Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 15-19

Gold continued its uptrend rising more than $15 in the week broadly on account of hedging in risk management as the equity markets are extremely overbought and are in huge risk of a potential global meltdown. Price tested its support at $1308 before surging higher to 4 month highs. Geo political tensions are also catering to the demand of yellow metal though it is near its lowest compared to previous weeks. Once gold broke out above $1331 there was no returning back and its expected to rise higher to its 52 week highs and maybe register a fresh one too in coming days/weeks.

On the chart –

Gold’s upward momentum gathered steam once it tested support at $1308. It was a fifth consecutive weekly gain for the yellow metal and also registered a gain of $100 from the lows. Clearly, gold looks to keep on mounting gains as risk of equity meltdown is increasing every passing day. Now the key support for continued uptrend can be shifted from $1308 to $1317. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s movement suggests the demand is increasing even at higher levels which was not case when it had earlier registered the 52 weak high. If this momentum is continued, gold can head higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can rise to its 52 week highs of $1362. If this resistance is crossed then it can climb higher to $1374.

2. There are no short trades unless the trend is changed and supports are broken.

Bullish view – Bulls overpowered the bears when they tried to lower the price below the support of $1308 and took to prices to 4 month highs from there. Bulls were again on top of their game as they added to 5th straight weekly gains and this momentum seems to continue as technically and fundamentally gold demand and prices are looking to head higher. The chart suggests a rounding bottom/cup formation which should take the prices higher. This momentum is expected to continue and the prices should head higher towards $1350-$1360 area.

There is no bearish perspective until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains in a strong uptrend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1341 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Jan 08-12

Gold has been on a clear uptrend since mid Dec following the massive selloff which tested the key supports in sub $1230s. The metal saw renewed demand on account of a very weak US dollar index which is continuing its downtrend after the US Fed’s decision to hike the interest rate. Geo political tensions around the globe are also bolstering the safe haven demand. Once gold crossed its psychological barrier of $1300 it was only going higher. Closing above the support suggests more upside potential for the metal.

On the chart –

Gold has been on a tear rising nearly $90 in matter of 4 weeks broadly due to its asset class and low price compared to newly formed crypto currency asset class due to a giant rally in Bitcoin prices. Gold now looks to be in a bullish run following a long bearish cycle which lasted for more than 4 years. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold seems in a strong bull run, if the support at $1318 is held it can head higher to $1331 where it may find some selling. Once this price point is crossed it can rise to $1345. If this is taken out it can head to the highs of $1362.

2. There are no short trades as gold is in a clear uptrend.

Bullish view – Bulls are taking the party well into the new year with incremental gains seen as a clear head and shoulder pattern is seen on the weekly chart which suggests more upside. It seems the long awaited bull cycle has started and it should take the prices higher towards $1400 and beyond which is confirmed by the monthly chart which suggests a cup formation is in progress ending above $1400. Should the prices continue the uptrend from $1400 it can rally well into $1500 also in the current year itself. Current trend suggests more upside with targets of $1345-$1350.

There is no bearish view until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold is in a strong bullish trend with the prices expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1321 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1362.
There is no positional short trade unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1297.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 18-22

Gold gained nearly $8 in a volatile week of trade which was engulfed with important events like outcome of U.S Fed meet. The Fed raised the interest rate along the expected lines which was fully baked in the gold price and thus it rose after the announcement. This hike was fully factored in the last week’s price action thus a rebound was on the cards but the relief rally was paused at the 50 day moving average. Such a close still indicates no fresh direction as the price remains in cautious territory since it was unable to cross the moving average. Thing to look out for next week is the crucial tax reform bill and its implications if it gets passed or held back.

On the chart –

Gold had a relief rally rising nearly $8 in a volatile environment but failed to sustain above the crucial moving averages. This possibly can be still seen as negative and such bounces can be sold into, alternatively if it manages to hold above the averages then retracement to $1300 can begin again. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a positive week after falling badly as the support at $1248 was respected. If the support holds then gold can be seen rising to $1272. If this resistance is crossed then gold can rally to the next resistance area at $1284.

