Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 20-24

Gold had a breakout on the upside rising nearly $20 for the week which was on the anticipated lines. This upmove took out the past 3 week’s resistance at $1284-$1285 and also closed higher in the upper band of the bollinger band. Such a move was highly on the cards since technically gold had formed an ascending triangle pattern on weekly timeframe. On closing basis, gold closed significantly higher above the resistance at $1284 thus indicating fresh buying and deciding the trend for the metal prices. Gold now is back in the bullish tone, where prices are expected to go higher above the $1300 mark.

On the chart –

Gold’s spring board breakout suggests the directive move which it was lacking from past 3 weeks. Though it was unable to close higher above the resistance at $1297 but still managed to close above $1292 which is considered extremely bullish. Trending market suggests more upmove in gold in coming days. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold managed to break above the blockage at $1284-$1285 area, this suggests the upcoming move on the upside. If this resistance now a support holds gold is expected to go higher to $1297. If this triple top resistance is broken through it can rally above $1300 to $1308. And if this area is crossed it can head towards the next resistance at $1317 .

2. There are no short trades unless $1284 gives way and that also is limited to $1270-$1272 for the moment.

Bullish view – Bulls were on a rampage as they took out resistances and led the metal higher to the highs of $1297 which though resisted as its a very important resistance. Such a move in one direction after weeks of indecisiveness suggests more gains ahead. Clearly bulls were on a sweet song as price action supported every move ahead taking out bearishness from the mood. This trend is likely to stay as its a breakout and if it does then the prices are expected to go higher.

There is no bearish view unless supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1297 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1284. Longer term target $1334.
There is no positional short trade unless $1284 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1270.

gold weekly 34

Advertisements

Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 13-17

Gold continued its rangebound activity for 3rd straight week. Point to take away for this week is it closed above the crucial support of $1270-$1272 with minor gains of $5 after
see-sawing in the range of $23. Moves in the week were dictated broadly by America’s weekly data. On closing basis, gold yet again remained trapped inbetween the black and red trendlines but created a higher high and a higher low which is definitely considered positive for the metal prices. Gold continues to remain directionless as rangebound action kept it from breaking either support or resistance.

On the chart –

Another sideways week for the yellow metal as the prices were not able to break through support or resistance on closing basis. This continued trend of rejecting both the marks is making the prices ready for a spring board kind of move on either direction. Gold remains split between the bulls and the bears, we have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the crucial area of $1270-$1272 suggests metal might be on the verge of breaking on the upside. If this happens prices can move towards $1284 again. If this brief resistance is broken, it can head higher to the next resistance at $1297.

2. Prices fell from the highs to the support area, this suggests selling at higher levels. If the support area is broken prices can fall back to test the bottom at $1261. If this strong support is broken, gold can slide further to $1248.

Bullish view – Prices came back in the grip of bulls who reigned though-out the week but were unable to capitalize as prices fell back towards the support. But the key take away is the support was held and if it keeps intact bulls will be able to break the $1284 on closing basis. If this trend is maintained the prices are expected to go higher.

Bearish view- Bears were losing steam as price action was favoring the bulls. But they managed to defend the resistance at $1284 though failed to drag the prices lower from $1270-$1272 area. This suggests slackening in bearishness as the prices were not able to fall lower. To keep the bear momentum intact $1261 must be broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

gold weekly 33

Gold’s weekly outlook: Nov 06-10

Gold remained rangebound in a band of $20 testing both support and resistance but closed with a minor cut of $5 ending below the crucial $1270-$1272 zone. Intra-week moves were data driven and thus traded in the range which was a bit volatile. Closing basis, gold closed below the support area but still managed to remain between the trendlines thus signaling its not over for bulls yet even if the support has given way. Again gold remains directionless as neither the support or the resistance were broken keeping both bulls and bears mostly fairly placed in the game.

On the chart –

Gold remained sideways trading in a set band, this doesnt open up and directive moves yet making the past week’s trade more meaningless. Continued rejection of both the resistance and support makes the metal ready for move on either direction with a force in coming days/weeks. Gold is still split between the bulls and the bears, we have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s move from sub $1270s to test its resistance at $1284 signals there is still a pressure for the metal to head higher if the fundamentals support. If this is to continue gold can head higher to $1284. If this resistance is taken out gold can move to its crucial point in the $1200s to $1297.

2. Gold’s slid down from the support area opening up some activity for the bears. If this trend continues gold can further move lower to test the bottom at $1261. If this bottom is taken out it can slide lower to $1248.

