Gold’s weekly outlook: May 21-25

Gold finally broke the trading range it had been into from many weeks on the downside as it slid past $1300 comfortably and posted a nearly $20 weekly loss. This kind of movement was getting over-due and a fatigue was kind of setting in when the price action was taken into account. Fundamentally the events did not favor the rising prices thus allowing it to breach the crucial $1300 mark on the way down. Gold might find its feet soon as big downside even after the range expansion is not on the cards given the global factors which might keep the prices buoyed.

On the chart –

Gold’s breakdown suggests temporarily the bulls have gone in for a pause again. Support levels were taken out without much of a hassle though gold found support at lower and old support areas. Going back above $1300 might take some extra push from the bulls. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold tested it support at $1285 and bounced back, if this is held it may try to peg back towards $1295. If this is crossed it can go higher till $1308. If this is also crossed it can rally till $1317. Though long trades are not the favorites as range has broken on the downside.

2. Gold’s closing below the $1300 and its support level indicates more pain. This offers good opportunity for short trades which went missing from past many weeks. If $1295 is held it can fall lower to $1281. If this is breached it can have a dash towards the channel support at $1265.

Bullish view – There is some hope for the bulls as the prices bounced off from the 38.2 Fib level which also may act as a strong support going forward. If this is held then a rally back towards $1300 and higher cannot be ruled out. But in order to turn bullish prices need to conquer $1300 back or need to take support at channel lows or Fib retracement levels.

Bearish view – Bears were very ferocious this time as they eroded the critical $1300 mark by a good margin and that too on the closing basis. Such a close denotes more downside as key supports were breached. For bears, its a their time now after weeks of range bound activity as price action clearly favors them. For bears to continue pilling up the pressure they must not allow $1300 to be crossed.

On the larger terms, Gold has broken the range on the downside and more negativity is on the cards.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1298 for the targets of $1308 and $1317 with a stop loss placed below $1290.
Gold can be sold under $1288 for the targets of $1281 and $1265.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 14-18

Gold withstood another volatile week where the prices see-sawed over $20 but the crucial $1300 mark was respected again showing great strength at lower levels. In such a wild week gold managed to add on to minor gains of just over $2 which is quite respectable given the fundamentals which are doing rounds around the globe. Gold pulled back into its trading range as depicted by trend-lines again on closing basis suggesting that the bullish trend remains intact.

On the chart –

Gold’s closing above the support level again oozes bullish sentiment which can further take the prices back above the decisive mark of $1331 and higher. Fundamentally gold has lots to take direction from and possibly the way is on the upside as the lows have been tested over 3 times and prices have bounced back strongly. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1317 suggests more upside ahead, if this is held it can go till $1331. If this trend deciding point is crossed it can rally till $1345. If this crossed it can move higher to the resistance zone at $1362.

2. There are no short trades emerging as the support was held. If $1317 breaks still the fall is limited to $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls again emerged on the top regardless of hammering they took in the first half of the week as they managed to get a higher closing and that too above the support of $1317. Once again the $1300 mark was defended which should muster enough motivation for the bulls to lead the way as both technically and fundamentally they are supported quite firmly. If the support levels are held we should see the prices back above $1345 mark sooner as the fall from highs was steep so similarly the rise can match that magnitude.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold still remains rangebound struck in its trading range of $1300-$1370. Need a breakout on either side to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1324 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317. Longer term target $1362.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: May 07-11

Gold had another tough week where it opened gap down over $10 and never really managed to go higher to fill the gap fully ending with cuts of over $5. Price action was mixed throughout the week where the metal tested the crucial support of the key $1300 mark and bounced back to close the week higher way above the support level of $1308. Technically a probable triple bottom seems to be in place on the weekly time frame which signifies a bottom may have formed in last week’s bearish dash towards the lows. But all said, the trading range of $1300-$1370 remains intact with the lower part of the range been tested suggesting again, we shall remain in it for sometime more and a breakout is yet again expected on the upside of the range.

On the chart –

Gold tested the solidarity of the $1300 mark and it was held firmly with buying emerging to push the prices higher back above the support and into the range as depicted by the trendlines. Such a pullback does ooze out bullishness with patterns giving more push the uptrend. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s rally from the lows suggest $1300 is not gonna go that easily and now that it has been tested again all the more probability of going higher has increased dramatically. If the support is held it can rise towards $1317. If this is crossed it can rally to its break even point at $1331. If this resistance area is crossed it can move towards $1345.