2. Gold had a relief rally but was stopped from crossing the 50 day moving average on closing basis thus still indicating bearishness in the mood. If its not allowed to cross then gold can slide back towards $1248. If this is broken then it can fall further towards $1235 levels.

Bullish view – Bulls were on the winning ways after getting hit hard in the previous week. Respect of the support at $1248 might give motivation to the bulls to drive the prices even higher in the coming week but it will be under scrutiny with big fundamentals again as in tax reforms bill to be discussed next week. Only hope for the bulls is the crossing and sustaining above the 50 day moving average and if they succeed then we might see higher prices.

Bearish view – Bears took a breather after largely eroding the price in the previous week. They tried to continue the downward trend but failed as fundamentals aided the bulls. But they should be happy as prices were not able to cross the resistance of 50 and 100 day moving averages which might suggest the upmove was just a relief rally and downtrend can continue if the support at $1248 is broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways and the prices are expected to move in the favor of the direction decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1265 for the targets of $1272 and $1284 with a stop loss placed below $1257.
Gold can be sold below $1254 for the targets of $1248 and $1235 with a stop loss placed above $1261.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 11-15

Gold saw a good correction after days of rangebound activity slipping nearly $30 for the week. Gold fell even lower towards $1244s breaking the support at $1248 but managed to close above it suggesting that this could act as an intermediate support. U.S tax reforms getting a green signal along with good weekly data pushed the metal to such lows. Gold is on the edge as never before since possibility of military conflict in Korean Peninsula is growing every passing day.

On the chart –

Gold broke through multiple supports falling nearly $30 but managed to close above the support of $1248. Such a fall could be possibly discounting the Fed’s activity next week. Gold has become sideways with movement to take place in any direction but it seems its has formed a short term base. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold saw a big correction after many weeks breaking technical supports as well as long term supports but held onto the support at $1248. If this is held it can head back higher to $1269. If this resistance is crossed then it can move to next supply area at $1284.

2. Gold fell hard taking out supports in a flash. If this downside momentum is to continue it can slide lower to $1235. If this support area is broken then it can further move lower to $1217.

Bullish view – Bulls took it on the chin as supports were unable to hold back the prices. But they can take consolation from the fact that the support at $1248 was respected and held even after it was breached. If bulls manage to hold this price point then its a move back into the greens.

Bearish view – Bears eroded the prices to lows of $1244 but failed to close below the support at $1248. They broke through an array of supports suggesting a change in mood of the investors when it comes to yellow metal. If this action is to continue then we might see more lower prices ahead.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways to bearish and the prices are expected to move in the favor of the direction.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1260 for the targets of $1269 and $1284 with a stop loss placed below $1248. Longer term target $1297.
Gold can be sold below $1244 for the targets of $1235 and $1217 with a stop loss placed above $1248.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Dec 04-08

Gold faced another down week in a rangebound trade hitting both the support and the resistance before ending with cuts of nearly $9. Such trades suggest confusion over the trajectory of the metal price with lack of news flow. But again the support was held and there seems to be some panic to begin concerning North Korea over its ability to hit U.S mainland with nuclear missiles which could aid the prices to move upwards.

On the chart –

Gold bounced between support and resistance showcasing confusion and lack of direction for the prices. If this continues it may go on trading in this range but the range expanded from $20 to $30 suggesting expansion which can happen on either side but preferably on the upside. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold rejected the top at $1297 second time and receded back to test the support which was held onto, generally the third attempt is successful so if the support is held then it may be able to cross the level in next attempt. If $1270 is held, gold can see upside till $1284 where it faces a cloud of sellers. If this is crossed then it can move higher till $1297. If this ever crucial resistance is crossed gold would break higher into $1300s to $1308.

2. There are no short trades unless support at $1270 is broken but again its limited to $1260 where the 50 day moving average might support the price.

Bullish view – Bulls lost the week but did not vanish, they were able to defend $1270 indicating buying at lower levels. Some respite for bulls may be coming from news flow from Korean peninsula which will definitely aid the prices to surge higher. If they are able to hold the supports the prices are expected to go higher in coming days/weeks.