Bullish view – Gold remained in the range but a point to notice was it shortened from the downside which is a good sign for the bulls. Higher lows always aid the prices moving ahead. Even if the $1270s gave way it is still not over for the bulls as they defended the support in $1260s once again. This trend should make the prices go higher.

Bearish view – Gold slid below the support which must give bears some ammunition to erode the prices to test the lows at $1261 again. The move towards the lows and then closing higher suggests a 3rd failed attempt to break the support at $1261. For bears to remain active gold must break the support at $1261.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

gold weekly 32

Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 30- Nov 03

Gold fell nearly $20 in the past week before settling for cuts of under $10. This was largely on the anticipated lines since there was no trigger for the gold prices to change course. The recovery from $1262s yet again shows buying at lower levels and it provides an outside chance for the bulls to recoup the losses. There is a big event in America next week with regards to Fed body which will drive the prices on either direction. Gold is still directionless as it mirrored the weekly move made earlier. There is a possibility that a double bottom or a cup and handle pattern has been formed which suggests cautious bullishness.

In the chart –

Gold fell back much lower to retest the bottom made at $1261. It closed significantly higher mirroring the move it made 2 weeks before. Such a bounce back from lows again suggests the yellow metal might be close to bottoming out or has bottomed out. Though gold is still split between the 2 parties but bullishness is creeping in the sight. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s recovery from lows suggests prices are finding buying at lower levels and are not ready to collapse yet. If this trend continues gold can head higher to $1284 once the support at $1271 is held upon. And if the prices takeout this resistance it can even climb higher to $1297 which is a strong decisive point on the chart.

2. Gold continued its downtrend and added to the losses after rejecting the resistance at $1280s. If this is to be followed gold can fall to test $1261 yet again. If this support is breached on the 3rd attempt gold can further slide to the supports at $1248.

Bullish view – Bulls were out of the picture but made their mark as they helped the prices go higher above the support at $1271 on the closing basis from the lows of $1261s. This was a mirrored move and suggests a bullish tone in the prices going ahead. For the prices to rise the support must hold.

Bearish view – Bears kept eroding the price to the lows of $1262s but failed to close below the support at $1271. This was a 2nd failed attempt which suggests their run might be coming to an end. To keep the bearishness intact price must break the support at $1261-$1263 which will open up further lows.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a mild positive bias. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1278 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1268.
Gold can be sold below $1268 for the targets of $1261 and $1248 with a stop loss placed above $1278.

gold weekly 31

Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 23-27

Gold fell back below $1300 and headed south towards the support area of $1279-$1281 as the sharp breakout above $1300 was a false one which attracted more short positions than long also supported by upmove in the dollar index which looks to have bottomed out. This poses caution to gold prices as a slight uptick in dollar index creates much impact on the yellow metal on the downside. Gold is currently directionless with prices expected to move sideways unless a course is chosen.

On the chart –

Gold erased all the gains of the previous week ending from where it had started. This U-turn from $1300 was account of a stronger dollar index and now less impacting Korean peninsula news flow. Gold is split between bulls and bears but has a slightly negative approach when it comes to prices. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1279-$1281 area, and if this is held gold can move higher which is uncertain since there is nothing fundamental to support the rise in prices. If the support is held, gold can rise to $1291. If this is crossed it can head higher to the very crucial area of $1297 which is a decider for further price action. And if this is taken out, prices can head north to $1317.

2. Gold lost the $1300 mark with ease which certainly sounds bearish. If the current trend prevails gold can fall to $1271 where gold may find some support. If this support is broken it can head back lower to $1261 where it had bottomed out. There is a chance gold might see further slide if $1261 is breached.

Bullish view – Only thing giving support to bulls is the price took support at $1279-$1281 area and rebounded from lows. Bullishness was erased by incremental fall in prices on daily basis. The way out for bulls is they need to hold this support to keep the green in gold prices. Gold will remain sideways unless a path is chosen.

Bearish view – Bears returned to the party with a flair as they kept eroding the prices from $1300 to the lows of $1280. Such price action definitely suggests confusion where one week is up and other down. Bears successfully broke through multiple supports signaling lack of buying and a change in trend. With such movement, prices may fall further to retest the bottom it created 2 weeks before.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a negative bias. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1284 for the targets of $1291 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1271. Longer term target $1317.
Gold can be sold under $1279 for the targets of $1271 and $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1291.

gold weekly 30

Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 16-20

Gold made a comeback rising nearly $30 in the week on account of poor data yet again coming from America. Such a move was on anticipated lines as gold had made a bottom in the previous week. With a close above $1300 it strengthens the bullish picture for the prices. Gold crossed a key resistance at $1297 in one go which signals more up-move ahead.