2. There are no short trades yet as the trading range was respected and supports held. Downside seems to remain capped at $1300 but if it breaks $1296 cannot be ruled out.

Bullish view – Bulls won this week even though it ended with cuts as they were able to defend the crucial $1300 mark yet again. Such price action which was illustrated in the week rings a bullish bell rather than a skeptical tone. The trading range was respected along with the supports should give bulls enough ammunition to take the prices higher.

Next 2 weeks are crucial for the metal as a key fundamental event is slated to take place and it will decide the fate of the gold.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold continues to remain rangebound struck in the trading range with price action cradled between $1300-$1370. Need a breakout on either side to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1314 for the targets of $1317 and $1331 with a stop loss placed below $1308. Longer term target $1345.
There are no short trades unless $1308 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1300-$1296.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 30 – May 04

Gold suffered with cuts of over $13 in past week in yet another rangebound trade where supports and resistances where respected. Gold was in a sell mode from the time it started the trade as the open was its high for the week and it trended lower towards the support area at $1317 from where it trimmed back some of the losses to close fairly higher. But again the story remains the same since the walls of the range was not disturbed and once again the 20 day moving average was held upon which suggests the gold is in a clear uptrend as even if it goes down it finds supports to latch on to and moves back higher.

On the chart –

Gold’s taking support at $1317 and bouncing back suggests there is buying at lower levels which will not allow the price to erode much while keeping the uptrend buoyant. This time both the support and the 20 day moving average was respected which definitely shows strength of bulls. Fundamentally gold is expected to trade higher given the situations around the globe. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold once again latched on to the support and turned back higher. If the support is held and the break even point of $1331 is crossed it can rise back towards $1345. If this is taken out it can rally towards $1362. And if this resistance zone is conquered it can go higher till $1374.

2. Short trades continues to remain dull and nullified until the supports are held. If $1317 is taken down it can fall further towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls must take heart from the price action which showed supports being held strongly with buying emerging at lower levels. Bulls were out of the picture nearly whole of the week but came to spotlight once the price fell towards the support and they managed to take it higher from there on closing basis. Such respecting of levels and supports must be seen as a casing point for the bullish trend to remain intact in a sideways and a rangebound market with wide anticipations of a breakout on the upside of the band.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold remains rangebound with price action cradled between $1300-$1370 range. Need a breakout on either side to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 23-27

Gold simmered and lost more than $10 in yet another rangebound week where both the marks – supports and resistances were held thus once again giving no clue on which side the break possibly could be. The moves were broadly on fundamental pressures which created opportunities for both bull and bear and this is now been happening for several weeks. Gold’s closing above the support yet again suggests the metal is in a grinding uptrend on larger picture. The yellow metal market has become a haven for traders whilst investors can just stick around patiently.

On the chart –

Gold lost over $10 in a strict ranged market where the highs are getting sold into aggressively. But all in all the metal is taking support every week which doesn’t hand it into the bearish grip. Fundamental pressures will remain even if North Korean crisis may have gone cold thus positioning the metal as a object for ranged volatility. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the support suggests the uptrend is not yet broken even if the highs are getting sold into. If the supports are held then it can climb till $1345. If this is crossed it can rise till $1362. If this big resistance area which it is acting as is conquered it can rally till $1374.

2. Short trades again remain muted in the given circumstance but if $1331 breaks it can slide to its support at $1317. And if this fails to hold it can fall towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls lost the way in the middle of the week as they fell prey in the hands of bears and lost the gains created along with a negative return for the week of over $10. But bulls are not out yet as once again the support was clinched onto. Bulls are slowly progressing in the weekly timeframe with see-saw moves which can help to ascertain that the metal is poised for a upside breakout soon.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On the larger terms, Gold is rangebound with price action between $1300-$1370 bracket. Need a breakout to get a clear signal of the trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 16-20

Gold had another big range week having moved nearly $40 from the lows to the highs. In such a volatile week gold managed to post decent gains of nearly $10 which was broadly on account of fundamentals surrounding the trade war and geopolitical tensions involving Syria this time. Supports were held whilst the stiff resistances also played their part not allowing a large percentage gain. The momentum seems to keep pace with the bullish aura which had set in when $1300 was crossed.