There is no bearish view to support the downside as its very limited and only applicable if supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned sideways and the prices are expected to be rangebound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1297 and $1308 with a stop loss placed below $1270. Longer term target $1317.
There is no positional short trade unless $1270 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1260.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 27- Dec 01

Gold saw a cut of only $6 in a volatile trade in the holiday thinned week. Prices yet again moved in a band of $20 continuing its old trend but closed fairly high from the lows indicating buying at lower levels supported by a weak dollar index. Prices took support at the median of bollinger band at the close suggesting its not ready to give up previous week’s gains. Such a closing still favors the bulls and the prices are expected to go higher.

On the chart –

Gold’s closing above $1284 again after falling to the lows of $1277 suggests it has become a strong support for the metal in the short term. The weekly bar created indicates continued bullishness even though it steered away from $1290s. Another thing to note is a possible bullish flag formation in 30mins timeframe which is a strong indicator for the upside. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold closed above the support of $1284-85 which suggests continued upward momentum. If this support is held it can go higher till $1297. If this crucial resistance area is taken out it can move above $1300 to $1308. And if this is crossed it can head towards $1317 which is the next resistance on the chart.

2. There are no short trades still as supports are held. And if the support at $1284 is broken still the downside is limited to $1270-$1271.

Bullish view – Bulls fought hard driving the prices back above the support of $1284 after seeing a massive intraday fall that too on the first day of the week. Such a move from lows indicates buying at lower levels and signaling the metal is not ready for a fall yet thus oozing bullishness. Bulls won this week again. If this trend is to continue and the support is held the prices are expected to go higher.

There is no bearish view until supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains in the hands of the bulls and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1297 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1284. Longer term target $1334.
There is no positional short trade unless $1284 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1270.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 20-24

Gold had a breakout on the upside rising nearly $20 for the week which was on the anticipated lines. This upmove took out the past 3 week’s resistance at $1284-$1285 and also closed higher in the upper band of the bollinger band. Such a move was highly on the cards since technically gold had formed an ascending triangle pattern on weekly timeframe. On closing basis, gold closed significantly higher above the resistance at $1284 thus indicating fresh buying and deciding the trend for the metal prices. Gold now is back in the bullish tone, where prices are expected to go higher above the $1300 mark.

On the chart –

Gold’s spring board breakout suggests the directive move which it was lacking from past 3 weeks. Though it was unable to close higher above the resistance at $1297 but still managed to close above $1292 which is considered extremely bullish. Trending market suggests more upmove in gold in coming days. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold managed to break above the blockage at $1284-$1285 area, this suggests the upcoming move on the upside. If this resistance now a support holds gold is expected to go higher to $1297. If this triple top resistance is broken through it can rally above $1300 to $1308. And if this area is crossed it can head towards the next resistance at $1317 .

2. There are no short trades unless $1284 gives way and that also is limited to $1270-$1272 for the moment.

Bullish view – Bulls were on a rampage as they took out resistances and led the metal higher to the highs of $1297 which though resisted as its a very important resistance. Such a move in one direction after weeks of indecisiveness suggests more gains ahead. Clearly bulls were on a sweet song as price action supported every move ahead taking out bearishness from the mood. This trend is likely to stay as its a breakout and if it does then the prices are expected to go higher.

There is no bearish view unless supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1297 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1284. Longer term target $1334.
There is no positional short trade unless $1284 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1270.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 13-17

Gold continued its rangebound activity for 3rd straight week. Point to take away for this week is it closed above the crucial support of $1270-$1272 with minor gains of $5 after
see-sawing in the range of $23. Moves in the week were dictated broadly by America’s weekly data. On closing basis, gold yet again remained trapped inbetween the black and red trendlines but created a higher high and a higher low which is definitely considered positive for the metal prices. Gold continues to remain directionless as rangebound action kept it from breaking either support or resistance.

On the chart –

Another sideways week for the yellow metal as the prices were not able to break through support or resistance on closing basis. This continued trend of rejecting both the marks is making the prices ready for a spring board kind of move on either direction. Gold remains split between the bulls and the bears, we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the crucial area of $1270-$1272 suggests metal might be on the verge of breaking on the upside. If this happens prices can move towards $1284 again. If this brief resistance is broken, it can head higher to the next resistance at $1297.

