff resistances also played their part not allowing a large percentage gain. The momentum seems to keep pace with the bullish aura which had set in when $1300 was crossed.

On the chart –

Gold had a big week with large swings on the upside but couldn’t hang on to the gains it created but managed to keep the bar green with a modest $10 rise compared to rise seen in the week. With the 20 day moving average being respected almost every week the bullishness is getting strengthened and it is expected to head higher. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the support suggests more upside may be on the way. If the support is held it can head higher to $1362. If this is crossed it can rise to $1374. And if this is conquered it can register a new 52 week high at $1392.

2. There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, if it happens still it is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls had a great outing cherishing gains of more than $35 in the week but failed to capitalize on it, still they managed to have a green week and added another $10 on the upside. A close above the support of $1345 can be assumed to add more power to the bullish tone. Fundamentals are currently favoring the bulls which might take the price to $1400 sooner than imagined. Another green week is expected if the supports are held and if geopolitical tensions keep the markets on edge.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain in a strong bullish grip and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1354 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1392.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 09-13

Gold gained over $10 in a very volatile week of trade which was broadly affected by fundamentals surrounding the trade war. Gold had big swings on both upside and downside having a combined range of nearly $30 which was constituted by a rise in first half of the week and then a fall from highs over tensions easing in the later half. Even in this volatility it managed to close above the support of $1331 which indicates strength in the metal. Furthermore, some more action is expected on fundamental terms in coming weeks which could dictate the pricing but all in all the metal has taken support at 20 day moving average again and looks in a fairly good bullish trend.

On the chart –

Gold had a wild week testing both supports and resistances but managed to latch on to gains and eventually closed above the key level of $1331 which is positive for the metal going ahead. Fundamental developments will aid the prices in either direction but its expected to be on the positive side. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1331 suggests upside momentum could continue. If this support is held then it can move higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can rise towards $1362. If this big resistance area is taken out then it can create a fresh 52 week high of $1374.

2. Short trades remain muted in the given scene but if $1331 breaks it can slide to its support at $1317. And if this fails to hold it can fall towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls were back after a big red week but they failed to capitalize on the gains created in the early half of the week, still they won the week as they managed to close above the crucial $1331 mark which suggests more upside ahead after receiving a battering from highs in the later half of the week. From past few weeks gold is able to hang on to its 20 day moving average which is very positive for the bulls to keep the momentum going on the upside even if they fail in the week to manage gains. Such a move certainly indicates the breath is largely positive and new highs are on the cards.

There is no bearishness unless the supports get broken.

On the larger terms, Gold still remains sideways but now has a bullish bias. Metal is yet again confined in a range and a break of such will determine the outcome of the brawl going on from past few weeks, and chances of a break on upside is largely high.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.

There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 02-06

Gold took a u-turn after hitting the resistance area and dropped over $35 from the highs before settling for cuts of over $20 for the week. Gold has been making lower highs and lower lows whenever it breaks out which is not a good sign for the bullish trend, but given the fact moreover every time the $1300 mark has been held gives impetus to the overall trend to remain bullish. Such a down move can be exclaimed as a retracement of the move from the lows of $1301-02 to the highs of $1356-57, and this may yet again act as a support zone for the coming week.

On the chart –

Gold had a pullback from the highs in a truncated week of trading and seems to have found support at the 38.2% mark of Fib retacement on closing basis. Still gold remains trapped in the range and was not able to carry the momentum it gained last week to break free. Thus the scene becomes same again –

1. Gold’s closing above the support indicates there might still be room for the upside but that can only happen if it takes out $1331. If this is taken out it can move towards $1345. If this area is held then it can move back higher to $1362. And if this big resistance zone is crossed it can head to fresh 52 week highs at $1374.

2. With gold becoming choppy and getting plowed back into the range again short trades can come effective if $1331 is defended. It can fall to the support at $1317. If this fails to hold it can further slide towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls were having the momentum on their side for the first half of the week but ultimately conceded the gains but managed to hang on to supports of Fib retracement as the key $1331 was broken. If they manage to hold on to supports then a rally back towards the highs cannot be ruled out though since it being in a range not much gains can be expected till its broken. Price action is choppy and confusing but supports need to hold for any upmove to continue though the overall trend remains bullish till $1300 is held.