On the chart –

Gold had a big week with large swings on the upside but couldn’t hang on to the gains it created but managed to keep the bar green with a modest $10 rise compared to rise seen in the week. With the 20 day moving average being respected almost every week the bullishness is getting strengthened and it is expected to head higher. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the support suggests more upside may be on the way. If the support is held it can head higher to $1362. If this is crossed it can rise to $1374. And if this is conquered it can register a new 52 week high at $1392.

2. There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, if it happens still it is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls had a great outing cherishing gains of more than $35 in the week but failed to capitalize on it, still they managed to have a green week and added another $10 on the upside. A close above the support of $1345 can be assumed to add more power to the bullish tone. Fundamentals are currently favoring the bulls which might take the price to $1400 sooner than imagined. Another green week is expected if the supports are held and if geopolitical tensions keep the markets on edge.

There are no bearish views as the support was held.

On larger terms, Gold continues to remain in a strong bullish grip and prices are expected to head higher.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1354 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1345. Longer term target $1392.
There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 09-13

Gold gained over $10 in a very volatile week of trade which was broadly affected by fundamentals surrounding the trade war. Gold had big swings on both upside and downside having a combined range of nearly $30 which was constituted by a rise in first half of the week and then a fall from highs over tensions easing in the later half. Even in this volatility it managed to close above the support of $1331 which indicates strength in the metal. Furthermore, some more action is expected on fundamental terms in coming weeks which could dictate the pricing but all in all the metal has taken support at 20 day moving average again and looks in a fairly good bullish trend.

On the chart –

Gold had a wild week testing both supports and resistances but managed to latch on to gains and eventually closed above the key level of $1331 which is positive for the metal going ahead. Fundamental developments will aid the prices in either direction but its expected to be on the positive side. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above $1331 suggests upside momentum could continue. If this support is held then it can move higher to $1345. If this is crossed it can rise towards $1362. If this big resistance area is taken out then it can create a fresh 52 week high of $1374.

2. Short trades remain muted in the given scene but if $1331 breaks it can slide to its support at $1317. And if this fails to hold it can fall towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls were back after a big red week but they failed to capitalize on the gains created in the early half of the week, still they won the week as they managed to close above the crucial $1331 mark which suggests more upside ahead after receiving a battering from highs in the later half of the week. From past few weeks gold is able to hang on to its 20 day moving average which is very positive for the bulls to keep the momentum going on the upside even if they fail in the week to manage gains. Such a move certainly indicates the breath is largely positive and new highs are on the cards.

There is no bearishness unless the supports get broken.

On the larger terms, Gold still remains sideways but now has a bullish bias. Metal is yet again confined in a range and a break of such will determine the outcome of the brawl going on from past few weeks, and chances of a break on upside is largely high.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.

There are no short trades unless $1331 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1317.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: April 02-06

Gold took a u-turn after hitting the resistance area and dropped over $35 from the highs before settling for cuts of over $20 for the week. Gold has been making lower highs and lower lows whenever it breaks out which is not a good sign for the bullish trend, but given the fact moreover every time the $1300 mark has been held gives impetus to the overall trend to remain bullish. Such a down move can be exclaimed as a retracement of the move from the lows of $1301-02 to the highs of $1356-57, and this may yet again act as a support zone for the coming week.

On the chart –

Gold had a pullback from the highs in a truncated week of trading and seems to have found support at the 38.2% mark of Fib retacement on closing basis. Still gold remains trapped in the range and was not able to carry the momentum it gained last week to break free. Thus the scene becomes same again –

1. Gold’s closing above the support indicates there might still be room for the upside but that can only happen if it takes out $1331. If this is taken out it can move towards $1345. If this area is held then it can move back higher to $1362. And if this big resistance zone is crossed it can head to fresh 52 week highs at $1374.

2. With gold becoming choppy and getting plowed back into the range again short trades can come effective if $1331 is defended. It can fall to the support at $1317. If this fails to hold it can further slide towards $1308.

Bullish view – Bulls were having the momentum on their side for the first half of the week but ultimately conceded the gains but managed to hang on to supports of Fib retracement as the key $1331 was broken. If they manage to hold on to supports then a rally back towards the highs cannot be ruled out though since it being in a range not much gains can be expected till its broken. Price action is choppy and confusing but supports need to hold for any upmove to continue though the overall trend remains bullish till $1300 is held.

Bearish view – Bears ousted the bulls yet again by not allowing them to continue the momentum from last week. The highs were taken as a good shorting opportunity and the price got eroded below the key level of $1331. Same goes for bears what went for bulls, in a choppy scenario much gains on the downside is also not expected unless $1300 breaks down.