On the chart –

Gold climbed back above the crucial $1300 mark on the backing of good fundamentals which supported the rise in the price. Though such a move was technically expected to happen and the fundamentals just confirmed it. Gold is in good bullish grip and the prices are expected to keep the rising trend intact. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s re-entry into $1300 suggests more activity for the bulls and if this trend continues which is extremely likely, gold can head higher to $1307. If this price point is taken out it can further rise to $1317 which is a resistance area. If this area is crossed gold can climb to $1334 which had earlier acted as a good support/resistance.

2. There are no short trades as gold has made a breakout again above $1300. Such positional trades can become active only if $1281 is broken.

Bullish view – Bulls were back in action after 4 weeks of slumber. They reconquered the crucial $1300 which clearly suggests more upside and maybe the metal can make a fresh 52 week high. Such big moves which takes out multiple resistances/supports are trend makers and in this case it is a strong bullish wave surging from the lows the metal had made. With the prices now in bullish trend, gold is expected to head higher and maybe create a new 52 week high in coming days/weeks.

There is no bearish perspective unless the trend is reversed.

On larger terms, Gold remains bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, Gold can be bought above $1305 for the targets of $1307 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1294. Longer term target $1334.
There is no positional short trade available.

gold weekly 29

Gold’s weekly outlook: Oct 09-13

Gold saw yet another week of decline which created a low exactly 100 points from the high the metal made in the past month. The yellow metal was under pressure from the start of the week and grind-ed lower to make a startling comeback on the last day of the week as the data from America was poorer than expected. The rise from the lows does suggest bottoming out and a reversal in the direction of the prices which is also technically confirmed by bollinger bands as the prices closed higher above the median.

On the chart-

Gold had a fall of $20 on account of factors which diluted the demand in the first 4 days of the week but prices staged a comeback to close lower by only $8 on account of data releases from America. This clearly suggests the correction might be over and a fresh upmove has started. Gold technically now becomes bullish after 4 weeks of bearishness. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s recovery from the lows does ring bullish bells and if this uptrend is maintained gold can head higher to $1284 which is an important point. If the metal crosses this point it can further rise to $1297 which is a good resistance. If this resistance is surpassed gold can climb to $1317 where the metal may find yet another resistance.

2. Gold has been in a correction for 4 straight weeks and the price action on the last day of the week does not favor the bears now. Gold can continue its declining trend only if $1261 is breached which is less likely.

Bullish view – Bulls were out of the picture until the last day of the week where they made their footing strong as the prices recovered over $12 from the lows. Bulls made a stellar comeback after 4 weeks of no activity and are here to stay as the price movement suggests. Such a move is considered extremely bullish and it signals trend reversal. With prices now in bullish grip after few weeks gold is expected to rise back above $1300 again.

There is no bearish perspective unless support is broken.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish and the prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1279 for the targets of $1284 and $1297 with a stop loss placed below $1269. Longer term target $1317.
There are no short trades but still gold can be sold under $1272 for the target of $1261 with a stop loss placed above $1284.

gold weekly 28

Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 25-29

Gold had a continued corrective move from the highs of $1360s shedding over $20 yet again for the week closing above the key support of $1297. This fall was on account of a Hawkish Fed outcome which insisted on a 3rd hike later in the year regardless of how the economy is shaping up. Once the crucial $1300 was breached gold slid lower to its supports in $1290s but recovered as buying was clearly visible at low levels. After 2 big corrective weeks gold looks to take support at its very key support zone of $1296-$1298 and if this is held gold might restart its upward journey.

On the chart-

Gold fell more than $20 broadly due to the Fed outcome and it was supported technically as it took support at 10 day moving average on the closing basis. Gold’s closing above its support after falling much lower suggests bottoming out or the correction coming to an end. Gold technically still remains bullish till it holds the $1296-$1298 area. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold had a decent correction and a close above the support suggests buying at lower levels. If this sentiment is worked upon gold can rise to $1307 which is a brief stoppage point. If this point is crossed it may further add gains to go higher to $1317 which is a fine resistance on the chart. If this resistance area is taken out gold might head even higher till $1331.

2. Short trades become active once gold breaks its support, if this happens gold can slide lower to $1280 which acts as a support. If this is broken down gold can head south towards $1269 which is a good support on the chart.

Bullish view – It was a similar behavior by the bulls like in the past week as they came alive to give a close above the support area. Bulls were again seen pretty much active once the prices crumbled from the supports. Such a close is regarded as a bullish sign, and it seems correction might be coming to an end with fundamentals still strongly favoring the bulls. Prices are expected to head higher deeper into the $1300s if the support is held.