Bearish view – Bears ousted the bulls yet again by not allowing them to continue the momentum from last week. The highs were taken as a good shorting opportunity and the price got eroded below the key level of $1331. Same goes for bears what went for bulls, in a choppy scenario much gains on the downside is also not expected unless $1300 breaks down.

On larger terms, Gold turned sideways again with a bearish bias as the closing was not upto the mark plus the pattern created has scope for both upside and downside. On a broader picture gold is still confined in a range and it must break on either side for a decisive trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: March 26-30

Gold rose more than $30 in the past week after bouncing off its support area at $1308. Such a move was on expected lines if the support was held and the size of the move was due to the low volatility seen in the previous weeks which was showing signs of accumulation and it sort of mirrored a catapult kind of move as the prices were held back and consolidating within a range then fired up breaking through the range. Gold had a good closing after a month as it managed to conquer $1345 on closing basis which is a bullish sign.

On the chart –

Gold had a big green week aided by a falling dollar index and key support levels being respected. Fundamentally the Fed outcome also helped the yellow metal as it turned the falling dollar index even weaker. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the $1345 mark suggests expansion in the range which it was caught in from last 3 weeks. If this is held then gold can move towards the resistance area of $1362. If this is taken out it can rise to fresh 52 week highs of $1374.

2. There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks and overall trend reverses, if it happens still it is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls were on a tear after 4 weeks of calmness as the supports were held which pressured the prices on the higher side. The low dollar index also favored the bulls who were able to break the range on the upside by having a good closing for the week suggesting a fresh 52 week high is on the offing. It was another big green bar which got created after a month nearly mirroring the amount of gains of the previous upmove. If this momentum is continued and if the fundamentals keep on supporting then gold can rise towards $1400 sooner than expected.

There is no bearish views as the range got broken on the upside which is favoring uptrend.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish as the range got broken on the upside suggesting more uptrend ahead.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1350 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1342.
Short trades are not the flavor but comes into the picture once $1345 breaks but still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: March 19-23

Gold had a fall of over $10 in a yet another range bound week. Price action has seemingly lost volatility and is confined within a strict 40$-45$ range. Last week gold found resistance at $1331 before retreating and falling to lows of $1309 where it found support of the 20 day moving average and bounced off. Technically the closing price is under the support of $1317 which suggests signs of bearishness which may lead it to test $1300 again. But if the 20 day moving average is respected then upmove cannot be ruled out but again it will be contained in the range.

On the chart –

Gold’s straight 3rd week of increasingly low volatility and sideways action offered little to the bulls and bears but it continued to register lower highs for 5th consecutive week. Resistances were respected so were the supports so it continues to be confusing but this week’s cut and closing suggests bias is more on the downside. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s holding onto the support of 20 day moving average and a bounce from there suggests buying still may be present at lower levels. If the supports are held and if gold manages to cross $1317 it can go higher till $1331. If this resistance is crossed it can move towards $1345.

2. Gold had a poor closing which suggests it might retest the support at $1308 again. If this is breached then it can fall towards $1297.

Bullish view – Bulls are waning out on week to week basis and this is not good for the price action to move ahead with force. Only consolation bulls can take home is they were able to protect the downside via the support of 20 day moving average which was respected and prices bounced from there. For bulls holding of $1300 is the most important to keep themselves in the fray, till it is held they have can have a fight back to push the prices higher.