On larger terms, Gold turned sideways again with a bearish bias as the closing was not upto the mark plus the pattern created has scope for both upside and downside. On a broader picture gold is still confined in a range and it must break on either side for a decisive trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1337 for the targets of $1345 and $1362 with a stop loss placed below $1331. Longer term target $1374.
There are no short trades unless $1317 breaks, and if it does still its limited to $1308.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: March 26-30

Gold rose more than $30 in the past week after bouncing off its support area at $1308. Such a move was on expected lines if the support was held and the size of the move was due to the low volatility seen in the previous weeks which was showing signs of accumulation and it sort of mirrored a catapult kind of move as the prices were held back and consolidating within a range then fired up breaking through the range. Gold had a good closing after a month as it managed to conquer $1345 on closing basis which is a bullish sign.

On the chart –

Gold had a big green week aided by a falling dollar index and key support levels being respected. Fundamentally the Fed outcome also helped the yellow metal as it turned the falling dollar index even weaker. We have 2 scenarios –

1. Gold’s closing above the $1345 mark suggests expansion in the range which it was caught in from last 3 weeks. If this is held then gold can move towards the resistance area of $1362. If this is taken out it can rise to fresh 52 week highs of $1374.

2. There are no short trades unless $1345 breaks and overall trend reverses, if it happens still it is limited to $1331.

Bullish view – Bulls were on a tear after 4 weeks of calmness as the supports were held which pressured the prices on the higher side. The low dollar index also favored the bulls who were able to break the range on the upside by having a good closing for the week suggesting a fresh 52 week high is on the offing. It was another big green bar which got created after a month nearly mirroring the amount of gains of the previous upmove. If this momentum is continued and if the fundamentals keep on supporting then gold can rise towards $1400 sooner than expected.

There is no bearish views as the range got broken on the upside which is favoring uptrend.

On larger terms, Gold has turned bullish as the range got broken on the upside suggesting more uptrend ahead.

Possible trades are on both sides but largely on long side, gold can be bought above $1350 for the targets of $1362 and $1374 with a stop loss placed below $1342.
Short trades are not the flavor but comes into the picture once $1345 breaks but still its limited to $1331.

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Gold’s weekly outlook: March 19-23

Gold had a fall of over $10 in a yet another range bound week. Price action has seemingly lost volatility and is confined within a strict 40$-45$ range. Last week gold found resistance at $1331 before retreating and falling to lows of $1309 where it found support of the 20 day moving average and bounced off. Technically the closing price is under the support of $1317 which suggests signs of bearishness which may lead it to test $1300 again. But if the 20 day moving average is respected then upmove cannot be ruled out but again it will be contained in the range.

On the chart –

Gold’s straight 3rd week of increasingly low volatility and sideways action offered little to the bulls and bears but it continued to register lower highs for 5th consecutive week. Resistances were respected so were the supports so it continues to be confusing but this week’s cut and closing suggests bias is more on the downside. We have 2 scenarios – 

1. Gold’s holding onto the support of 20 day moving average and a bounce from there suggests buying still may be present at lower levels. If the supports are held and if gold manages to cross $1317 it can go higher till $1331. If this resistance is crossed it can move towards $1345.

2. Gold had a poor closing which suggests it might retest the support at $1308 again. If this is breached then it can fall towards $1297.

Bullish view – Bulls are waning out on week to week basis and this is not good for the price action to move ahead with force. Only consolation bulls can take home is they were able to protect the downside via the support of 20 day moving average which was respected and prices bounced from there. For bulls holding of $1300 is the most important to keep themselves in the fray, till it is held they have can have a fight back to push the prices higher.

Bearish view – Bears are clear winners as one by one supports are getting broken on weekly basis. Bears were able to defend the $1331 mark and added to the downside pressure by pushing the prices towards 20 day moving average but failed to breach that, still they won the week as they managed to get the closing under the support of $1317. To keep the momentum on the downside they must defend $1317 and try to erode the support area of $1308.

On larger terms, Gold remains sideways with a bearish bias as the closing was not upto the mark and may lead to more downside. But on a broader picture gold is still confined in a range and it must break on either side for a decisive trend.

Possible trades are on both sides, gold can be bought above $1320 for the targets of $1331 and $1345 with a stop loss placed below $1317.
Short trades comes into the picture once $1308 breaks for the target of $1297 with a stop loss placed above $1314.

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