Bearish view – Bears eroded over $50 in a matter of 14 days, they were successful to breach the crucial support area of $1296-$1298 but failed to keep on the pressure. If this sentiment of corrective price movement remains gold might slide lower towards its supports though it seems less likely since fundamentals are not backing the bears.

On larger terms, gold remains neutral with mild positive bias as the supports were held. Prices are expected to be range bound unless a direction is decided.

Possible trades are on both sides, Gold can be bought above $1304 for the targets of $1307 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1294. Longer term target $1331.
Gold can be sold under $1294 for the targets of $1280 and $1269 with a stop loss placed above $1304.

gold weekly 27

Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 18-22

Gold saw a correction of over $16 which was ensued with a gap down opening on account of less than expected impact of hurricane Irma and also tensions in Korean Peninsula saw some easing. A gap down below the crucial support of $1342 firmed selling as gold was unable to recover the opening loss. Upbeat data from America also created sluggishness in gold prices causing them to fall more. Gold saw a rise at the end of the week on account of yet another missile flying out from Korean Peninsula but was unable to cling onto the gains as bears used this opportunity to further add short positions. Gold still remains in bullish grip as support of $1317 was not broken on closing basis which may trigger buying yet again.

On the chart –

Gold saw incremental selling after the large gap down below the support of $1342 which tested the key support at $1317 on the downside as expected but closed above it. Such a closing may again lead to gains and a possible retest of $1342 if the prices hold above $1317. Technically gold continues to remain bullish till $1300 holds and sideways movement is expected until $1342 is taken out. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold took support at $1317 and bounced back which suggests buying at lower levels. If such strength remains gold may rise back to the key level of $1342 which now acts as a resistance. If this level is taken out gold may go higher to $1356. Now if this price point is crossed gold may climb higher to $1375 where it will complete the pattern and is a very good resistance on the chart.

2. There are no short trades yet again unless support of $1317 is broken. If this support is broken then gold may fall to $1306.

Bullish view – Bulls took a breather as price action was commanded by the bears. Though bulls raged back into the game when they didn’t allow the support at $1317 to be broken on closing basis. Such a move still breathes bullishness in prices. Prices are expected to yet again test $1342 if the support is held, bulls are fundamentally favored due to global tensions regarding Korean peninsula failing to fade out rather its escalating with every passing day.

There is no bearish perspective unless support is broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways to bullish and the prices are expected to trade in a range.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1331 for the targets of $1342 and $1356 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1375.
Gold can be sold below $1317 for the target of $1306 with a stop loss placed above $1331.

gold weekly 26

Gold’s weekly outlook: Sept 11-15

Gold continued its upward journey as it gained over $10 in a volatile week amid worries over another hurricane heading onto American soil. Gold surged over $30 from the lows but failed to sustain before closing with less gains when compared to the upsurge. A gap up in the start of the week kept the rising trend intact which was also aided by dismal data coming from America. This uptick took out the resistance at $1342 which suggests more positive momentum for the metal and continuation till $1375 to form the cup is largely expected.

On the chart –

Gold kept on adding to the gains with a gap up which was followed by more incremental buying pushing the prices to 1 yr highs. The gap up above $1340 now suggests that the stops for the long trade is shifted to this level from $1317. Technically it seems the cup formation is expected to complete in coming days/weeks and the prices are expected to achieve new highs. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the resistance of $1342 suggests more upside. With this momentum gold can rise further to $1356 which failed to hold in the past week. If this level is crossed gold can move higher to $1375 where the cup formation ends and it will act as a great resistance. Now if this resistance area is crossed gold can see more upside to highs of $1391 which is less likely until more positive news for gold comes.

2. Again there are no short trades available unless $1342 breaks down but still the downside is limited to $1331 which now acts as a new good support. If this level gives way gold can fall to $1317.

Bullish view – Bulls were again in a party mood as they eroded key resistances one at $1342 and other at $1356 in the week. Even if they failed to hold above the $1356 mark the closing over $1342 keeps them strongly in the game and another run towards $1375 is not ruled out. Bulls upped their game with the gap up and its sustained trend for the week which now suggests $1342 becomes a good support. Trend and fundamentals remain with the bulls and the prices are expected to rise further.

There is no bearish perspective to the metal unless key supports are broken.

On larger terms, Gold remains in firm bullish grip with the prices expected to create fresh highs

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on the long side, Gold can be bought above $1352 for the targets of $1356 and $1375 with the stop loss placed below $1342. Longer term target $1391.
There are no short trades available still gold can be sold under $1342 for targets of $1331 and $1317 with a stop loss placed above $1356.

gold weekly 25