2. Prices fell from the highs to the support area, this suggests selling at higher levels. If the support area is broken prices can fall back to test the bottom at $1261. If this strong support is broken, gold can slide further to $1248.

Bullish view – Prices came back in the grip of bulls who reigned though-out the week but were unable to capitalize as prices fell back towards the support. But the key take away is the support was held and if it keeps intact bulls will be able to break the $1284 on closing basis. If this trend is maintained the prices are expected to go higher.

Bearish view- Bears were losing steam as price action was favoring the bulls. But they managed to defend the resistance at $1284 though failed to drag the prices lower from $1270-$1272 area. This suggests slackening in bearishness as the prices were not able to fall lower. To keep the bear momentum intact $1261 must be broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 06-10

Gold remained rangebound in a band of $20 testing both support and resistance but closed with a minor cut of $5 ending below the crucial $1270-$1272 zone. Intra-week moves were data driven and thus traded in the range which was a bit volatile. Closing basis, gold closed below the support area but still managed to remain between the trendlines thus signaling its not over for bulls yet even if the support has given way. Again gold remains directionless as neither the support or the resistance were broken keeping both bulls and bears mostly fairly placed in the game.

On the chart –

Gold remained sideways trading in a set band, this doesnt open up and directive moves yet making the past week’s trade more meaningless. Continued rejection of both the resistance and support makes the metal ready for move on either direction with a force in coming days/weeks. Gold is still split between the bulls and the bears, we have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s move from sub $1270s to test its resistance at $1284 signals there is still a pressure for the metal to head higher if the fundamentals support. If this is to continue gold can head higher to $1284. If this resistance is taken out gold can move to its crucial point in the $1200s to $1297.

2. Gold’s slid down from the support area opening up some activity for the bears. If this trend continues gold can further move lower to test the bottom at $1261. If this bottom is taken out it can slide lower to $1248.

Bullish view – Gold remained in the range but a point to notice was it shortened from the downside which is a good sign for the bulls. Higher lows always aid the prices moving ahead. Even if the $1270s gave way it is still not over for the bulls as they defended the support in $1260s once again. This trend should make the prices go higher.

Bearish view – Gold slid below the support which must give bears some ammunition to erode the prices to test the lows at $1261 again. The move towards the lows and then closing higher suggests a 3rd failed attempt to break the support at $1261. For bears to remain active gold must break the support at $1261.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 30- Nov 03

Gold fell nearly $20 in the past week before settling for cuts of under $10. This was largely on the anticipated lines since there was no trigger for the gold prices to change course. The recovery from $1262s yet again shows buying at lower levels and it provides an outside chance for the bulls to recoup the losses. There is a big event in America next week with regards to Fed body which will drive the prices on either direction. Gold is still directionless as it mirrored the weekly move made earlier. There is a possibility that a double bottom or a cup and handle pattern has been formed which suggests cautious bullishness.

In the chart –

Gold fell back much lower to retest the bottom made at $1261. It closed significantly higher mirroring the move it made 2 weeks before. Such a bounce back from lows again suggests the yellow metal might be close to bottoming out or has bottomed out. Though gold is still split between the 2 parties but bullishness is creeping in the sight. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s recovery from lows suggests prices are finding buying at lower levels and are not ready to collapse yet. If this trend continues gold can head higher to $1284 once the support at $1271 is held upon. And if the prices takeout this resistance it can even climb higher to $1297 which is a strong decisive point on the chart.

2. Gold continued its downtrend and added to the losses after rejecting the resistance at $1280s. If this is to be followed gold can fall to test $1261 yet again. If this support is breached on the 3rd attempt gold can further slide to the supports at $1248.

Bullish view – Bulls were out of the picture but made their mark as they helped the prices go higher above the support at $1271 on the closing basis from the lows of $1261s. This was a mirrored move and suggests a bullish tone in the prices going ahead. For the prices to rise the support must hold.

Bearish view – Bears kept eroding the price to the lows of $1262s but failed to close below the support at $1271. This was a 2nd failed attempt which suggests their run might be coming to an end. To keep the bearishness intact price must break the support at $1261-$1263 which will open up further lows.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a mild positive bias. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

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