Bearish view – Bears are clear winners as one by one supports are getting broken on weekly basis. Bears were able to defend the $1331 mark and added to the downside pressure by pushing the prices towards 20 day moving average but failed to breach that, still they won the week as they managed to get the closing under the support of $1317. To keep the momentum on the downside they must defend $1317 and try to erode the support area of $1308.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a bearish bias as the closing was not upto the mark and may lead to more downside. But on a broader picture gold is still confined in a range and it must break on either side for a decisive trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1320 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317.
Short trades comes into the picture once $1308 breaks for the target of $1297 with a stop loss placed above $1314.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: March 12-16

Gold had a rangebound week ending with a cut of only $1. Price action was contained in a range which was the support and the resistance behaving on expected lines. Volatility was there but it was also confined within the range as key fundamental changes pushed the prices lower from the highs primary factor being geopolitical tensions getting tempered down as U.S and North Korea agreed to have talks. But the confusion still prevails as neither of the support or resistance got breached on closing basis.

On the chart –

Gold’s sideways movement which tested both the support and resistance still doesn’t offer any clarity to either bulls or bears even though they had their piece of pie in the week’s volatility. News flow is all the more causing confusion since bond yields are on the critical juncture which can aggressively push the metal in one direction. In the given situation we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold held the support of $1317 and bounced back twice in the week, if this support holds then we can see uptrend resuming and once gold is able to move higher above $1331 it can rally till $1345. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1362. If this resistance area is conquered it can climb till $1374.

2. Again short trades are not the flavor but if $1331 is rejected it can fall towards $1317. If this support fails to hold it can fall back to $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls are in for a tough fight as they need to hold the supports which they were successful in the past week which allowed a move higher but couldn’t manage to cross the resistance at $1340s which led to a downfall yet again. For them to remain in the game they need to hold the support and to take charge they need to break the resistance at $1340s which will enable them to take the prices to fresh 52 week highs. Technically a bullish flag is in formation in daily time frame which could aid the bulls to keep the prices afloat above $1300.

Bearish view – Bears had a see-saw kind of week but ultimately they won even though it was through a cut of just $1. They had the upper hand in the week on account of erosion of prices lower from the support at $1317 but they failed to capitalize. In order to get the tide to turn red they need to break through $1317 decisively.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain sideways as no clear direction is visible since the price is cradled between the support and the resistance. Need a break on either side for a clear direction.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Mar 05-09

Gold had a roller coaster ride in the past week touching both support and resistance when it whipsawed nearly $40 but managed to close with a minor cut of $7. The 20 day moving average was once again respected in weekly timeframe and it gave the metal the boost it required to rebound from the lows of $1300s. Such a move from lows again was purely on technical grounds and a possible triple bottom has been formed suggesting the $1300 mark wont be easy to break.

On the chart –

Gold’s behavior was very confusing as both bulls and bears had their share but none managed to make a clear impact thus making way for more sideways and range-bound trade. There is a lot going on fundamentally which can impact gold on either direction as the news flow from U.S is quite influencing. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a bitter crash from the highs but managed to latch on to the 20 day moving average and rebounded from there. If the movement on upside remains strong and if its able to take out $1331 it can head towards $1345. If this is crossed it can rally to $1362. And if this mark is conquered it can rise towards $1374.

2. Short trades are not the flavor but if $1331 is rejected it can fall towards $1317. If this support fails to hold it can fall back to $1308 which is looking very less likely given the past week moves.

Bullish view – Bulls were rocked hard this time as the prices dropped from the highs of $1340 to $1300 without any retracement, but they fought back hard once the support of 20 day moving average paused the selling pressure and it reversed from there closing above the resistance at $1317 for the week. This happened for the third time when the bulls were able to defend $1300 thus keeping gold safely into their grip. If bulls manage to cross $1331 then they can make the situation to favor them and the upside momentum can resume.

Bearish view – Bears pummeled the bulls as they eroded nearly $40 without any respite but failed to keep up the pressure at the closing for the week suggesting they may be tired after such a big move. But if they manage to defend $1317 then ball would be in their court and the prices may see a drop but contained within $1300.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways as no clear direction is visible since the price is cradled between the support and the resistance. Need a break on either side for a clear direction.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 26-Mar 02

Gold had volatility back as it dropped nearly $20 for the week. It never came out of the woods once the support at $1345 was breached and it remained under pressure for the week but managed to close above the 10 day moving average which is considered to be bullish in the bearish scenario as the support at $1331 got broken on closing basis. Weekly closing suggests a pause in bullish momentum but respect of the 10 day moving average suggests otherwise.

On the chart –

Gold had a down week after a having big upside which may be treated as consolidation of such high gains in a short span. But this volatility is not favoring either bears or bulls, one week up then down suggests confusion but the trend will remain bullish until $1300-$1308 is held. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing was not upto the mark to favor bulls but the respect of 10 day moving average on close did support the ailing bulls. If this support is held and if gold manages to cross $1331 then it can head higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can climb to $1362. If this is conquered it can move towards $1374.

2. There is a possible short trade as the support at $1331 was breached but still its limited to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls lost some shine again as they failed to hold on to the support at $1331 on closing basis but the thing aiding them is the 10 day moving average which was yet again held and gold bounced from there. If this support is held and if $1331 is crossed bulls would win the majority again and can pave the way for upside again which may lead to a higher high and a higher close than it did in the week before.

Bearish view – Bears ousted the bulls during the close as they managed to close below the support of $1331 which may lead to further downside towards $1317.

On larger terms, Gold has turned neutral with a mild negative bias and the prices are expected to be volatile as there is lot of confusion.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 19-23

Gold soared nearly $50 in the last week posting 52 week high gains in a given week before settling for gains above $30. Such a move was anticipated given the technical pattern of double bottom which was formed at $1307. Higher than expected Inflation data of America fueled the yellow metal’s gains which moved nearly vertically after a knee jerk reaction of a minor fall due to the rise in Dollar Index. Gold was, is, and will always remain a hedge for inflation and its move was clearly related to the data on fundamental grounds. This weekly move suggests gold remains in a strong bull trend.

On the chart –

Gold prices surged to highs of $1360s which was earlier created in this year facing a resistance for the week there after bouncing off the 10 day moving average. Gold held on the key support of $1308 and moved higher suggesting a bottom formation is in play at $1300. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold flew higher to the highs of $1360s where it faced resistance and declined towards its support. If this support is held then gold can move back higher to $1362. If this is crossed it can head towards $1374. If this 52 week high is conquered it can move north to new 52 week high at $1386.

2. There are no short trades unless the support is breached and if broken the downside is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls emerged a clear winner as they posted 52 week high weekly gains after 2 weeks of negative return which may be considered as consolidation. As $1308 was held bulls got the ammunition to push the prices higher and this time they pushed it very high climbing multiple resistances at one go before stopping at the earlier highs at $1360s. Both technically and fundamentally the data supported this bullish move. If this trend remains then $1400 is on the horizon sooner than thought off.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold continues to be in a strong bullish grip and prices are expected to be sideways to higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1356 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1386.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Feb 12-16

Gold again slipped in a volatile trade as it kept on with the volatility in equities which may be the cause of the fall but it certainly differs from general outlook of gold being a safe haven in such times. Gold had a swing of $40 which tested both the support and the resistance before settling in for a cut of nearly $20 for the week. Such a reaction of yellow metal gives weak signals for the prices ahead but again it held on to the 10 day moving average and surged higher.

On the chart –

Gold had a volatile week giving opportunities to both bulls and bears but ended up favoring the bears yet again for the second consecutive week. Gold held on the key support of $1308 in the $1300s which must be held for the prices to move up again. We have 2 scenarios –

1. As gold held the support it bounced back in the last week, if this is held then gold can move higher to $1317. If this point is crossed then it can go higher to $1331. If this resistance area is conquered then it can move towards $1345.

2. There are no short trades unless the support is breached and if broken the downside is limited to $1297.

Bullish view – Bulls lost the party again but were able to held on to the key support of $1308 in the $1300s which can help them to lead the surge again. The week started off in good fortune for the bulls as they climbed to $1345 before the steam was lost and it toppled lower to test the support at $1308. For bulls to remain in the game $1308 must hold and if held we can see the prices reversing the 2 week weakness.

Bearish view – Gold broke through the support of $1317 and closed below it suggesting weakness in the demand of yellow metal. If the price falls below the support of $1308 it can go lower towards $1297 which is a key decisive point for the metal.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1320 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317.
There are no short trades unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.

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